Replay Greece Flash Call: Apocalypse Now (or Not) in Greece? With special guest Daniel Lacalle

Earlier today Hedgeye Macro hosted a Flash Call (45 minutes in duration) to discuss Greece’s ongoing ‘crisis’ with special contributor Daniel Lacalle, Hedgeye’s European analyst Matt Hedrick and CEO Keith McCullough.


We highly encourage you to listen to this very engaging discussion between Daniel, Keith, and Matt (the Q&A begins at 16:21).

Audio Replay:  CLICK HERE 

Supplemental Materials:  CLICK HERE




Lacalle is a renowned European economist who previously worked at PIMCO and was a PM at Ecofin Global Oil & Gas Fund and Citadel.  He is the author of Life In The Financial Markets and The Energy World Is Flat. He is a lecturer for the IE Business School and Master MEMFI at UNED University.




  • The Greeks are highly likely (~70%) to vote ‘YES’ on this coming Sunday’s (JULY 5) referendum on the current creditor proposal.  In reality this referendum is really a gimmick (this proposal is already off the table with the Eurogroup) – it’s just a front for the ruling Syriza party to wash its hands of any blame.
  • While the specifics/details of the proposal may be far from understood by the general populous, the overwhelming majority of Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone, and Greece refuses to leave.
  •  Expect Draghi and the Eurocrats to continue to extend & pretend economic reality through QE (printing a Greece every 3 months!) and debt concessions/restructuring that resembles Draghi’s “we’ll do whatever it takes” rhetoric.
  • Lacalle suggested the Grexit uncertainty is analogous to Hotel California. “You can check out anytime you want but you can never leave.” This is a political decision, not a financial one.
  • ECB wants to limit contagion on the political level. While financially there is very little contagion to  Spain, Italy, France, etc. there’s the risk that Syriza sets an example to other fringe parties across these states that the ECB and Eurocrats – this what they want to squash.
  • All of the solutions presented by governments and approved by the Troika don’t tackle improving business and job creation. Rather, they simply increase taxes without addressing wasteful government spending.
  • Yes the ECB will provide opportunities (through QE), but investors need to be aware that pricing of risk is too fixated on what the ECB can vs cannot do – it can print money, but it cannot print growth!
  • Key Catalysts:  Greek maturities in August; elections in Spain in November (whether Podemos party gets stronger or weaker?)
  • This time is in fact different in the sense that there are ruling radical parties (like Syriza) that are a real threat to the political climate of the Eurozone. 
  • Don’t Expect Resolve to the Greek ‘Crisis’.  Expect a Greek recession in the near term and the political/fiscal risk loop to continue for years…
  • Devaluation of the EUR/USD is here to stay.  But Lacalle reminds that the Eurozone countries largely export to one another, so by improving their current account positions, the euro will strengthen, so there a limit to the downside.  

Replay Greece Flash Call:  Apocalypse Now (or Not) in Greece? With special guest Daniel Lacalle - 1. SOS  

The "Game of Chicken" In Greece Is Over


In this brief excerpt from today's edition of The Macro Show, Hedgeye's European analyst Matt Hedrick says that while the Greeks may want to remain in the Eurozone, the powers-that-be (Angela Merkel et al) are running out of patience.


Subscribe to The Macro Show today for access to this and all other episodes. 


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This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.


We are adding MCD to the Hedgeye Best Ideas list as a LONG.  As I said last week, 2015 will be the last time MCD will trade below $100 on an average price basis!


We will be hosting a McDonald’s Blackbook call on Wednesday, July 8th at 11am ET.


After nearly four years of being bearish on MCD, it’s now time to reverse course.  We are confident that MCD is not a structurally broken company.  Importantly, there are a number of initiatives in place that will ultimately reverse the fortunes of the company. 


Yes, fixing McDonald’s operationally will take time, but the seeds have been planted.  From the work I have done, by 2016 it will be clear that MCD is well on its way to reasserting itself as the dominate company that it is. 


McDonald’s CEO, Steve Easterbrook, is reshaping the company from the inside out and the financial impact of these actions are about to be clear.  Returning MCD to sustainable growth is centered on structural changes to the operating model and a recommitment to regaining the trust and loyalty of customers.


These changes are taking place in Oak Brook and at the local level.  Within McDonald’s local management and franchisees working together to improve the McDonald’s experience.  The new experience is consistent with what made the company great in the first place.


While financial engineering is part of the new foundation, its limitations are obvious so understanding how an operationally led turnaround will unfold is critical to make a longer-term commitment to being LONG MCD.


The LONG MCD BLACKBOOK will focus on:

  • How the new operating structure of the company is breathing new ENERGY into the company including improved profitability
  • The primary cause for the market share losses in the USA over the past three years and how the company is fixing it
  • The timeline for the turn in sentiment and performance  
  • Updated financials


Call details and materials to be provided next week.



MACRO INSIGHT: Stay Out Of Europe's Way?

Editor’s Note: This is a special, complimentary excerpt from today’s morning strategy note written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. If you're interested in raising your Macro IQ and staying a step or two ahead of consensus, you may want to consider becoming a subscriber.

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MACRO INSIGHT: Stay Out Of Europe's Way? - z italy

Are European Equities undergoing what we call a Bullish-to-Bearish TREND Phase Transition?




A) We have slower-for-longer estimates for real European GDP growth than consensus for 2H of 2015




B) My risk management signal says this recent 3-month breakdown (TREND duration signals) is real – for now my answer is yes.


To review some key European Equity market TREND levels that have broken:


1. German DAX = 11,375

2. French CAC = 4,780

3. Spanish IBEX = 11,199


MACRO INSIGHT: Stay Out Of Europe's Way? - zz 06.29.15 chart 


Implied by those signals (since I have price, volume, and volatility calculated within each) is RISING VOLUME (on down days) and RISING VOLATILITY in terms of how I measure it within my immediate-term risk range #process.


The other obvious thing the manic-financial-media tends to miss when its pundits navel gaze at equity indices being “off the lows” is cross-asset-class risk management correlations and signals.


Look at this morning’s move in Global Bond Yields, for example…


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ITB: Removing Housing from Investing Ideas

Takeaway: We are removing Housing from Investing Ideas.

Please be advised that we are removing Housing (ITB) from Investing Ideas today.


According to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough:


After a run of very strong housing data, I want to start selling on the news until we get through both the summer and this European macro mess.


ITB: Removing Housing from Investing Ideas - z itb

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.52%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.68%