prev

CHART OF THE DAY: S-L-O-W-E-R For L-O-N-G-E-R

Editor's Note: The excerpt and chart below are from today's Morning Newsletter written by CEO Keith McCullough. If you're not a subscriber yet, you're missing out. Click here to learn more and subscribe.

 

...The two core components of our Global Macro slide deck remain A) the cyclical call (USA in a #LateCycleslowdown) and B) the secular call (#Demographic slowing of core baby boomer consumption cohorts, in the US, Europe, Japan, and China).

 

Click to enlarge 

CHART OF THE DAY: S-L-O-W-E-R  For L-O-N-G-E-R - z 06.03.15 chart


Dollar Down, Rates Up?

“We live in time, and through it.”

-Wallace Stegner

 

That’s another great quote about life from a book I’m quite liking right now, Angle of Repose. For the record, there is no repose for me this morning. And I like it. There will be plenty of time to sleep, when I retire.

 

In the meantime, I’m getting on a plane to the heartland of America for a day of investor meetings. I’ll be outlining what I think is becoming more likely by both the day and economic data point – Slower-For-Longer, on both US and Global growth, that is…

 

The two core components of our Global Macro slide deck remain A) the cyclical call (USA in a #LateCycle slowdown) and B) the secular call (#Demographic slowing of core baby boomer consumption cohorts, in the US, Europe, Japan, and China).

Dollar Down, Rates Up? - Growth cartoon 05.19.2015

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Dollar Up, Rates Down? Yep. We lived through that yesterday. In terms of our positioning, some of that was good – some of it bad. It was a very immediate-term move, but here’s what it looked like:

 

  1. Dollar Down -1.5% on the day (biggest down day in a month)
  2. Euro (vs. USD) +2.1% to the top-end of my current $1.08-1.12 risk range
  3. Commodities (CRB) Index +1.1% on the “reflation” trade to 226
  4. Oil (and Oil & Gas stocks) up with XOP leading US equity sub-sector performers +1.8%
  5. German 10yr Yield ramped from 0.49% to 0.71%, in a day
  6. US 10yr Yield chased that and went from 2.12% to 2.28%, in a day

 

This, mostly on consensus headline chasing of “inflation is back”, after the Eurozone posted a mind-altering 0.3% year-over-year “inflation” report for the month of May.

 

In other news, European producer prices (PPI) deflated -2.2% year-over-year. But don’t tell Bond Bears that.

 

What did my day look like?

 

  1. FX: I came into the day short the USD in Real-time Alerts and signaled buy/cover #Oversold
  2. Commodities: with our asset allocation at a 1yr high, I was satisfied and stayed put
  3. Bonds: didn’t do much of anything as we already trimmed our allocation to FI on last week’s rally
  4. *Stocks: opted to buy US stocks that look most like bonds in Utilities (XLU) and short more Retail (XRT)
  5. Hockey: coached practice until 7PM and felt normal for about an hour
  6. Family: kissed my kids on the forehead before bed

 

We either let these macro moves raise our anxieties to un-healthy levels or we live through them with a work/family life balance. I’m much more prepared on that front today than I was for the last US #LateCycle slow-down. That’s a #process too.

 

Back to the positioning (I think of asset allocation on a NET exposure basis, just because I love shorting/selling things when they are at the top-end of my risk range, so that I can hopefully cover/buy things back at the low-end of the range):

 

  1. US Equity Allocation = UP from 2% at the all-time SPX high of 2130 to 6% as of yesterday’s close
  2. International Equity Allocation = FLAT at 10% with most of that leaning long Japanese Equities
  3. Commodity Allocation = DOWN 1% from 13% to 12%
  4. Fixed Income Allocation = UP from 23% to 24%
  5. FX = DOWN from 3% to 2%

 

I realize how I communicate allocating capital to assets on down moves and taking some off on up moves isn’t for everyone. But it’s dynamic and daily. I do it every day in this transparent format so you can hold me to account.

 

On the Fixed Income vs. Equities debate I don’t really think that’s what matters most right now. I think the Sector Style and asset allocations you make to either the growth #accelerating or #decelerating exposures does.

 

In other words, if you think that:

 

A)     US growth is going to accelerate in 2H 2015, you buy inflation/growth stocks and short Treasury Bonds

B)      US growth is going to continue to decelerate in 2H 2015, you buy #YieldChasing stocks and bonds

 

Sure, you’ll have to live through volatility along the way. But, if the best longer-term risk management call you could have made 1-year ago was preparing for Global #Deflation, from here until 2016 it’s setting up for Global #GrowthSlowing (again).

