Takeaway: Headline may be benign, but a lot in this print should support our Short. We maintain our view that annual EPS likely to never grow again.
Conclusion. KSS remains our top short. Do we think that the wheels will completely fall off the story with this Thursday’s print? No. But we don’t think we’ll see any notable upside, and we expect to see key metrics erode in support of our bigger call on the name that annual earnings are likely to never grow again. To put that into context, we’ve got numbers between $3.50-$3.75 from 2016-18. That’s 40% below the consensus, which has earnings marching over $6.00. The stock may appear cheap to some at an 11% FCF Yield (the most common bull case we hear). But we’d argue two things…1) while numbers are coming down, department store yields have gone well above 20% (just ask Dillard’s), and 2) our model has a lot less margin and cash flow, and only a 6.5% FCF Yield at $3.75 in earnings. Lastly, unlike with Macy’s and Dillard’s, there is absolutely no real estate play with KSS. So when all is said and done, we’d be short KSS into this print, and if the company throws the bulls a bone – as it does from time to time – then we’d get heavier on it. This is as much of a ‘core short’ as we can find in this market.
Here’s a summary of the key things we’re looking for in this quarter…
Comps Get Tougher. The sales line should be the biggest ‘driver’ of this print on Thursday (with the caveat that earnings are really not growing). Expectations have come down considerably since 1Q where the buy side was looking for 4%+, and Consensus has walked numbers down from 2% (10bps lower then where it sat before the 1Q print) to 1.5% over the past month which helps explain the 5% sell off. The 1.5% seems achievable from where we sit, but assumes a positive 2yr comp -- something KSS has only printed once in the past 9 quarters (4Q14).
Then, comps get much tougher for the company with current consensus estimates assuming that the company accelerates sales sequentially on a 2yr run rate from the -0.9% number reported in the first quarter to 2.8% in the 4th quarter. We don’t believe that KSS’ current arsenal of sales drivers: personalization, loyalty, beauty, BOPIS is enough to reverse the 3yr trend of negative store comps.
If KSS has anything going for it this quarter, it’s that e-comm comps were extremely easy in the months of May and June (at 15% vs 30% in July). But, the company lapped the same benefit in the first quarter where comps were 12.4% and failed to realize the benefit. Traffic rank numbers which take into account both unique visits and page visits per user ended the quarter up in the mid 40% range, a slight acceleration from what we saw in 1Q. But, what we think is more notable is a) the accelerated ramp of JCP which is a big deal considering our works suggests that KSS was the biggest beneficiary of the JCP market share hemorrhage, and b) the relative underperformance of M compared to the group.
Management’s bull case for this year was predicated on improving merch margins due to tight inventory management. That was well and good when the company entered FY15 with a sales to inventory at a favorable 5% (the first positive spread in over 3 years), but the SIGMA trajectory inflected in a meaningful way to the downside headed out of 1Q against the easiest comp of the year. That almost never equates to a positive gross margin event. Management tried to downplay the margin headwind of 5% inventory growth by calling out the growth in National brands which carry a higher AUR (units per store were up 1% vs. last year), but that also comes with its own margin pressure.
On the DTC front, e-comm caused 42bps of dilution in the first quarter, and assuming a 20%+ growth rate in the DTC channel (which the company no longer discloses) that amounts to 30bps of headwind for the year assuming of course that there is no further deterioration in e-comm gross margins. That’s a big hit for a company like KSS to handle especially when you consider that the company started this new rewards programs which equates to 5% cash back, National Brand penetration growing (a conservative 4bps to 7bps of headwind for every 100bps of mix shift), and the current inventory position of the company.
It’s tough to reconcile the company’s guidance of 3-4% growth for the quarter after management guided to 4%-5% growth in 1Q and printed 1.6%. But what we do know is that…
No Change To Guidance
No matter what the company prints on Thursday, it’s pretty clear that the company won’t make any material changes to its FY guidance. The company updated its guidance policy last year, and noted that it would only update its Fiscal year numbers once in the 3rd quarter.
There hasn’t been a lot to like on the Management front at KSS over the past few months.
First, KSS ended its 14 month search for a new Chief Merchant when it decided to add responsibility to the plate of Michele Gass current Chief Customer Officer. With the entire global retail industry as a talent pool to source this position, Mansell picked the person who said very explicitly at the Analyst Day in October that 'love' would drive the business -- not once, or twice, but 19 times. Also, being a Chief Customer Officer (something that has no P&L responsibility or accountability) has nothing to do with being a Chief Merchant. This one will be hard for the bulls to defend.
