Referendums Have (Deflationary) Consequences

The Euro is down on the “NO” news out of Greece and the risk range here is widening again to $1.09-1.13. That should be respected as it’s:

A) A leading indicator for rising volatility in Foreign currencies and Commodities and

B) An explicit #deflation risk on signal (think inflation expectations of things like Oil and low-quality peripheral debt).

Referendums Have (Deflationary) Consequences  - z GREECE 07.06.15 chart

On a related note, WTI Oil is getting smashed for a -4.8% loss this morning. (That’s after a -6.7% drop last week.) It’s down -44% year-over-year.

The #StrongDollarDeflation risk remains for most things levered to inflation expectations (including junk debt) – this is why big beta to “reflation” is in drawdown mode again.

***Finally, if you haven’t read it already… Make sure to check out this special contributor insight on the Gong Show in Greece from our good friend Daniel Lacalle. He knows this story inside out.