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.01-2.29%

SPX 2098-2118
Nikkei 20103-20709
VIX 13.03-14.94
USD 94.83-98.33
EUR/USD 1.08-1.12
Oil (WTI) 58.68-61.90

Gold 1178-1203

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Dollar Down, Rates Up? - z 06.03.15 chart


The Macro Show Replay | June 3, 2015

 


get free cartoon of the day!

Start receiving Hedgeye's Cartoon of the Day, an exclusive and humourous take on the market and the economy, delivered every morning to your inbox

By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails.

Live: The Macro Show Featuring Brian McGough at 8:30AM ET

Retail Sector Head Brian McGough will be featured on The Macro Show, Hedgeye's morning Macro call, today at 8:30AM ET. Brian will be running through a big picture overview of the retail space, touching on wage inflation and the Hedgeye Retail Idea List.

 

Ask your questions live in the chat box below. 

 


June 3, 2015

June 3, 2015 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

June 3, 2015 - Slide2

June 3, 2015 - Slide3

June 3, 2015 - Slide4

June 3, 2015 - Slide5

June 3, 2015 - Slide6

June 3, 2015 - Slide7

 

 

BEARISH TRENDS

 

June 3, 2015 - Slide8 

June 3, 2015 - Slide9

June 3, 2015 - Slide10

June 3, 2015 - Slide11
June 3, 2015 - Slide12

June 3, 2015 - Slide13


GENERAL MILLS CLOSING OUT THE YEAR STRONG

Takeaway: All-in-all fiscal year 2015 was a year of change and self-reflection for GIS and I believe they are better off for it.

General Mills capped off its 2015 fiscal year this past weekend, and will be set to report 4Q FY15 EPS on July 1, 2015. GIS in on the HEDGEYE Best Ideas list as a LONG.  In this note we will summarize the year and tell you why we are still very confident in the name.

 

We see multiple ways you can win being LONG GIS:

1.            The current management transforms into an Activist management team - 15% chance

2.            Fundamentally – Gluten Free Cheerios is a home run – 40% chance

3.            Management sells the company – 10% chance

4.            An Activist shareholder takes a position – 35% chance

 

Please note above our increased faith in management to be able to fundamentally improve the business.

 

Management needs to start focusing on their non-core assets that represent roughly 28% of the portfolio such as, Pillsbury, Gold Medal, Green Giant and Progresso.  Divesting these brands would free up resources and provide greater capital to acquire a strong high growth business.

 

GIS is a company known for great brands, and consumers are proving that once again. GIS is growing share in key categories this year with grain snacks dollar share up 187 basis points (bps) vs last year, yogurt up 75 bps and ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal up 31 bps. GIS is often a leader in the categories in which they compete and they are showing their strength.

 

Selling the company is an option, albeit an unlikely one given the current valuation. If the price were to slip a little, some big players in the market would take a harder look at it. This is also the case for an activist coming on board, for someone willing to put in the work there is still plenty of meat on the bone, but most would probably want to see a pullback in the stock before taking a major position.

 

All-in-all this stock is built for growth and with it currently paying a generous 3.1% dividend, that has never been decreased or interrupted, it is a worthwhile bet that this ship will turn.

 

FY15 AT A GLANCE

It was a rough 1H FY15 for GIS, lowering its earnings and sales guidance in November 2014, because of continued weak food industry trends in the U.S. coupled by slow growth in key markets internationally. 2H FY15 has showed glimmers of hope, growing share/sales in key categories such as grain snacks, yogurt and RTE cereal and the continued strong performance of the Convenience Stores & Foodservice (C&F) segment as a whole.

 

FY15 was also a year of change for GIS.  Management is working through a major restructuring program and completed the $820 million acquisition of Annie’s.  We believe that management took a massive step forward this year and have acknowledged their mistakes of the past.  That being said, we believe that GIS could see another round of restructuring and would benefit from repositioning of its branded portfolio.    

 

 

QUARTERLY SUMMARY

 

GENERAL MILLS CLOSING OUT THE YEAR STRONG - chart 1 replacement 

 

First Quarter Fiscal Year 2015

QUOTE FROM KEN POWELL, “Back in June, we said our 2015 plans anticipated first-quarter EPS below year-ago levels. Our results were driven by sales and profit declines in the U.S., where industry trends were weak in the quarter. In addition, higher merchandising expense for our U.S. Retail businesses in this period depressed reported net sales and gross margin.”

