China, Germany and Industrials

Client Talking Points

CHINA

The Chinese made some comments about rate cut expectations and the Chinese stock market closed pretty close to its lows down -3.5% (in the last month Chinese stocks are now down -5.9%). Quantitatively, China has broken its immediate term trade line of support which was right around 4,750 but is still well above its intermediate trend line of support which is closer to 4,200. China is probably a more tradable two-way market now then it is when it was going straight up. 

DAX

Beware: Germany is not out of the rough waters yet. The German DAX is broken from a trend perspective; it would have to get back above 11,741 to reverse this. Currently the DAX has immediate downside risk to

10,770. Whether or not you believe the Greeks are going to get something done, it's important to remember that the entire free world of market participants are long the concept of the next central plan having upside as oppose to downside – but what happens if they don’t get it done?! From here the asymmetry is to the downside, you can buy Germany but you don’t have a lot of upside vs downside.

INDUSTRIALS

Industrials – just terrible! Oh and by the way, the entire global growth complex is slowing. Yesterday, Industrials were down almost a full percent and are now down 2.1% year-to-date. Industrials are a leading indicator to the downside that we are indeed late cycle and being long late cycle is not a good thing to do.

 

**The Macro Show - CLICK HERE to watch today's replay, with Macro Analyst Darius Dale, Gaming Lodging & Leisure Sector Todd Jordan and CEO Keith McCullough.

Asset Allocation

CASH 37% US EQUITIES 8%
INTL EQUITIES 11% COMMODITIES 14%
FIXED INCOME 28% INTL CURRENCIES 2%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
PENN

Shares of Penn National Gaming are up approximately 9% since it was added to Investing Ideas on May 26. Our Gaming, Lodging & Leisure team reiterates their high conviction on the stock and notes that Ohio and Kansas have both been super-strong revenue generators in the month of May. This positive development has has led our analysts to raise their estimates even higher (and we're already the highest on the street...).

ITB

It was a busy week across the housing space with a host of fundamental releases, builder earnings and notable regulatory updates.   Net-net-net....the past week offered another positive update on the state of the residential real estate market with housing turned in a second week of strong, positive absolute and relative performance. The NAHB HMI (Builder Confidence Index) for June surged across all categories and in all regions, posting its best reading in almost 10 years. Total Starts declined -11% MoM to +1.036 MM units with SF and MF starts declining -5.4% and -20.2% month-over-month, respectively.  Permits, meanwhile, rose to an 8-year high advancing +11.8% sequentially and +25% year-over-year.   The strength in permits augurs forward strength in Starts and suggest residential construction spending will be (increasingly) supportive of GDP growth over the next couple quarters.

TLT

Bottom line right now remains that Lower-For-Longer is firmly intact as long as US #GrowthSlowing is. As Keith pointed out on Friday, Consensus Macro is still stubbornly sticking to the tired idea that rates have to go higher - they just have to... because, they haven't? All told, it was a great week sticking with the process on the long side of bonds. Here we feature an in-depth discussion from Senior Macro Analyst Darius Dale which does a thorough job outlining where our macro team currently stands with respect to the Fed, interest rates, markets and economy. The prescient discussion occured just hours before release of the FOMC statement.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

FX: Euro holding yesterday's gains vs USD at $1.12 - TRADE risk range there remains $1.11-1.14

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

To raise new questions, new possibilities, to regard old problems from a new angle, requires creative imagination and marks real advance in science.

Albert Einstein

STAT OF THE DAY

An Australian warship patrolling the Indian Ocean seized nearly 600kg (1,300lb) of heroin with an estimated street value of more $500m. The Australian navy said it was the 2nd largest such haul by the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), a naval partnership of 30 countries to tackle piracy in the Middle East and Indian Ocean.