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BULL VS BEAR: What’s Changed in Crude Oil? (And Commodities For That Matter) + 7 Excellent Charts

After declining nearly -60% in a 9-month period, WTI crude oil has moved 41% off the March lows. The logical question to ask is: what’s changed?

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BULL VS BEAR: What’s Changed in Crude Oil? (And Commodities For That Matter) + 7 Excellent Charts - Z O9

 

Aside from the obvious inflection in expectations for the direction of the U.S. dollar, a good argument can be made that not much has changed from a fundamental perspective. Below we outline the Bull/Bear debate:

 

BULLISH VIEW


Domestic production growth is decelerating and expected to go delta negative within the next couple of months (production has been much more resilient than originally expected—See below)

 

BULL VS BEAR: What’s Changed in Crude Oil? (And Commodities For That Matter) + 7 Excellent Charts - CHART 2

 

Rigs continue to come offline (although decelerating) while production per rig is still increasing sequentially       --> How long can production per rig continue to increase? It could be petering out..

 

BULL VS BEAR: What’s Changed in Crude Oil? (And Commodities For That Matter) + 7 Excellent Charts - CHART 3

 

After increasing for 16 consecutive weeks and sparking fear that the U.S. may be running out of storage space, crude oil inventories at commercial refiners have declined for 6 consecutive weeks coming out of the seasonal refinery maintenance season

 

BULL VS BEAR: What’s Changed in Crude Oil? (And Commodities For That Matter) + 7 Excellent Charts - CHART4

 

BEARISH VIEW


What we viewed as a big consensus short bias to crude (and all commodities for that matter), has been washed out.

 

Consensus Positioning usually chases price. We saw this at the lows in commodity prices in March (the market moved shorter of commodities the more they went down!)

 

As you can see in the chart below, the market is longest (most bullish expectations) when prices are highest.

 

BULL VS BEAR: What’s Changed in Crude Oil? (And Commodities For That Matter) + 7 Excellent Charts - CHART 5

 

BULL VS BEAR: What’s Changed in Crude Oil? (And Commodities For That Matter) + 7 Excellent Charts - CHART 6

 

While showing signs of deceleration, domestic crude oil production is still touching new highs not seen in 43 years. The EIA reported a 43-Year high of 9.6MM B/D of production in May (NOTE: The EIA has upwardly revised preliminary estimates for February, March, and April production numbers which originally showed a noticeable deceleration in production starting in March. The blue series in the chart below estimates their reported figures in March. They have since been upwardly revised.

 

BULL VS BEAR: What’s Changed in Crude Oil? (And Commodities For That Matter) + 7 Excellent Charts - CHART 7

 

On a global scale, oil markets are as competitive as they’ve been in a long time. Global crude production in 3 of the top 4 producing countries is up double digits YY and positive in 17 of the top 20 producing countries, also on a YY basis.

 

BULL VS BEAR: What’s Changed in Crude Oil? (And Commodities For That Matter) + 7 Excellent Charts - CHART 8

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Cartoon of the Day: Geriatric U.S. Growth

Cartoon of the Day: Geriatric U.S. Growth - Growth cartoon 06.10.2015

"There’s definitely a narrative out there (perpetuated by Mario Draghi which I think was a huge mistake) that both the European and US economies are accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote earlier this week. "We hear it in investor meetings every day ... Unfortunately for the bullish growth narrative, both the economic data and market moves discounting future growth expectations are reminding you that #accelerating is exactly what it isn’t."

 


Why Bigger Is Better In Alternative Asset Management

On today's edition of The Macro Show, Capital Markets analyst Jonathan Casteleyn spoke with CEO Keith McCullough about changes occurring in the hedge fund industry, which companies stand to benefit and why.


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This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

WWAV: VEGA IS A NATURAL FIT

Takeaway: Today, WWAV announced that it has agreed to acquire Vega for $550 million.

VEGA deal summary and WWAV Black Book date announcement

 

On Thursday June 18, 2015 at 3:00PM we will be releasing a Black Book video presentation on WWAV.  The VEGA acquisition is a great fit for the company and is an example of why WWAV is a long-term winner in the organic category!

