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Is This the Return of Volatility? | $VIX

Volatility

 

Is This the Return of Volatility? | $VIX - z turb

 

This is one of the biggest things that gets people run over on the long side. When volatility storms back in a hurry (i.e. a volatility move of 34% yesterday on front-month VIX) that’s going to leave a mark. 

 

To put this into context, it was the first down day (of over 2%) for the S&P 500 since October which is a long time ago.  In the last two years, we’ve only had five market-down days of over 2%. Only five.

 

Is This the Return of Volatility? | $VIX - zz 06.30.15 chart

 

Now if that sounds like “not a lot of market-down days,” you’re right. If you go back to 2011, you had twenty market-down days of greater than 2%. And that’s when what was happening?

 

  • Europe was slowing
  • Europe went into crisis
  • US blamed their own slowing on Europe
  • Bonds went up

 

Oh the memories, the memories… 



HIBB: Removing Hibbett Sports from Investing Ideas (SHORT)

Takeaway: We are removing Hibbett Sports (HIBB) from Investing Ideas (SHORT).

Please be advised that we are removing HIBB (as a short) from Investing Ideas today. According to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough:

 

Oversold, finally – and I wanted to take the short idea off after a big market correction. We can always put it back on higher. Retail Sector Head Brian McGough's research view has not changed.

 

HIBB: Removing Hibbett Sports from Investing Ideas (SHORT) - z hibb


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The #1 Thing In My Macro Notebook Today (No, It's Not Greece)

Editor's Note: This is an excerpt from Hedgeye morning research. Click here for more info.

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The #1 Thing In My Macro Notebook Today (No, It's Not Greece) - z china 06.30.15 chart

 

Some sneaky central planning dudes in Beijing stole the Greek headlines overnight by floating some rumor action (National Pension Fund buying!) out there. Yep. That’ll get your attention in an illiquid market. This fueled the biggest intraday move in the Shanghai Composite Casino since 1992!

 

Shanghai closed up +5.5% after being down 14% in the three prior days. Ex-Thailand (down -0.9%) Asian Equities were pretty much green across the board.

 

If you’re trading China and you don’t have your seat-belt on, please fasten it.

 

Also, in case you were wondering, the Chinese are doing this because the economic data there continues to be a disappointment.

 

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RTA Live: June 30, 2015

 

 

Get involved! There are two ways you can ask Keith questions:

  • Tweet us your questions via @Hedgeye with the #RTALive hashtag 
  • Ask questions in the chat box below the video player

If you are unable to watch this live, the replay will be available at the same link immediately following the completion of the show.


Retail Callouts (6/30): Solid Chain Store Sales Number, BONT Sale Leaseback

Takeaway: Chain Store Sales Put Up a Big Number, Need to See More as Comps Remain Difficult | BONT sale leaseback = defense, not offense.

Chain Store Sales Put Up a Big Number, Need to See More as Comps Remain Difficult

Takeaway: After a noticeable sequential slowdown in the 1-yr trend line last week, we saw a meaningful acceleration against tough comps from 2014 translating to the best 2yr comp reading we've seen reported in 2015. We'll need to see more of the same as comps remain difficult across retail until we get through September and BTS.

Retail Callouts (6/30): Solid Chain Store Sales Number, BONT Sale Leaseback - 6 30 chart1

Retail Callouts (6/30): Solid Chain Store Sales Number, BONT Sale Leaseback - 6 30 chart2

 

BONT - The Bon-Ton Stores, Inc. Announces Sale-Leaseback Agreement

(http://investors.bonton.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=919749)

 

Takeaway: This isn't an offensive move by BONT, and the market said as much yesterday. The deal covers 20% of BONT's 30 owned properties and the deal terms aren't overly attractive. Plus, we think it's hard to justify paying ~$15 per square foot for department store pads in markets like Milwaukee, Green Bay, and Joliet. These stores are some of the company's most attractive doors with sales per square foot 170% to 350% above the fleet average. So, why didn't BONT monetize more doors -- if these are the terms WP Carey was willing to pay, it's entirely possible that the company didn't want more of what BONT was offering.

 

 

OTHER NEWS

 

KSS - Kohl’s Corporation Announces $600,000,000 Cash Tender Offer for Certain Notes

(http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=60706&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2063299)

 

TUES - Tuesday Morning Corporation Announces CFO Departure

(http://ir.tuesdaymorning.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=920036)

 

PIR - Pier 1 Imports Appoints Retail Industry Veteran Jeffrey N. Boyer Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

(http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=117517&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2063599)

 

TGT, RAD - Ex-Target exec to lead store ops for Rite Aid

(http://www.retailingtoday.com/article/ex-target-exec-lead-store-ops-rite-aid)

 

Authentic Brands Group Acquires Tretorn

(http://wwd.com/business-news/mergers-acquisitions/authentic-brands-group-tretorn-acquisition-10173169/)

 

Kering - Potential Suitors Emerge for Sergio Rossi

(http://wwd.com/business-news/financial/sergio-rossi-buyer-kering-lion-capital-emerisque-10172901/)

 

Barneys to Open Men’s Store in San Francisco

(http://wwd.com/retail-news/designer-luxury/barneys-mens-store-san-francisco-10172194/)

 


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