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BOJA | Getting Deep Fried

BOJA | Getting Deep Fried - Chart 1 replace

 

Back on 6/4/15 we added Bojangles’ (BOJA) to our Hedgeye Restaurants Short Bench. Since then we have begun to refine our thinking and wanted to share our updates as we work out the final details.  As a result we are upgrading it to the Restaurant Best Short Ideas.

 

Currently BOJA shares are trading at approximately 16.5x 2016E EBITDA, or an approximately 15% premium to the mean of the three other regional chicken companies (LOCO, FRGI, and PLKI).  That being said, it’s also not hard to make the case that LOCO and FRGI are overvalued too, making BOJA even more ridiculously overvalued.     

 

KEY POINTS WE PLAN TO MAKE:

 

Bull Case is Unlikely – The bull case for BOJA is grounded on BOJA’s strong fundamental momentum continuing for years. My read on the fundamentals suggest that there is little leverage in the business model or upside to the current estimates.

 

New Unit Economics Don’t Add up – Each new BOJA restaurant costs slightly more than $2.1 million. The average unit volume is between $1.7 million and $1.5 million for new units in non-core markets. This puts the concept sales to investment ratio at .68, one of the lowest in the industry and suggests you should be allocating your capital elsewhere.

 

Same-Store Sales – In the recent past BOJA has used price as a primary driver of same-store sales growth. Going forward, guidance is for low-single digit same-store sales primarily driven by 2%-3% pricing and flattish traffic. All this pricing is due to rising commodity costs specifically on chicken, which leads into our next point.

 

Commodity Costs – Chicken represents 38% of COGS, and will likely drive a majority of the mid-single digit commodity basket inflation expected in 2015.

 

Low and Declining Margins – Due to the higher cost of sales, restaurant level margins will contract in 2015, as price increases will not fully offset rising costs.

 

Valuation – The market is putting insanely high multiples on average restaurant businesses.

 

Downside – Our bear case has 30% downside in the name.

 

We will be making our point more clear later this week with more robust details.

 

BOJA | Getting Deep Fried - CHaRT 2 


ZOES: Adding Zoe's Kitchen to Investing Ideas

Takeaway: We are adding Zoe's Kitchen (ZOES) to Investing Ideas.

Please note that we are adding Zoe's Kitchen to Investing Ideas today. We will provide an additional update in this weekend's edition of Investing Ideas.

 

ZOES: Adding Zoe's Kitchen to Investing Ideas - z5

 

According to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough:

 

If you have patience in this profession, it's almost uncanny how the things you think you "missed not owning enough of" have a way of mean reverting (correcting). 

 

Last week ZOES announced that CFO Jason Morgan has resigned to pursue other business opportunities.  Mr. Morgan has been at ZOES for eight years, this decision reflects his personal career choice and in the coming days and week it will be clear where he is going.  Importantly, transition to a new CFO will likely not have a material lasting impact on the company's prospects.

 

On the contrary, Mr. Morgan is a very talented restaurant executive and is leaving the company in a very strong position with a deep bench of seasoned financial executives.  Over the coming months James Besch, current Controller will lead ZOES’ financial team as the company begins a formal search for a new CFO.

 

OUR LONG TERM VIEW IS UNCHANGED - We view ZOES as one of the best small cap growth names.  The company is set-up for long-term success for the following reasons:

 

  1. Superior brand positioning
  2. Management philosophy and execution
  3. Unit opening geographic profile
  4. Early-stage average unit volumes and returns

Howard Penney remains The long-term Bull. Buy red,

KM



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Behind The Scenes: Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough On Managing Your Book

 

During this brief excerpt from a recent edition of RTA Live, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains some of his thinking and process as it relates to managing positions.

 

Subscribe to Real-Time Alerts today for access to this and all episodes of RTA Live.

 

Subscribe to Hedgeye on YouTube for all of our free video content.

 


GIS | Fundamentally Turning the Ship Around

Takeaway: GIS is staying on our Hedgeye Consumer Staples Best Idea list as a Long, as we look at the great possibilities FY16 will bring.

General Mills has just announced the removal of artificial colors and flavors from its cereal.

 

“We’re simply listening to consumers and these ingredients are not what people are looking for in their cereal today,” Said Jim Murphy, president of the Cereal division. The change will affect roughly 40% of GIS cereals over the next two to three years. Currently, about 60% of GIS cereals are already free of artificial sources and have been that way for years.

 

This move comes as consumers are asking for simpler ingredient decks, with less added chemicals such as Yellow 5. In most cereals you will barely be able to see a difference, but others such as Trix and Lucky Charms may have slightly different colors. 

 

We continue to love the cereal category, and think that GIS is going lead it to greener pastures. This latest innovation by GIS is a big step and they are putting a lot of effort in across the organization to make sure it is done right.  R&D is obviously leading the pack ensuring that quality and taste are not sacrificed in the process of taking out these unwanted ingredients. While marketing will be tasked with delivering the message, educating consumers about the changes and that General Mills has them at top of mind.

 

GIS | Fundamentally Turning the Ship Around - GIS Artificial color chart 1

 

GIS | Fundamentally Turning the Ship Around - GIS artificial color chart 2

 

General Mills is fundamentally turning this ship around as they continue to listen to the consumer. Management continues to impress us with their desire to adapt to the changing taste preferences of consumers. Heading into a very important FY15 Q4 announcement next Wednesday, we are confident in their ability to match consensus or possibly top it by a penny. GIS is staying on our Hedgeye Consumer Staples Best Idea list as a Long, as we look at the great possibilities FY16 will bring.


Under Armour Keeps on Winning (And Winning...) | $UA

Takeaway: Under Armour is not on a winning 'streak.' It's just flat out #winning. Again and again. Now it needs to translate that into dollars.

Just when you thought Under Armour's 2015 couldn’t get any better… 

 

Under Armour Keeps on Winning (And Winning...)  | $UA - z ua spi

 

In the same week that Stephen Curry wins an NBA title, Jordan Spieth wins the U.S. Open.  Spieth's victory marks the first time a player has won the first two majors of the year since Tiger in 2002 and the youngest to win the U.S. Open since Bobby Jones 1923. 

 

Under Armour (presciently) signed Spieth to a 10-year contract back in January, and so far the return -- at least as measured by share of voice -- has been immense. Spieth plastered the UA logo on primetime TV throughout the weekend and even managed to mention Under Armour in an interview immediately following his victory when asked if he had a 5th outfit for a playoff.

 

Shares of UA are up 1.3% today following Spieth's victory.

 

The challenge for UnderArmour at this point is whether the company can monetize these moments when its athletes are in the limelight. Historically, that's where every single brand has fallen down when playing the athlete endorsement game. It's not enough for the athlete to play, win, and advertise the logo all along the way. The company needs to use events like this to establish emotional connections between the Brand and the Consumer.

 

With Nike, we'd argue that its competitive edge in endorsements is not just a function of its huge wallet, but rather its ability to drive this emotional connection -- which clearly drives loyalty and increased sales. In fact, Nike has been known to do this even when it's athletes don't win -- or flat-out lose. This is the one area where we're waiting to see UA shine. If it succeeds in this regard, then 2H and 2016 expectations will prove far too conservative for UA.  


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