Takeaway: CCL today confirmed the European challenges we have been highlighting. It is responsible for revenue yield guidance not being raised.
Q & A
In this brief excerpt from today’s edition of The Macro Show, U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake explains what role housing plays in the broader economic cycle.
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Takeaway: Head Scratching Offer for MSO. Retail Sales Decelerate as Summer Compares Get Tougher.
SQBG, MSO - Head Scratching Offer for Martha Stewart Living by Sequential Brands
Takeaway: At these multiples, 3.3x 2015E EV/Sales and 24x 2015E EV/EBITDA, we're scratching our heads trying to figure out what Sequential Brands thinks its buying. What we see is a company almost 100% dependent on the legacy of a soon to be 74 year old founder and media personality that has been permanently damaged, at least in the eyes of potential licensing partners after the whole M/JCP debacle. The thinking at SQBG has to be that it can layer MSO on to its existing platform, use the brand name to generate royalty revenue, and generate enough cash flow to justify the deal price. But there is serious key employee risk associated with this deal not to mention the fact that the Martha brand name is less relevant than it was five years ago, but far more relevant than it is likely to be in 2020.
Retail Sales Decelerate in Week 1 of Difficult 15-Week Summer Comps Stretch
Takeaway: On a 2yr, basis sales accelerated sequentially against a 4.1% reading last year. But, on a 1yr sequential basis there was a meaningful 40bps deceleration equating to the lowest growth rate we've seen in 2015 YTD. And we'd expect more of the same as weekly sales growth rates come under added pressure through September as we comp against a solid Summer of 2014.
M - Macy’s, Inc. to Redeem 8.125% Senior Notes Due 2035
FL - FootLocker launches video promotion with Under Armour, NBA
W - Wayfair plays a different marketing tune
NKE - Nike Ad Salutes Cleveland Fans Despite NBA Championship Loss
Alibaba Sells 11 Main
MERS Outbreak Hits South Korean Retail
It's a good thing Durable Goods New Orders growth is plunging and the "recovery" in Capital Goods New Orders petered out.
We reiterate our call for the underlying pace of U.S. real GDP growth to slow throughout the balance of the year.
Don't be a lazy macro tourist and get sucked into volatile, increasingly useless QoQ SAAR noise. Real GDP growth will be 2% or less in 2015.
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