No Worries?

Client Talking Points

CHINA

They unhalted 250 names overnight (793 are still halted) and the Shanghai Composite Casino couldn’t hold it’s 3-day gains. The Sganhai Composite closed -1.2% and remains in crash mode (down -24% month-over-month) < @Hedgeye TREND resistance of 4,275. 

#EUROPESLOWING

If only they didn’t have to report the JUN and JUL data! Eurozone ZEW (economic sentiment) slows to 42.7 JUL vs 53.7 JUN as JUN CPI/PPIs across the board stops “recovering” – German CPI 0.3% JUN, Spain’s 0.1, Sweden slows to -0.4 vs +0.1 last.

OIL

Commodity (and Junk Debt) #Deflation = on as long as this Down Euro begging remains and Janet Yellen doesn’t get as dovish as the data is getting; WTI -1.9% with no immediate-term support to $49.08. Natutal Gas looks like a great short here too.

 

**The Macro Show - CLICK HERE to watch today's edition at 8:30AM ET with a full lineup including CEO Keith McCullough, Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin, Financials Sector Head Josh Steiner and Macro Analyst Darius Dale.

Asset Allocation

CASH 53% US EQUITIES 3%
INTL EQUITIES 6% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 29% INTL CURRENCIES 9%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
GIS

General Mills remains on the Hedgeye Consumer Staples Best Ideas list as a LONG. GIS has a lot of things going for it and they are going to show it in the top and bottom line this year. Over the last couple of months, the company has announced the removal of artificial colors and flavors from their cereals. More recently, they have committed to using only cage-free eggs.  Many of these small actions that management is taking are going to have a snowball effect as they go throughout FY16. Below is a list of some of the biggest things that we are looking forward to this year:

  1. Yoplait in China
  2.  Gluten-Free Cheerios
  3. No artificial colors or flavors in the cereal
  4. Granola innovation / Muesli
  5. Greek Plenti / Whips
  6. Original yogurt sugar reduction
  7. Renovation on Grain Snacks
  8. Strong push on Natural & Organic products
  9. Delivering Value to consumer on brands like Totino’s and Hamburger Helper
  10. Bringing U.S. innovation International
PENN

Gaming, Lodging and Leisure Sector Head Todd Jordan reiterates his team's bullish high-conviction thesis on Penn National Gaming. The company remains one of our favorite names on the long side and boasts the best new unit growth story in domestic gaming. Jordan further notes that with more states releasing their June gaming revenues this past week, we feel more confident in our higher than consensus Revenue, EBITDA, and EPS estimates.

TLT

Long-term Treasury rates remain the best proxy for forward-looking growth expectations. We outline three components of secular stagnation below to explain the SAVINGS/INVESTMENT GLUT that is at the heart of the academic argument for current policy measures:

  1. Negative demographic trends globally (decline in population growth and aging population)
  2. Reduced capital intensity in leading industries (think of the capital and labor required to start Facebook over U.S. Steel)
  3. Falling relative prices of capital goods       

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

VIDEO: This Could Crash The Market  https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/45178-mccullough-this-could-crash-the-market… via @hedgeye

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Commitment is the enemy of resistance, for it is the serious promise to press on, to get up, no matter how many times you are knocked down.

David McNally

STAT OF THE DAY

Nationally, Canadian Home Prices have risen around 160% since the turn of the millennium.


Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more