 

Net sales for the total business declined 2% in 1Q FY15. Pound volume subtracted 2 points of growth, price realization and mix contributed 1 point of net sales growth, while foreign exchange subtracted 1 point of growth. Disappointingly, gross margin was below year-ago levels reflecting the lower net sales and product mix.

 

The U.S. Retail segment posted a disappointing 5% decline versus last year. Not all was bad, management stated that Snacks, Yoplait and Small Planet Foods all posted gains in the quarter. On the other hand, Meals and Baking Products had declining pound volume.  Poor execution on some of the 145 new products that were launched in the quarter led to higher costs. The new products introduced were 20% above last year’s number causing higher merchandising cost, which ended up being less effective coupled by a tough comp to last year. 

 

International started the year off strong and provided signs of hope in the quarter. Brazil experienced double digit growth coupled by strong performance in key European markets UK and France.

 

Management made the big announcement to the beginning of the restructuring which was Project Century, which at the time they were projecting $100 million in savings.

 

NET SALES GROWTH BY SEGMENT VERSUS LAST YEAR

 

GENERAL MILLS CLOSING OUT THE YEAR STRONG - chart 2 new new

 

Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2015

QUOTE FROM KEN POWELL, “Second-quarter results were broadly in line with the updated outlook we provided in early November. Net sales declined for the quarter as anticipated, reflecting continued weak food-industry trends in the U.S. and slowing growth in key emerging markets. Adjusted diluted EPS came in slightly better than our estimate, primarily due to differences in expense timing. These quarterly results keep us on track to achieve the full-year fiscal 2015 targets announced last month.”

 

Net sales for the total business declined 3% in 2Q FY15, including 1 point of growth contributed by the Annie’s acquisition. Actual pound volume was down 2% vs year-ago levels, while net price realization and mix added 1 point of net sales growth.

 

Management made some major announcements centered on the cost savings initiatives, Project Century, Project Catalyst and Policy & Practices Update.  Taken together, these projects are all meant to reorganize the business and right size expenses.  Total savings from the projects are expected to be more than $350mm by FY17. As part of Project Catalyst the U.S. Retail segment re-aligned its operating segments into five categories, Snacks, Yogurt, Cereal, Baking Products and Meals, designed to better serve the retailers and the consumers.  Wall Street was worried/confused about the collapse of Small Planet Foods into multiple other divisions but to alleviate the concern GIS established a natural and organic marketing center of excellence to focus on those key brands.

 

The company continues to be focused on growth through innovation, marketing and listening to the consumers. Yet, this focus has not manifested into substantial volume growth for the company.   Yoplait yogurt continues to gain share in the Greek segment, up 300 basis points versus 2Q FY14, and Yoplait Original is picking up steam as well.  The cereal category is one of the biggest battle grounds within the center-of-store, the category has been faced with declines, and so stealing share is the only way to gain.  GIS has continued to do this, picking up 60 basis points of dollar share in this quarter.  Looking out to FY16, the launch of Gluten-Free Cheerios could drive incremental market share gains.   

 

Strong snacks momentum, Grain Snacks FYTD retail sales are up 5%, Fruit Snacks up 4% and Natural/Organic Snacks are up 18%, all led by innovation.  Lastly, GIS completed the acquisition of Annie’s for $820 million and although it only contributed nine days of results to this current quarter, management is very excited about the potential this brand brings to the portfolio.

 

NET SALES GROWTH BY SEGMENT VERSUS LAST YEAR

 

GENERAL MILLS CLOSING OUT THE YEAR STRONG - chart 3 new

 

Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2015

QUOTE FROM KEN POWELL, “Our third-quarter results reflected strengthened operating performance. Our U.S. Retail segment posted net sales and profit growth including contributions from the Annie’s business acquired in October 2014. Constant-currency net sales and profit growth accelerated for our International segment. And the Convenience Stores and Foodservice segment led our operating results, with sales up 6 percent and profit up 11 percent.”

 

In 3Q FY15 net sales for the total business grew 3%, including 1 point of growth contributed by the Annie’s acquisition. Actual pound volume was down 1% vs year-ago levels, while net price realization and mix added 4 points of net sales growth.  The performance of the cereal category in 3Q FY15 supports our belief that GIS can improve its performance in the cereal category by rationalizing lagging brands.

