Monday Mashup

Monday Mashup - CHART 1

 

RECENT NOTES

7/24/15 SBUX | BEAST MODE

7/24/15 MCD | Right on Track

7/23/15 DFRG | HOPE IS NOT A PROCESS

7/22/15 CMG | Is a Friend to Investors not a Faux

7/21/15 FUNDAMENTAL WALK THROUGH | SBUX

7/20/15 MCD | FRANCHISEE NUMBERS SPEAK LOUDER THAN WORDS

 

RECENT NEWS FLOW

Friday, July 24

BWLD | Downgraded to neutral from buy at Dougherty & Co.  


Thursday, July 23

DNKN | In case you missed DNKN CEO blasting the NY wage board during their earnings call, here is a good summary (click here for article)

BWLD | Increases their credit facility from $100 million to $200 million (click here for 8-K)

SBUX | SBUX and PEP sign agreement to bring Starbucks ready-to-drink beverages to Latin America (click here for article)

 

Wednesday, July 22

DRI | Bondholders protest plan to spin off real estate (click here for article)

NY Board recommends phasing in $15 hourly wage (click here for article)

 

Tuesday, July 21

MCD | Might take all-day breakfast national (click here for article)

Lawmakers, White House explore tax revamp for U.S. firms with large overseas presence (click here for article)

 

Monday, July 20

DNKN | Announces plans for 26 new restaurants in Fresno and San Francisco (click here for article)

 

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Casual dining and quick service stocks, in aggregate, underperformed the XLY last week. The XLY was down -0.4%, top performer from casual dining was RT posting an increase of 10.8%, while CMG led the quick service pack up 10.5%.

 

Monday Mashup - CHARt 2

Monday Mashup - CHART 3

 

QUANTITATIVE SETUP

From a quantitative perspective, the XLY remains bullish on a TRADE and TREND duration.

 

Monday Mashup - CHART 4

 

CASUAL DINING RESTAURANTS


Monday Mashup - CHART 5

Monday Mashup - CHARt 6

 

QUICK SERVICE RESTAURANTS


Monday Mashup - CHARt 7

Monday Mashup - CHART 8


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

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7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

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Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

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GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

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Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

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Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

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Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

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People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

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UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

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Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

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Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

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An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

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