Dale on the Fed: 'This Won't End Well'

Takeaway: Short the FOMC's "dot plot."

The Fed has cut its growth forecast by ~40% in the past six months, yet officials still expect two rate hikes in 2015.

This won't end well.

The FOMC's growth forecasts have been consistently too optimistic by 90 basis points on average over the past 5 years. 2015 looks like more of the same.

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Dale on the Fed: 'This Won't End Well' - z dale gdp

It is unlikely that the trend in domestic economic data will support hiking interest rates at any point in the next 6-9 months.

Dale on the Fed: 'This Won't End Well' - z dale forecasting

My best long-term investment idea? Short the FOMC's "dot plot." Is there a futures market for that?

As an investor, you shouldn't let the Fed set your monetary policy expectations. Do your own work on the economy and beat them to the punch.