Editor's Note: The excerpt and chart below are from today's Morning Newsletter by CEO Keith McCullough. Click here for more information on how to subscribe.
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...As you can see in today’s Chart of The Day (it’s actually a rock solid table of historical labor cycle data), these are the facts about US labor metrics. I’d like you to zero in on the number of NFP months (+/-) vs. economic cycle peaks:
- DEC 1969 (economic cycle peak) = +4.9 months (# of months after DEC 69’ when NFP peaked)
- NOV 1973 = +5.9 months
- JAN 1980 = +3.9 months
- JUL 1981 = +2.0 months
- JUL 1990 = +1.0 months
- MAR 2001 = +1.0 months
- DEC 2007 = +3.0 months
...unless it’s “different this time”, US non-farm payrolls are in the #process of peaking. And I’m not a big fan of capitulating at peaks.