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We continue to be of the view the Fed’s decision to set the stage for monetary tightening throughout 2015 seems incredibly politicized (i.e. raising rates for the sake of raising rates), rather than "data dependent". The preponderance of the data remains unsupportive, at best, calling into question the Fed’s increasingly likely desire to acquiesce to consensus expectations with a rate hike in September [insert “circular reference warning” here].

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Is a Grave Policy Error Coming Next Month? - z1

Is a Grave Policy Error Coming Next Month? - z2

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Is a Grave Policy Error Coming Next Month? - z4U.S. Economic Summary Table

In the face of these confounding dynamics, we will take this opportunity to reiterate our bearish bias on all things reflation (commodities, energy stocks, materials stocks and emerging market capital and currency markets in particular), as well as our bullish bias on Treasury bonds, utility stocks and REITs as yields continue to fall amid declining inflation expectations.

Is a Grave Policy Error Coming Next Month? - z5