HOLX | 3D UPDATE | SOFTER JUNE BUT ON PACE TO BEAT

HOLX remains a Best Idea Long

 

s-curve working Well

The s-curve model continues to forecast facility conversion to 3D with low variance between actual and predicted values.  Monthly average variance is 0.13% with a standard deviation of 0.09%.  The current 3D facility conversion percentage is 12.3% on the 14.737 total MQSA certified facilities.

HOLX | 3D UPDATE | SOFTER JUNE BUT ON PACE TO BEAT - HOLX s curve June15

 

June PLACEMENTS slow, but quarterly pace accelerating

Monthly facility conversions slowed in June 2015 after posting a record in May 2015. The quarterly average continues to accelerate consistent with recent conference comments from management.

HOLX | 3D UPDATE | SOFTER JUNE BUT ON PACE TO BEAT - HOLX 3D monthly June15

 

consensus Breast Health too low

Our revenue build uses the inputs from our 3D Tracker and the s-curve forecast to arrive at a facility count.  Consensus assumes little to no sequential growth in Breast Health over the coming quarters.

HOLX | 3D UPDATE | SOFTER JUNE BUT ON PACE TO BEAT - HOLX rev build June15

 

Please call or email with questions.

 

Thomas Tobin
Managing Director 

@HedgeyeHC

 

Andrew Freedman

Analyst

@HedgeyeHIT 

 

 

 


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