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The Macro Show Replay | July 8, 2015

 


INVITE | Should You Rethink Your Assumptions? Airline Black Book July 14th @1PM ET

Airline shares have been enormously volatile in the last year as concerns about intensifying competition have largely offset the initial gains from lower fuel.  Given the recent drop, is the potential upside worth the risk?  Are airlines actually undervalued ‘real’ businesses?  Has consolidation really changed the behavior in the industry?  How has competition evolved from both a top-down and bottom-up perspective?  We will present a black book examining the myths, half-truths, and genuine progress in the US airline industry on July 14th at 1PM.

 

Highlights

  • A Long View of Airlines:  Valuation, capacity sensitivities, adjusted performance
  • Fleet Dynamics:  Lower fuel, capacity trends, historical drivers
  • UAL Update:  Changing tactics, problem generating cash
  • Consolidation:  Competitive intensity, cream skimming, industry comparisons, so-called collusion
  • Industry Changed?  Vehicles & strategy to reduce the odds of being the greater fool

 

INVITE | Should You Rethink Your Assumptions?  Airline Black Book July 14th @1PM ET - ual lt margin

 

INVITE | Should You Rethink Your Assumptions?  Airline Black Book July 14th @1PM ET - ual cds2

 

Call Details
Dial-in and a link to the materials will be distributed in a reminder e-mail prior to the call.


Cartoon of the Day: Balloons Over Beijing

Cartoon of the Day: Balloons Over Beijing - China cartoon 07.07.2015

"China needs to pull a Greek-style central-market-planning move and halt trading of any stock that has gravity-based-volatility," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in his market note this morning. "Despite 203 tickers halted, the Shanghai Composite lost another -1.3% overnight, taking its crash in the last month to -25.8%."


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Absurdity of The Day: China Steals Page Out of Greek Playbook, Shuts Down Trading In 200 Stocks

 

On today's edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough has a reminder for members of the media who can’t stop talking about capital controls in Greece: China is at it too, having shut down more than 200 stocks in the Shanghai Composite due to "volatility."

 

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CALL INVITE | LONG MCD TOMORROW at 11:00AM ET

We are adding MCD to the Hedgeye Best Ideas list as a LONG.  As I said last week, 2015 will be the last time MCD will trade below $100 on an average price basis!

 

We will be hosting a live McDonald’s Black Book call on Wednesday, July 8th at 11am ET.

 

After nearly four years of being bearish on MCD, it’s now time to reverse course.  We are confident that MCD is not a structurally broken company.  Importantly, there are a number of initiatives in place that will ultimately reverse the fortunes of the company. 

 

Yes, fixing McDonald’s operationally will take time, but the seeds have been planted.  From the work I have done, by 2016 it will be clear that MCD is well on its way to reasserting itself as the dominate company that it is. 

 

McDonald’s CEO, Steve Easterbrook, is reshaping the company from the inside out and the financial impact of these actions are about to be clear.  Returning MCD to sustainable growth is centered on structural changes to the operating model and a recommitment to regaining the trust and loyalty of customers.

 

These changes are taking place in Oak Brook and at the local level.  Within McDonald’s local management and franchisees working together to improve the McDonald’s experience.  The new experience is consistent with what made the company great in the first place.

 

While financial engineering is part of the new foundation, its limitations are obvious so understanding how an operationally led turnaround will unfold is critical to make a longer-term commitment to being LONG MCD.

 

The LONG MCD BLACK BOOK will focus on:

  • How the new operating structure of the company is breathing new ENERGY into the company including improved profitability
  • The primary cause for the market share losses in the USA over the past three years and how the company is fixing it
  • The timeline for the turn in sentiment and performance  
  • Updated financials

 

CALL DETAILS

Toll Free:

Toll:

Confirmation Number: 13613786

Materials: CLICK HERE

 

As always, our prepared remarks will be followed by a live, anonymous Q&A session. Please submit your questions to .

 


REPLAY | $HCA, $ATHN, $MDSO and $HOLX Updates from Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin

Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin and Analyst Andrew Freedman shared key takeaways from last week's jobs report and the impact on HCA Holdings, Hologic, athenahealth and Medidata Solutions in their weekly Q&A earlier today. 

 


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