And more recently, the company’s CIO, Janet Schalk, ended her 4 year tenure as CIO and jumped ship to Hudson's Bay citing a ‘great deal of uncertainty’ over the management transition taking place within the company centered around the hiring of a new yet to be named COO.
As noted in our Snyder’s-Lance (LNCE) earnings note this morning, we will be hosting a live Black Book presentation on August 19th at 11:00am ET.
We view LNCE as a high quality, small cap name in the Consumer Staples space. The company’s brands are well positioned in the snacking category to allow for sustainable volume growth and margin expansion for the next 3-5 years.
Their direct-store-delivery distribution network (DSD network) is vital to success. It allows LNCE to have feet on the street, being stewards of the brand, working with store management and making sure product is always on shelf. Think about the power Coca-Cola harnesses by having their own distribution network, this is the same thing but for snacks.
M&A opportunities are abundant for this company as they look across the landscape. Management has stated that when thinking about returning cash to shareholders the first thought is on M&A, share buybacks and dividends come second. Angie’s, KIND Snacks, Justin’s and thinkThin jump to mind as possible acquisition targets.
A lot more to come as we dig deeper over the next week. Right now we are seeing 25%+ upside to the name driven by robust organic volume growth and market share gains.
We will be speaking with the company this week to dive a little deeper into some of our questions. To the extent you have something you want answered, please email us by either responding to this note or to our email addresses included below.
Confirmation Number: 13616471
Materials: to be made available later
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SHAK is on the Hedgeye Restaurants Best Ideas list as a SHORT.
SHAK may be the second coming in the hamburger space, but its valuation reflects its superior status as a public company. That being said, I’m not telling you something you don’t already know.
I’m an old school restaurant analyst and I can’t get past what I see as a classic mistake being made by the management team. Instead of taking the conservative approach of building out its new units with a geographic concentration that allows for SHAK to maintain economies of scale and building brand awareness, management has gone the route that has been the death of nearly every concept that has tried. By opening stores in vast geographic locations, it’s nearly impossible for the young company to maintain its high standards of execution which make up the current brand cache!
This strategy is more commonly known as planting flags. With only 71 stores opened, if SHAK is successful with the current real estate strategy of planting flags globally, it would be the first company I have ever followed to successfully create shareholder value in this way. Of the 71 stores, there are 29 licensed SHAK’s opened in 8 different international countries.
So that makes the SHAK empire currently operating in 13 states and 8 countries! Amazing stuff for such a young company. In a consumer business in which maintaining brand integrity is critical, SHAK is pushing the envelope on growth making that integrity very hard to maintain.
Importantly, the company is not slowing down the aggressive geographic expansion. In 2Q15 the newest state the company added to the list is the first unit in Texas. Over the past year it has opened units in New York, New Jersey, Illinois and Florida. In 2016, the company plans to open new units in two new states, California and Arizona.
OTHER THINGS TO CONSIDER:
AGGRESSIVE PRICE INCREASES - Same-store sales increased 12.9% in 2Q15 versus a 4.5% last year. This consisted of a 4.3% increase in traffic, combined with an 8.6% increase in price and mix.
HEDGEYE - In a raging bull market, operating most of your stores in NYC, the company might be able to get away with this. Clearly, this is not sustainable and is inflating the margin structure of the company. What do you think will happen to margins when traffic slows and management needs to be more promotional?
LIMITED INFORMATION – In an unusual move for any restaurant company the comparable Shack store base includes only those Shacks that are open for 24 months or longer. Of course management feels that this “is the best comparison given the long honeymoon periods at our new Shacks.” A comp is a comp by the way! Therefore, the comparable Shack base in the second quarter of 2015 included only 16 Shacks compared to only 10 Shacks in the second quarter of 2014 in which NYC represents 37% and 60% of the comp base, respectively.
HEDGEYE – Until we see more stores enter the comp base in non-core markets, will we see how the company is really performing. Given the two year lag on getting stores in the base it could be an extended period. Two years is a long time and anything can happen to the brand status with consumers.
SIGN OF THINGS TO COME – Since-same store sales will provide only limited analysis on the company’s performance, average weekly sales will be more of a focus over time. In 2Q15, average weekly sales for domestic company-operated Shacks increased 7.4% to $102,000 for 2Q15 from $95,000 last year. This growth was significantly below the 2Q15 12.9% same-store sales figure. Additionally, average weekly sales figures were driven higher by menu price increases and the Las Vegas unit opening in 2H14.
HEDGEYE - I can only imagine what AUV’s would look like without the Las Vegas store. I suspect Joe day trader and the media don realize that average weekly sales over the long-term will be in a secular decline!
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