 

The Convenience Stores & Foodservice (C&F) segment continues to be a focus for management as they highlighted in the Q3 earnings call. As we highlighted in our GIS Black Book, the C&F business has been transformed over the last 10 years, by shrinking the sku count and manufacturing locations as well as switching to a direct salesforce. In addition they divested non-core businesses such as, bread concentrate, frozen bread dough, bread crumbs and frozen pie shells.  When we see these actions creating such positive results we know that similar actions across the broader GIS portfolio will yield similar results.

 

NET SALES GROWTH BY SEGMENT VERSUS LAST YEAR

 

GENERAL MILLS CLOSING OUT THE YEAR STRONG - Chart 4 new

 

 

REVIEW OF GIS’S FIVE GLOBAL PLATFORMS

 

RTE CEREAL

Cereal is not dead, it has merely reached a point of maturity, and it’s up to manufacturers to reinvigorate the category through innovation.  As seen in the chart below, it has been a rough last three years for cereal, but we seem to be turning a corner as seen in the last 52-weeks period.

 

GENERAL MILLS CLOSING OUT THE YEAR STRONG - Chart 11

 

GIS is driving growth in cereal by listening to their consumers, results are very positive.  Granola variety cereals are up 26%, Cheerios Protein are up 80% and after adding more cinnamon to the CTC sales have risen 12%.  One of the most exciting launches is Gluten Free Cheerios, they will start shipping in 1Q16, and we believe that it will be a big hit with consumers.

 

Where a lot of our confidence in cereal comes from is the stellar performance of cereal within the C&F channel. In nine months of results in FY15 net sales of cereal are up 6% in school, proving people still like cereal and value its nutritional attributes.


ICE CREAM

The company has big plans for the Haagen-Dazs franchise in emerging markets, added 65 new shops in China and is starting expansion in the AMEA region with a goal to reach 600 shops by 2024.


YOGURT

U.S. yogurt has officially returned to growth, it was a long road here but the team put together growth versus last year in every quarter of FY15.  Through listening to the consumer, Yoplait Original is growing at a double digit rate versus last year.

 

GENERAL MILLS CLOSING OUT THE YEAR STRONG - chart 12

 

Yoplait is about to launch its yogurt business in China, this is expected to provide a substantial lift in sales in the long run.  Yogurt is said to be a $10 billion category in China and Yoplait intends to compete heavily to gain share. There is opportunity to expand yogurt consumption around the world; Brazil is most likely GIS’s next country to target.


CONVENIENT MEALS

This segment has become a huge source of growth in international markets. In Europe, Old El Paso retail dollar sales are up 12% versus last year, in Australia up 9% and Canada up 5%.  The Wanchai Ferry team continues to innovate especially on the frozen dim sum line in China which is excelling in the market. Yoki is more than they were hoping for and is extending will into the multiple category in the Brazil market.


SWEET & SAVORY SNACKS

Snacking is a global phenomenon and GIS is poised to take advantage, with strong brands in grain snacks, savory snacks, yogurt, sweet snacks and ice cream. Yoki has a 72.6 value share of the microwave popcorn market in Brazil, and AMEA holds great opportunities for baked snacks. But clearly the leader in snacks for GIS is grain snacks, GIS holds a growing 42.8 dollar share in the category. And they are not getting complacent they continue to innovate and grow with consumer preferences, adding in gluten free options, and bars with simpler ingredient decks.

 

CLOSING THOUGHTS

All-in-all fiscal year 2015 was a year of change and self-reflection for GIS and I believe they are better off for it. But now is not the time to come off the gas pedal, we want management to continue driving the business forward with innovation, strategic acquisitions/divestitures and a cost conscious mindset.

 

The GIS management team has taken on a lot in FY15, going through a major restructuring and integrating a new business all while innovating on core brands.  I am comfortable in saying that they have made improvements to the business, and I for one am excited to see what they have in store for fiscal year 2016.  I’m also confident in saying that if management does not get more aggressive with making changes, they might find themselves a target of activists!

 

As we enter a new fiscal year we expect to see exciting M&A news on both acquisitions and divestitures as well as continued turnaround on the core business.  FY16 is a pivotal year, we need to see that the restructuring and cost cutting initiatives have improved profitability and accelerated volume growth of the overall business. 

 

We see GIS as a WIN/WIN situation.  If FY16 looks more like FY15, the confidence in management will be shaken and any price decline would cause activists and or potential acquirers to bubble to the surface, which will further lift the stock price. We are holding our bullish stance on the name into their fourth quarter earnings report and expect strong performance/news in the coming quarters.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.58%
next