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Editor's Note: This is an excerpt and chart from today's morning strategy note written by senior macro analyst Darius Dale. Click here to subscribe.

...[T]he indicator that is probably the most consistent is Initial Jobless Claims. Specifically, the rolling six-month average in this series has oscillated in a band of ~300k to ~600k over the previous three economic cycles. Even more consistent is its signaling capability as it relates to timing the onset of recession. Specifically, a recession has commenced 18 months, 19 months and 20 months after this indicator has breached 300k to the downside and/or toughed as it did at 305k in April of 2006.

CHART OF THE DAY: Recession Watch (Keep An Eye On This Key Indicator) - z Chart of the Day