 

Today, WWAV announced that it has agreed to acquire Vega for $550 million. Strategically, this is a natural fit for WWAV’s portfolio that strengthens their plant-based foods & beverages portfolio. Vega is the leader in plant-based nutrition products, further bolstering WWAV’s stable of #1 brands.

 

This marks WWAV’s third acquisition since spinning off from Dean Foods, starting with Earthbound in 2013, So Delicious in 2014 and now Vega. There is an obvious acquisition trend of diary-free and plant-based, better-for-you companies. These are very on-trend categories that are rapidly growing, making them very attractive pockets of growth for large CPG companies.

 

From looking at the sales multiple of 5.5x, it appears that WWAV may have had to beat out some competition for this asset. We believe that this is money well spent, Vega has been growing at a 30% clip and we believe this can accelerate further as they leverage WWAV’s supply chain in the U.S. and U.K. This is the right home for Vega, the partnership between the Vega and WWAV teams will allow for learning and best practices between both sides.

 

Below is a one page summary of the deal:

 

WWAV: VEGA IS A NATURAL FIT - WWAV to acquire Vega 

 

 

Longer term there are many way you can win with WWAV:

  1. Growth of the base business ― distribution growth & category expansions
  2. Growth through acquisitions ― string of pearls approach
  3. Sell the company ― many large CPG companies are looking for growth

We Still Believe This Disruptive Stock Is a Two-Bagger, If Not a Three-Bagger

Takeaway: When a Consumer story is this explosive and disruptive, every quarter is an event. Fortunately, this story is very much on track.

We remain convinced that Restoration Hardware (RH) is one of the unique TAIL* opportunities in Consumer/Retail as the company disrupts a large fragmented space of localized high-cost competitors, and changes the paradigm for how people shop for Home Furnishings.

 

This story is, at most, in the second inning and the types of changes we’ll see to product classification, consumer type, purchasing experience and ensuing financial characteristics are neither in Consumers’ sights, or Wall Street’s models.

We Still Believe This Disruptive Stock Is a Two-Bagger, If Not a Three-Bagger - rh 44

When all is said and done, we still think that this company has $11 in earnings power 4-years out, which is nearly double the consensus. We remain convinced that the debate should not be ‘if or when’ the stock hits $115 (22% upside -- the highest sell-side price target out there), but rather when we all have to adjust estimates for last year’s convert, which becomes mildly dilutive at $172 (83% upside).

 

At that point, we’ll be looking at an earnings CAGR of 40-50% over five years. What kind of multiple does that deserve? 20x? 25x? 30x? We’d argue the higher end, but regardless, we’re talking a stock between $225 and $325. We won’t bicker which one it is with the stock at $94 today. So there’s our TAIL call.

 

And despite our confidence in where it’s headed long-term, we have to respect the near-term volatility in the market, and in particular, such dynamic transformational stories like RH.

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*Note: There are three durations over which we analyze investment ideas and themes here at Hedgeye. We created a process as a way of characterizing our investment ideas and their risk profiles, to fit the investing strategies and preferences of our subscribers.

 

"Trade" is a duration of 3 weeks or less

"Trend" is a duration of 3 months or more

"Tail" is a duration of 3 years or less

 

Interested in accessing our Retail research? Ping sales@hedgeye.com.


Fund Flows | 13 Consecutive Weeks of Withdrawals (And Counting)

Takeaway: The negative trend in domestic equity flows continued and a new trend of negative muni fund flows has appeared.

This note was originally published June 04, 2015. Click here for more info on how you can subscribe to our investing products.

Investment Company Institute Mutual Fund Data and ETF Money Flow:

Investors continue to pull funds from active domestic equity mutual fund mandates, withdrawing -$2.9 billion in the 5-day period ending May 27th according to the latest ICI survey. This marks the 13th consecutive week of withdrawals from the category. Another trend that has appeared recently is withdrawals from tax-free or municipal bond funds. Last week, investors withdrew -$170 million from munis, marking the 4th consecutive week of withdrawals. Fund flows for the entire bond category in general were weak last week with investors only contributing +$98 million to total bond mutual funds and ETFs. Conversely, equities via international mutual funds and passive ETFs won support with a +$2.1 billion contribution.


