Why 266,300 Jobless Claims May Be a Recessionary Harbinger

Takeaway: After rolling SA claims hit 266.3k in April 2000, it took exactly one year for the economy to enter recession. This week's reading: 266.3k.

Why 266,300 Jobless Claims May Be a Recessionary Harbinger - z rec4444

 

With spot SA claims having hit a 42-year low four weeks ago, the rolling 4-week number has hit its own low of 266.3k this week. The last time rolling SA claims were at this level was the week ending April 15, 2000. Aside from that one week in 2000, this is the lowest level of rolling SA claims since December 1973.

 

For perspective, back in the late '90s, early '00s cycle, 266.3k was the lowest rolling SA claims would go. The following chart shows that from April 15, 2000 claims began to rise; the economy entered recession exactly one year later.

 

Why 266,300 Jobless Claims May Be a Recessionary Harbinger - z recession Claims9 2

 

Why 266,300 Jobless Claims May Be a Recessionary Harbinger - z rolling jobless Claims3

 

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