ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015

Takeaway: Investors continue to favor international equity funds, which took in +$3.8 billion last week maintaining a perfect inflow streak for 2015.

This note was originally published August 06, 2015. Click here for more information on how you can begin your Hedgeye subscription today.

Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Data and ETF Money Flow:

In the 5-day period ending July 29th, investors made net withdrawals from most asset classes but continued to allocate to international equity funds with a +$3.8 billion contribution. Investors have made positive subscriptions to international stock funds every week so far in 2015 aggregating to +$88.5 billion year-to-date. The source of funds continues to be domestic equities, with redemptions in 24 of 30 weeks so far in 2015. Year-to-date withdrawals in domestic stock funds now total -$83.5 billion, the worst 30 week start to any year this cycle. Additionally, investors have been backing off fixed income recently with fund flows to total fixed income mutual funds and ETFs having been negative in 6 out of the past 8 weeks.


ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - z cast fund flows 1

 

In the most recent 5-day period ending July 29th, total equity mutual funds put up net outflows of -$1.4 billion, trailing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$166 million and the 2014 average inflow of +$620 million. The outflow was composed of international stock fund contributions of +$3.8 billion and domestic stock fund withdrawals of -$5.2 billion. International equity funds have had positive flows in 48 of the last 52 weeks while domestic equity funds have had only 10 weeks of positive flows over the same time period.

 

Fixed income mutual funds put up net outflows of -$4.7 billion, trailing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$1.7 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$929 million. The outflow was composed of tax-free or municipal bond funds withdrawals of -$88 million and taxable bond funds withdrawals of -$4.6 billion.

 

Equity ETFs had net redemptions of -$1.9 billion, trailing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$2.3 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$3.2 billion. Fixed income ETFs had net inflows of +$384 million, trailing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$916 million and the 2014 average inflow of +$1.0 billion.

 

Mutual fund flow data is collected weekly from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) and represents a survey of 95% of the investment management industry's mutual fund assets. Mutual fund data largely reflects the actions of retail investors. Exchange traded fund (ETF) information is extracted from Bloomberg and is matched to the same weekly reporting schedule as the ICI mutual fund data. According to industry leader Blackrock (BLK), U.S. ETF participation is 60% institutional investors and 40% retail investors.   

 

Most Recent 12 Week Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from the ICI mutual fund survey and includes the weekly average for 2014 and the weekly year-to-date average for 2015:

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI2

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI3

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI4

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI5

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI6

 

 

Cumulative Annual Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the cumulative fund flow from the ICI mutual fund survey for each year starting with 2008.

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI12

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI13

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI14

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI15

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI16

 

 

Most Recent 12 Week Flow within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from Bloomberg's ETF database (matched to the Wednesday to Wednesday reporting format of the ICI), the weekly average for 2014, and the weekly year-to-date average for 2015. In the third table are the results of the weekly flows into and out of the major market and sector SPDRs:

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI7

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI8

 

 

Sector and Asset Class Weekly ETF and Year-to-Date Results: In sector SPDR callouts, the materials XLB ETF saw the highest percentage net withdrawal last week of -3% or -$65 million.

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI9

 

 

Cumulative Annual Flow in Millions within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the cumulative fund flow from Bloomberg's ETF database for each year starting with 2013.

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI17

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI18

 

 

Net Results:

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF flows against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a positive +$998 million spread for the week (-$3.3 billion of total equity outflow net of the -$4.3 billion outflow from fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52-week moving average is +$1.7 billion (more positive money flow to equities) with a 52-week high of +$27.9 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52-week low of -$18.1 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week.)

  

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI10

 

Exposures: The weekly data herein is important for the public asset managers with trends in mutual funds and ETFs impacting the companies with the following estimated revenue impact:

 

ICI Fund Flow Survey | International Equity Funds Batting 1.000 in 2015 - ICI11 

 

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT 

203-562-6500 

jcasteleyn@hedgeye.com 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

203-562-6500

jsteiner@hedgeye.com

 

 

 

 

 


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