We guess this time is “different” with Dow Transports (IYT) not being a leading indicator for the cycle?
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Leading losers from a Sector Style perspective yesterday, IYT was down -2.1% on the day versus a -0.65% decline for the S&P 500. Transports are down -4.9% month-over-month and have fallen almost -9% year-to-date.
The reality is that in macro strategy, there are some leading indicators that even the most creative storytellers can’t convince you that “it’s different this time.”
When we went bullish on US #GrowthAccelerating in 2013, the Transports index was breaking out to the upside. Now, after 73 months of this U.S. economic expansion, it’s breaking down.
No, that’s not a good sign.
Meanwhile, Global Equities look worse than the Transports! And we know one of our competitors is saying “growth is back”, but seriously – month-over-month Global Equity moves = Russia -12%, Portugal -9%, Greece -8%, Germany -7%, Brazil -7%, Turkey -7%... we’ll stop there.
*This is an excerpt from Hedgeye morning research. Click here for more information on our products and how you can subscribe.