Fund Flows | 13 Consecutive Weeks of Withdrawals (And Counting) - Z CAST 1

 

In the most recent 5-day period ending May 27th, total equity mutual funds put up net outflows of -$223 million, trailing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$670 million and the 2014 average inflow of +$620 million. The outflow was composed of international stock fund contributions of +$2.6 billion and domestic stock fund withdrawals of -$2.9 billion. International equity funds have had positive flows in 48 of the last 52 weeks while domestic equity funds have had only 10 weeks of positive flows over the same time period.

 

Fixed income mutual funds put up net inflows of +$627 million, trailing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$2.2 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$929 million. The inflow was composed of tax-free or municipal bond funds withdrawals of -$170 million and taxable bond funds contributions of +$797 million.

 

Equity ETFs had net subscriptions of +$2.3 billion, outpacing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$1.6 billion but trailing the 2014 average inflow of +$3.2 billion. Fixed income ETFs had net outflows of -$529 million, trailing the year-to-date weekly average inflow of +$1.1 billion and the 2014 average inflow of +$1.0 billion.

 

Mutual fund flow data is collected weekly from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) and represents a survey of 95% of the investment management industry's mutual fund assets. Mutual fund data largely reflects the actions of retail investors. Exchange traded fund (ETF) information is extracted from Bloomberg and is matched to the same weekly reporting schedule as the ICI mutual fund data. According to industry leader Blackrock (BLK), U.S. ETF participation is 60% institutional investors and 40% retail investors.   

 

Most Recent 12 Week Flow in Millions by Mutual Fund Product: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from the ICI mutual fund survey and includes the weekly average for 2014 and the weekly year-to-date average for 2015:

 

Fund Flows | 13 Consecutive Weeks of Withdrawals (And Counting) - ICI 2

 

Fund Flows | 13 Consecutive Weeks of Withdrawals (And Counting) - ICI 3

 

Fund Flows | 13 Consecutive Weeks of Withdrawals (And Counting) - ICI 4

 

Fund Flows | 13 Consecutive Weeks of Withdrawals (And Counting) - ICI 5

 

Fund Flows | 13 Consecutive Weeks of Withdrawals (And Counting) - ICI 6

 

 

Most Recent 12 Week Flow Within Equity and Fixed Income Exchange Traded Funds: Chart data is the most recent 12 weeks from Bloomberg's ETF database (matched to the Wednesday to Wednesday reporting format of the ICI), the weekly average for 2014, and the weekly year-to-date average for 2015. In the third table are the results of the weekly flows into and out of the major market and sector SPDRs:

 

Fund Flows | 13 Consecutive Weeks of Withdrawals (And Counting) - ICI 7

 

Fund Flows | 13 Consecutive Weeks of Withdrawals (And Counting) - ICI 8

 

Sector and Asset Class Weekly ETF and Year-to-Date Results: In sector SPDR callouts, investors resumed withdrawals from the long treasury TLT ETF, redeeming -$328 million or -7% last week.

 

Fund Flows | 13 Consecutive Weeks of Withdrawals (And Counting) - ICI 9

 

 

Net Results:

The net of total equity mutual fund and ETF flows against total bond mutual fund and ETF flows totaled a positive +$2.0 billion spread for the week (+$2.1 billion of total equity inflow net of the +$98 million inflow to fixed income; positive numbers imply greater money flow to stocks; negative numbers imply greater money flow to bonds). The 52-week moving average is +$1.5 billion (more positive money flow to equities) with a 52-week high of +$27.9 billion (more positive money flow to equities) and a 52-week low of -$13.1 billion (negative numbers imply more positive money flow to bonds for the week.)

  

Fund Flows | 13 Consecutive Weeks of Withdrawals (And Counting) - ICI 10

 

Exposures: The weekly data herein is important for the public asset managers with trends in mutual funds and ETFs impacting the companies with the following estimated revenue impact:

 

Fund Flows | 13 Consecutive Weeks of Withdrawals (And Counting) - ICI 11 

 

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT 

203-562-6500 

jcasteleyn@hedgeye.com 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

203-562-6500

jsteiner@hedgeye.com

 

 

 

 

 


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