CALL TO ACTION
Two negatives emerging from the recent weekly numbers: The Galaxy Phase 2 ramp is not growing the market nor are changes to the transit visas. Sequentially, gaming volumes still appear to be in decline. Base Mass remains a particular concern of ours and we think the Street is implicitly underestimating the deterioration in that high margin segment. Hedgeye EBITDA estimates still fall 5-10% below the Street for 2015 and ~15% below for 2016.
We remain negative on the Macau stocks, particularly LVS and Sands China as their exposure to Base Mass and acute vulnerability to the new supply growth put them at a higher risk over the next 2 years.
Please see our detailed note: