We will be hosting our highly-anticipated Quarterly Macro Themes conference call on Tuesday, July 7th at 1:00PM ET. Led by CEO Keith McCullough, the presentation will detail the THREE MOST IMPORTANT MACRO TRENDS we have identified for the quarter and the associated investment implications.
Q3 2015 MACRO THEMES OVERVIEW:
#SecularStagnation: Amid consensus expectations for a return to “normal” economic conditions, our analysis shows ample evidence of secular stagnation. In light of that, we reiterate our “lower-for-longer” thesis on growth, inflation and interest rates and continue to find the FOMC’s hawkish guidance wholly misplaced.
#EuropeSlowing: With our proprietary GIP (growth, inflation, policy) model we’ll outline the top 6 European countries that will be most impacted by real-GDP slowing as inflation accelerates in the back half of 2015. The timing of ECB head Mario Draghi’s eventual response will be critical in terms of risk managing the EUR/USD exchange rate, as well as any associated spillover risks.
#ConsumerCycle: Consumption peaks late cycle and with domestic and global growth set to slow alongside easing inflation comps in 2H15 it looks increasingly likely 1H15 marked the current cycle peak in household spending growth. We'll contextualize the current cycle, discuss the implications and detail how best to be counter-cyclically positioned as the consumer cycle enters its twilight.
- U.S. Toll-Free Number:
- U.S. Toll Number:
- Confirmation Number: 13612090
- Materials: CLICK HERE (the slides will be available approximately one hour prior to the start of the call)
Also, for those of you who cannot join us live, we will be distributing a replay video of the call shortly after it concludes.
The Hedgeye Macro Team
In response to a subscriber question on today's edition of RTA Live, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains how he views his risk ranges relative to a security's trend, whether BULLISH or BEARISH.
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This is one of the biggest things that gets people run over on the long side. When volatility storms back in a hurry (i.e. a volatility move of 34% yesterday on front-month VIX) that’s going to leave a mark.
To put this into context, it was the first down day (of over 2%) for the S&P 500 since October which is a long time ago. In the last two years, we’ve only had five market-down days of over 2%. Only five.
Now if that sounds like “not a lot of market-down days,” you’re right. If you go back to 2011, you had twenty market-down days of greater than 2%. And that’s when what was happening?
- Europe was slowing
- Europe went into crisis
- US blamed their own slowing on Europe
- Bonds went up
Oh the memories, the memories…
Takeaway: We are removing Hibbett Sports (HIBB) from Investing Ideas (SHORT).
Please be advised that we are removing HIBB (as a short) from Investing Ideas today. According to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough:
Oversold, finally – and I wanted to take the short idea off after a big market correction. We can always put it back on higher. Retail Sector Head Brian McGough's research view has not changed.