LEISURE LETTER (06/11/2015)



Neptune - denied that it is laying off 300 layoffs of workers by the end of this month.  They added: “Because of the large number of employees and the high turnover rate of employees, [we have had] 100 [or] 200 employees who resign or are let go each year for different reasons in the past few years. This year so far the number of employees who resign or are laid-off is similar to the level of the past few years, contradictory to the online rumors that 300 employees will be sacked by end of this month. The relevant media reports are unfounded.”


Takeaway: Attrition - the only way politically to reduce headcount


HOT - announced plans to debut in South Australia with the signing of Aloft Adelaide in the state capital. Owned by local developer, Sturt Land Pty Ltd, a joint venture between local construction group Tagara and Melbourne-based developer Colvid, the signing of Aloft Adelaide marks the Aloft brand’s third property to enter the Australian market.



MGM – CEO of MGM China operations, Grant Bowie commented on possible merger speculation with WYNN. “This report was mere speculation and frankly we don’t comment on speculation. I don’t think it does us any good to continue these discussions.”

Takeaway:  The idea of a merger sounded far fetched but Bowie didn't deny the possibility either. 


Bloomberry – CEO Razon, said he would be willing to invest in a new international airport in Manila to boost tourism in the country.




New Zealand – saw 10% cruise passenger growth in 2014. Considered the third fastest growing cruise passenger market next to Australia (20.4%), and France (13.6%).



China Industrial Output (May) - actual +6.1%; consensus +6.0%

China Retail Sales (May) – actual +10.1%; consensus +10.2%  


Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative on Europe, their bottom-up, qualitative analysis (Growth/Inflation/Policy framework) indicates that the Eurozone is setting up to enter the ugly Quad4 in Q4 (equating to growth decelerates and inflation decelerates) = Europe Slowing.

Takeaway:  European pricing has been a tailwind for CCL and RCL but a negative pivot here looks increasingly likely in 2015.

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