• run with the bulls

    get your first month

    of hedgeye free


INVITE | Should You Rethink Your Assumptions? Airline Black Book July 14th @1PM ET

Airline shares have been enormously volatile in the last year as concerns about intensifying competition have largely offset the initial gains from lower fuel.  Given the recent drop, is the potential upside worth the risk?  Are airlines actually undervalued ‘real’ businesses?  Has consolidation really changed the behavior in the industry?  How has competition evolved from both a top-down and bottom-up perspective?  We will present a black book examining the myths, half-truths, and genuine progress in the US airline industry on July 14th at 1PM.



  • A Long View of Airlines:  Valuation, capacity sensitivities, adjusted performance
  • Fleet Dynamics:  Lower fuel, capacity trends, historical drivers
  • UAL Update:  Changing tactics, problem generating cash
  • Consolidation:  Competitive intensity, cream skimming, industry comparisons, so-called collusion
  • Industry Changed?  Vehicles & strategy to reduce the odds of being the greater fool


INVITE | Should You Rethink Your Assumptions?  Airline Black Book July 14th @1PM ET - ual lt margin


INVITE | Should You Rethink Your Assumptions?  Airline Black Book July 14th @1PM ET - ual cds2


Call Details
Dial-in and a link to the materials will be distributed in a reminder e-mail prior to the call.

Cartoon of the Day: Balloons Over Beijing

Cartoon of the Day: Balloons Over Beijing - China cartoon 07.07.2015

"China needs to pull a Greek-style central-market-planning move and halt trading of any stock that has gravity-based-volatility," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in his market note this morning. "Despite 203 tickers halted, the Shanghai Composite lost another -1.3% overnight, taking its crash in the last month to -25.8%."

Absurdity of The Day: China Steals Page Out of Greek Playbook, Shuts Down Trading In 200 Stocks


On today's edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough has a reminder for members of the media who can’t stop talking about capital controls in Greece: China is at it too, having shut down more than 200 stocks in the Shanghai Composite due to "volatility."


Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 


Subscribe to Hedgeye on YouTube for all of our free video content.



We are adding MCD to the Hedgeye Best Ideas list as a LONG.  As I said last week, 2015 will be the last time MCD will trade below $100 on an average price basis!


We will be hosting a live McDonald’s Black Book call on Wednesday, July 8th at 11am ET.


After nearly four years of being bearish on MCD, it’s now time to reverse course.  We are confident that MCD is not a structurally broken company.  Importantly, there are a number of initiatives in place that will ultimately reverse the fortunes of the company. 


Yes, fixing McDonald’s operationally will take time, but the seeds have been planted.  From the work I have done, by 2016 it will be clear that MCD is well on its way to reasserting itself as the dominate company that it is. 


McDonald’s CEO, Steve Easterbrook, is reshaping the company from the inside out and the financial impact of these actions are about to be clear.  Returning MCD to sustainable growth is centered on structural changes to the operating model and a recommitment to regaining the trust and loyalty of customers.


These changes are taking place in Oak Brook and at the local level.  Within McDonald’s local management and franchisees working together to improve the McDonald’s experience.  The new experience is consistent with what made the company great in the first place.


While financial engineering is part of the new foundation, its limitations are obvious so understanding how an operationally led turnaround will unfold is critical to make a longer-term commitment to being LONG MCD.


The LONG MCD BLACK BOOK will focus on:

  • How the new operating structure of the company is breathing new ENERGY into the company including improved profitability
  • The primary cause for the market share losses in the USA over the past three years and how the company is fixing it
  • The timeline for the turn in sentiment and performance  
  • Updated financials



Toll Free:


Confirmation Number: 13613786

Materials: CLICK HERE


As always, our prepared remarks will be followed by a live, anonymous Q&A session. Please submit your questions to .


REPLAY | $HCA, $ATHN, $MDSO and $HOLX Updates from Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin

Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin and Analyst Andrew Freedman shared key takeaways from last week's jobs report and the impact on HCA Holdings, Hologic, athenahealth and Medidata Solutions in their weekly Q&A earlier today. 



TODAY (July 7th) at 1pm ET we will be hosting our highly-anticipated Quarterly Macro Themes conference call.  Led by CEO Keith McCullough, the presentation will detail the THREE MOST IMPORTANT MACRO TRENDS we have identified for the quarter and the associated investment implications. 




#ConsumerCycle: Consumption peaks late cycle and with domestic and global growth set to slow alongside easing inflation comps in 2H15, it looks increasingly likely 1H15 marked the current cycle peak in household spending growth.  We'll contextualize the current cycle, discuss the implications and detail how best to be counter-cyclically positioned as the consumer cycle enters its twilight. 


#SecularStagnation: Amid consensus expectations for a return to “normal” economic conditions, our analysis shows ample evidence of secular stagnation. In light of that, we reiterate our “lower-for-longer” thesis on growth, inflation and interest rates and continue to find the FOMC’s hawkish guidance wholly misplaced.


#EuropeSlowing: With our proprietary GIP (growth, inflation, policy) model we’ll outline the top 6 European economies that will be most impacted by real GDP growth slowing as inflation accelerates in the back half of 2015. The timing of ECB head Mario Draghi’s eventual response will be critical in terms of risk managing the EUR/USD exchange rate, as well as any associated spillover risks.



  • U.S. Toll-Free Number:
  • U.S. Toll Number:
  • Confirmation Number: 13612090
  • Materials:  CLICK HERE (the slides will be available approximately one hour prior to the start of the call)

As always, our prepared remarks will be followed by a live, anonymous Q&A session. Please submit your questions to .


Also, for those of you who cannot join us live, we will be distributing a replay video of the call shortly after it concludes.


Kind regards,


The Hedgeye Macro Team



real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.