ACA Medicaid enrollment and spending
The data through 2Q15 shows a persistent positive consumption trend driven by the Medicaid expansion under the ACA. Per enrollee spending remains elevated, which is consistent with pent-up demand of the newly insured. Below, we forecast Medicaid enrollment through 2016 using the rate of change for the most recent months of enrollment data. We expect growth of Medicaid enrollment to slow into 2H15 while continuing to monitor per enrollee spending for signs of a reversion to Pre-ACA levels. Slowing enrollment and negative per enrollee spending in future periods remains a key risk for the US Medical Economy.
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