We will host a conference call TODAY, Tuesday, July 7th at 11am ET to discuss the latest Macau data, our outlook on the market and the stocks and the presentation of a new, original research topic.
RELEVANT TICKERS INCLUDE:
LVS, WYNN, MGM, MPEL, 0027.HK, 1128.HK, 1928.HK, 2282.HK, 6883.HK, and 0880.HK.
- Details behind June’s disappointing performance
- Discussion of Base Mass trends including an analysis of table minimum bets
- The “true” performance of the Mass segment after adjustment for smoking ban related table reclassifications
- Revised 2015 monthly market projections
- Q2 earnings preview: Hedgeye company EBITDA estimates vs the Street (LVS, WYNN, MGM, MPEL, and Galaxy Entertainment)
- How has Galaxy Phase 2 impacted the market, the other concessionaires, and what should we expect going forward?
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"After introducing single-shot Hedgeye Cartoons in the last year," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's morning market note, "we may have to resort to full-form illustrative children’s books in order to explain this Greek debt drama."
The Euro is down on the “NO” news out of Greece and the risk range here is widening again to $1.09-1.13. That should be respected as it’s:
A) A leading indicator for rising volatility in Foreign currencies and Commodities and
B) An explicit #deflation risk on signal (think inflation expectations of things like Oil and low-quality peripheral debt).
On a related note, WTI Oil is getting smashed for a -4.8% loss this morning. (That’s after a -6.7% drop last week.) It’s down -44% year-over-year.
The #StrongDollarDeflation risk remains for most things levered to inflation expectations (including junk debt) – this is why big beta to “reflation” is in drawdown mode again.
***Finally, if you haven’t read it already… Make sure to check out this special contributor insight on the Gong Show in Greece from our good friend Daniel Lacalle. He knows this story inside out.
Takeaway: Bad 2H inventory setup for retailers comes just in time for higher wage and shipping costs.
SIGMA Update - Bad 2H inventory setup just in time for higher wage and shipping costs
We sent out our updated SIGMA book for about 100 companies on Thursday. We picked out a few of the gnarlier looking charts. Most them are department stores -- or companies with no square footage growth. We're not playing favorites. They simply looked the worst. Regardless, there's one thing that is undeniable...these retailers are heavier on inventory heading into 2H than they'd probably like. With wage pressure building beginning in August (courtesy of Wal-Mart, McDonalds, etc...) and higher dot.com costs (freight) headed into holiday, we still think we're going to see a sharp deceleration in EPS growth for US Retail.
Notable Employment Callout
This is from one of Keith McCullough's notes to clients last night.
With Greece, it’ll be convenient for the Bullish Growth (rates up) camp to forget Friday’s jobs report. But this cycle data doesn’t cease to exist. Instead of writing more words, you can follow the cycle (in rate of change terms) using Crayola. I still say the US labor cycle peaked in FEB 2015.
Don’t forget that NFP peaks, on average, 3 months AFTER the economic cycle (GDP) has peaked. The US employment cycle peaked, right on time.
NKE - World Cup: Nike adds a third star to United States uniform
Ashley Furniture HomeStore to Open Multiple Canadian Locations
PYPL - PayPal on hunt for takeovers after eBay split
BRIEF-Puma and Kering Eyewear sign partnership agreement for optical frames and sunglasses
SHLD - Sears Holding Corporation Announces Expiration And Over-Subscription Of Seritage Growth Properties Rights Offering
Tory Burch Sets Paris Flagship
BLKIA - Bain, Sycamore Circle Belk Inc.
Joe’s Receives Forbearance From Creditors
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
LONG SIGNALS 80.52%
SHORT SIGNALS 78.70%