Monday Mashup

Monday Mashup - CHARt 1





8/20/15 LNCE | Black Book Presentation Replay


8/10/15 LWAY | Sitting on a Gold Mine with no Tools



Friday, August 21

LWAY | Ramps up production at newly refurbished facility in Wisconsin (click here for article)


Thursday, August 20

SYY | Elects Nelson Peltz and Josh Frank to Board of Directors (click here for article)

MKC | Completes acquisition of Stubb’s (click here for article)

MDLZ | Ardent Mills acquires Mondelez Canadian flour milling facility (click here for article)


Wednesday, August 19

KO | Pays roughly $90mm for 30% stake in Suja, as the fresh juice craze continues (click here for article)


Tuesday, August 18

HSY | Announced pricing of $300mm 1.6% notes due 2018 and $300mm 3.2% notes due 2025 (click here for article)

CAG | Darren Serrao, Campbell veteran moving to ConAgra to newly created position, Chief Growth Officer (click here for article)



Food and organic stocks that we follow outperformed the XLP last week. The XLP was down -4.9% last week, the top performer from our list was United Natural Foods (UNFI) posting an increase of +7.8%. Worst performing company on our list was once again Amira Natural Foods (ANFI), which was down -55.2%.

Monday Mashup - CHARt 2



From a quantitative perspective, the XLP is bearish on a TRADE and TREND duration.

Monday Mashup - CHART 3


Food and Organic Companies

Monday Mashup - CHART 4

Monday Mashup - CHART 5


Consolidated Consumer Staples Valuation

The stocks we follow in the consumer staples sector faired okay compared to the rest of the market last week. Valuations remain near two standard deviations above the five year average EV/EBITDA multiple. We are most likely in store for further correction in the space.


Monday Mashup - CHART 6


Keith’s Three Morning Bullets

  1. CRASH – not an inappropriate word to use given that on the 3-month duration alone, Oil (-37%), China (-31%) Emerging Markets (-26%), and Long-term Sov Bond Yields have crashed. This is a literal crashing of both US and Global growth expectations – we’re still at ½ of consensus forecasts
  2. HIKE? – oh definitely – they should hike. “It’s just 25 basis points, Keith” – yep. Have at it. Let’s see what happens. This risk of being too tight during both the cyclical and secular slowdown was only obvious to those who had the bearish growth and inflation views. Jackson Hole = Thursday
  3. VIX – the main challenge with modeling accurate risk management levels right now is that volatility is undergoing a major Phase Transition across durations – hard to explain in 140 characters or less but very easy to see the series of higher-highs going back 2yrs



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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

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REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

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Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

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Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

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We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

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Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

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Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

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Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

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Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

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