Earlier today Hedgeye Macro hosted a Flash Call (45 minutes in duration) to discuss Greece’s ongoing ‘crisis’ with special contributor Daniel Lacalle, Hedgeye’s European analyst Matt Hedrick and CEO Keith McCullough.
We highly encourage you to listen to this very engaging discussion between Daniel, Keith, and Matt (the Q&A begins at 16:21).
Audio Replay: CLICK HERE
Supplemental Materials: CLICK HERE
ABOUT DANIEL LACALLE
Lacalle is a renowned European economist who previously worked at PIMCO and was a PM at Ecofin Global Oil & Gas Fund and Citadel. He is the author of Life In The Financial Markets and The Energy World Is Flat. He is a lecturer for the IE Business School and Master MEMFI at UNED University.
KEY CALL-OUTS
- The Greeks are highly likely (~70%) to vote ‘YES’ on this coming Sunday’s (JULY 5) referendum on the current creditor proposal. In reality this referendum is really a gimmick (this proposal is already off the table with the Eurogroup) – it’s just a front for the ruling Syriza party to wash its hands of any blame.
- While the specifics/details of the proposal may be far from understood by the general populous, the overwhelming majority of Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone, and Greece refuses to leave.
- Expect Draghi and the Eurocrats to continue to extend & pretend economic reality through QE (printing a Greece every 3 months!) and debt concessions/restructuring that resembles Draghi’s “we’ll do whatever it takes” rhetoric.
- Lacalle suggested the Grexit uncertainty is analogous to Hotel California. “You can check out anytime you want but you can never leave.” This is a political decision, not a financial one.
- ECB wants to limit contagion on the political level. While financially there is very little contagion to Spain, Italy, France, etc. there’s the risk that Syriza sets an example to other fringe parties across these states that the ECB and Eurocrats – this what they want to squash.
- All of the solutions presented by governments and approved by the Troika don’t tackle improving business and job creation. Rather, they simply increase taxes without addressing wasteful government spending.
- Yes the ECB will provide opportunities (through QE), but investors need to be aware that pricing of risk is too fixated on what the ECB can vs cannot do – it can print money, but it cannot print growth!
- Key Catalysts: Greek maturities in August; elections in Spain in November (whether Podemos party gets stronger or weaker?)
- This time is in fact different in the sense that there are ruling radical parties (like Syriza) that are a real threat to the political climate of the Eurozone.
- Don’t Expect Resolve to the Greek ‘Crisis’. Expect a Greek recession in the near term and the political/fiscal risk loop to continue for years…
- Devaluation of the EUR/USD is here to stay. But Lacalle reminds that the Eurozone countries largely export to one another, so by improving their current account positions, the euro will strengthen, so there a limit to the downside.
