INVITE (HOLX) | BEST IDEA UPDATE CALL... ROOM TO RUN, EVEN FROM "UP HERE"

Takeaway: We're hosting an update call Wendesday July 22. The path to $50... and higher.

INVITE (HOLX) | BEST IDEA UPDATE CALL... ROOM TO RUN, EVEN FROM "UP HERE" - 2015 07 15 Breast Health Accelerates

HOLX UPDATE CALL wednesday july 22

On Wednesday July 22 we are hosting a conference call and live studio event for institutional subscribers to review our outlook for HOLX.  We first added HOLX to the Hedgeye Best Idea List as a long in April 2014 when the stock was in the low $20s.  Since then, our original thesis has played out, with the stock doubling as we predicted, and many of the fundamental and sentiment drivers maturing on schedule.   We will review the path into the $50s on our call next week ahead of HOLX earnings report July 29.

 

CLICK HERE FOR ORIGINAL BEST IDEA NOTE

 

CLICK HERE FOR ORGINAL BEST IDEA PRESENTATION 

ROOM TO RUN, EVEN FROM HERE

The sensitivity table below makes use of our s-curve forecast model that is based on MQSA and our monthly count of 3D facilities published in the Tomo Tracker.  As we've published recently, consensus Breast Health revenue numbers are low compared to our model.  However, despite the large gap between our estimate and consensus, we view our estimates as conservative.  

 

As the table shows, if we accelerate the pace of adoption by even very small increments, the impact to revenue, EPS and valuation is substantial.

INVITE (HOLX) | BEST IDEA UPDATE CALL... ROOM TO RUN, EVEN FROM "UP HERE" - holx sensistivity

3d Tomo tracker 

Below are the monthly 3D Tomo Tracker update charts through June.   Our data on the facility counts with a 3D Tomo system allow us to update and forecast 3D adoption.  Our s-curve model currently has a variance of 0.13%  between predicted penetration and actual facility adoption between September 2012 and June 2015.  As seen in the revenue build table below, we believe Breast Health will drive substantial upside in the coming quarters beginning F3Q15 (Jun).

INVITE (HOLX) | BEST IDEA UPDATE CALL... ROOM TO RUN, EVEN FROM "UP HERE" - HOLX s curve June15

INVITE (HOLX) | BEST IDEA UPDATE CALL... ROOM TO RUN, EVEN FROM "UP HERE" - HOLX 3D monthly June15

INVITE (HOLX) | BEST IDEA UPDATE CALL... ROOM TO RUN, EVEN FROM "UP HERE" - holx sensistivity

 

Please call or email with questions.

 

Thomas Tobin
Managing Director 

@HedgeyeHC

 

Andrew Freedman

Analyst

@HedgeyeHIT 

 


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