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McCullough: A Demographic 'Train Wreck' In China

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Hedgeye Risk Management CEO Keith McCullough and XLR-8 Founder Bob Nardelli discussed the implications of China’s stock selloff and economic headwinds facing Beijing with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business.

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McCullough: A Demographic 'Train Wreck' In China - z km


MATERNITY TRACKER UPDATE | JULY -1.7%

Takeaway: Births slowing, although 2Q15 looking better than we initially anticipated.

MATERNITY TRACKER UPDATE |  JULY -1.7%  - maternity tracker July 2015

NATIONAL AND LOCAL SLOWING

Our Maternity Tracker continues to update with high frequency.  The data appears to run with a high degree of fidelity with CDC birth data reported through December 2014 with an R-square of 0.89.  

 

The Maternity Tracker shows a slowing trend across the months of April to July.  The April trend has been updated to cover a significant data gap we uncovered during our validation process.  As a result, April 2015 reversed what we believed previously to be a negative trend to +1.8% nationally.  

MD & HCA SLOWING

MD: We remain short MD, but the maternity trend has not developed to the downside at our previously anticipated pace for 2Q15. Our best estimate for 2Q15 is +0.7% based on the state-weighted trend.  We will be reviewing other data including ACA Tracker data (published shortly) and the Delivery Index from the June OB/GYN Survey (published shortly).

 

HCA: The state-weighted growth rate for HCA is starting off 2Q15 strong, but has since weakened alongside national trends.  Similar to MD, we'll be rolling up additional data to look at the probability of a positive pre-announcement for 2Q15.  Our preliminary look at Medicaid enrollment, per enrollee spending as well as the JOLTS data released yesterday, suggest the answer is yes, but we'll have more later.  We covered this data yesterday in the studio -->  CLICK HERE

 

MATERNITY TRACKER UPDATE |  JULY -1.7%  - MD HCA table maternity tracker

 

Thomas Tobin

Managing Director 

@HedgeyeHC

 

Andrew Freedman

Analyst

@HedgeyeHIT 

 


Keith McCullough Walks Through Real-Time Alerts at 2:00PM ET

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough will answer your questions about Real-Time Alerts live today at 2:00PM ET. 

 

 
 

 

Get involved! There are two ways you can ask Keith questions:

  • Tweet us your questions via @Hedgeye with the #RTALive hashtag 
  • Ask questions in the chat box below the video player

If you are unable to watch this live, the replay will be available at the same link immediately following the completion of the show.


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This is Why Eurocrats Fear a Greek Exit

 

On today's edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye Macro Analysts Darius Dale and Matt Hedrick had a lengthy discussion about the ongoing turmoil in Greece, exploring how the remaining Eurozone countries would be affected if the Greeks leave.

 

Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 

 

Subscribe to Hedgeye on YouTube for all of our free video content.

 


July 8, 2015

July 8, 2015 - HE DTR 7 8 15


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