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The Macro Show Replay | July 30, 2015

 


July 30, 2015

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BULLISH TRENDS

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BEARISH TRENDS

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PNRA | THE EVOLUTION CONTINUES

The Panera Bread Company (PNRA) is on the Hedgeye Restaurants Best Ideas list as LONG. 

 

PNRA reported 2Q15 results Tuesday after the close, followed by a rather extensive call yesterday morning. There continues to be plenty of noise within the results as management pulls certain levers and drives key growth initiatives. EPS for the quarter declined 7.5% YoY to $1.61 versus consensus estimates of $1.63. Revenue came in under estimates, reporting $676.7 million versus consensus of $679.5 million, growing 7.2% YoY. Company-owned comparable net bakery-café sales (SSS) increased 2.4% matching consensus, comprised of YoY transaction growth of 1.1% and average check growth of 1.3%. Very important to note that 3Q15 to date (first 27 days) company-owned comparable net bakery-café sales are up 4.7%, continuing the sequential monthly growth momentum (SSS were up 1.9% in April, 2.1% in May and 3.4% in June).

 

PNRA | THE EVOLUTION CONTINUES - PNRA CHART 1

PNRA | THE EVOLUTION CONTINUES - PNRA CHART 2

 

This quarter marked the 5th consecutive quarter of traffic growth for PNRA, showing strong performance versus the competition beating Black Box Intelligence traffic metrics by 290 basis points in 2Q.

PNRA | THE EVOLUTION CONTINUES - PNRA CHART 3

 

Management is showing great responsibility with price increases, modestly increasing prices to offset inflation, but keeping increases well below the competition. Black Box per person average check is up roughly ~3.4% for the quarter, largely reflective of wage pressures and minor commodity pressures across all markets and segments.

PNRA | THE EVOLUTION CONTINUES - PNRA CHART 4

 

PANERA 2.0 UPDATE

Strong progress is being made in converting stores to the Panera 2.0 concept, 77 conversions made in Q2 making it 181 total conversion in FY15 to date. In the 2H management is expecting to complete an additional 225 conversion, bringing the total for FY15 to ~400 stores. Performance of the three stores with 2.0 implemented for the longest period of time, 10 quarters, has been impressive, cumulative gross retail sales increased 33.6% or roughly 10% per year. As the team works on converting more stores, the longer they are in market the larger their impact, three to four quarters seems to be the sweet spot to realize strong growth. Panera 2.0 continues to be a strong growth initiative, projected to make a meaningful large scale impact by the 2H FY16.

 

OTHER GROWTH DRIVERS

Catering grew 9.2% in the quarter, strongest growth seen in some time. Catering now has a focused sales team, and utilizes the delivery hub where possible to take friction out of the store. Delivery continues to be a focus for the company, opened 15 delivery hubs in 2014, bringing the total to 29. Consumer packaged goods is growing and profitable, expected to have $175mm in retail sales in 2015, with a 3-year growth rate of 58% management is expecting this segment to be a $1bn business sometime in the future.

 

MANAGEMENT GUIDANCE

Management maintained guidance for the full year, of EPS to be flat to down mid- to high-single digits when compared to full year fiscal 2014. Full year SSS of 2-3.5%, operating margin contraction of 100-175 basis points, and G&A won’t be as favorable as it was in Q2. New unit expansion of 105-115 new bakery-cafes producing $43-$45k average weekly sales. Q3 comps are expected to come in a bit higher given the strong first 27 days. And management will continue to accelerate the pace of Panera 2.0 conversion in Q3.

 

HEDGEYE OUTLOOK

Management continuously mentioned an 18 month time frame till they start to see the positive effects of all their investments. We are even more confident than management and believe they are being conservative. We think PNRA will see an inflection point in about 12 months or 2Q16. At this point you will see an acceleration of earnings growth, and a clear line of sight to strong investment payback.


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A Risk Manager's Response to Today’s Fed Announcement

Editor’s Note: Below is an abridged commentary culled from various tweets posted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shortly after today’s Fed announcement.

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A Risk Manager's Response to Today’s Fed Announcement - Yellen cartoon 09.17.2014NEW

 

BREAKING: no change #FOMC

 

Anyone who understands cyclical growth slowing and deflation understands that the Fed made the right move. If they were to hike into a slowdown, they would be the catalyst for the next US recession.

 

Hedgeye reiterates the Slower (and Lower) for longer view

 

For those of you who were calling for the SEP hike = #wrong

 

"hike appropriate when we have labor and INFLATION improvement" July = #Deflation

 

We are just one more bad jobs report away from no DEC hike either.

 

USD and Rates should probably stay higher into what the manic media will read as a "good" GDP.  Don't trade the headline - look for the next catalyst.

 

I guess the Fed thinks Oil crashing (-22% in the last month) is "stability." Here's a chart of Oil instability (OVX = 30-40, sustained!) 

 

A Risk Manager's Response to Today’s Fed Announcement - z keith oil chart

 

Newsflash: the "pace of job gains" always peaks at the end of an economic cycle. Non-farm payroll "pace" of gains stopped accelerating in FEB. 

 

A Risk Manager's Response to Today’s Fed Announcement - z keith nfp chart

 

In other news, Biotech $IBB -1.9% on an up day - hyper growth expectations finally slowing too.

 

Where the real action is at today is on the "easy money" trade - Housing $ITB ripping +1.6%

 

This is the joke that has become Wall St selling "bullish economic" research- stocks only fly on slowing economic news!

 

 


McCullough: Roger Goodell Is The Biggest Loser In #DeflateGate

FOX Sports NFL Insider Mark Garafalo, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and FBN’s Sandra Smith debate the fallout from Deflategate with Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo. 

 

According to McCullough, "I have a problem with any central planner, in this case Goodell, head of a cartel, taking advantage of his position of power and manipulating the media."


Cartoon of the Day: Consensus

Cartoon of the Day: Consensus - consensus cartoon 07.29.2015

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in today's Early Look:

 

For those of you who have been following us since we called the US economic cycle top in late 2007, you know that there’s frequently an opposite faction to our most important Global Macro Themes – it’s called Wall Street consensus.

 

Not that we keep score or anything, but if you go back to what we thought were 3 of the most important (already in motion) Global Macro Risks 1-year ago today, they were: #Inflation Slowing, Rates Falling, and Cross Asset-Class Volatility bottoming.

 

All of those calls were based on forward looking indicators born out of a repeatable research and risk management #process. Today, the biggest disconnect between our indicators and consensus is #GrowthSlowing in the 2nd half of 2015 (in both the US and Europe)...

 


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