Here is the replay of today's edition of RTA Live.
Hedgeye Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin and Analyst Andrew Freedman hosted a live Q&A session Wednesday May 27th at 12:30PM ET. They gave a high level overview of our short thesis on Mednax (MD).
Tom and Andrew will also answered questions related to HCA, HOLX and ZMH, catch the replay above.
This note was originally published at 8am on May 12, 2015 for Hedgeye subscribers.
“When the mob gains the day, it ceases to be any longer the mob.”
In markets, the momentum mob constantly cares about one thing – #charts. Lots and lots and lots of charts. The linear moving average ones are the simplest to scare you with. My 5 year old daughter can generate them on an iPad, so they have the broadest demographic point-and-click appeal. It’s all about the 50 and 200 hundred day, bro.
No matter where you go this morning, here we are – in the midst of another “breakout” in US bond yields. Notwithstanding that this one has been caused by an epic breakout in Global Yields, US equity only guys looking at TLT have the “bearish chart” now inasmuch as they had the uber bearish Oil one down at $43/barrel.
Even though many of you were right on bond yields (lower-for-longer) for 16 months starting in January of 2014, if you remained bearish on bond yields at the 2015 lows like I did, you have been wrong (on bonds) for a month. And now the mob has you by the #charts, so it’s time to … uh, panic?
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
What’s a +28% ramp (in 24 hours) in German Bund Yields, amongst friends? That’s gotta be good for “stocks”, right? Wrong. As the bond yield #charts have “broken out”, sorry bros, it’s been bad for stocks too.
Q: If you can’t be long stocks or bonds, what do you do?
A: Raise cash
At 62% Cash in our Asset Allocation Model, at least we got something right. But most of that “raising cash” came from the equity side of what we liked in Q1. That said, what you really want to know is why I didn’t do the same in Treasuries?
Before I try to answer that question (again), let’s contextualize this epic 1-month move in Global Bond Yields:
- US 10yr Treasury = +34 basis points (bps) to 2.34%
- Canadian 10yr = +45 bps to 1.82%
- German 10yr = +53 bps to 0.68%
- French 10yr = +56 bps to 0.98%
- Italian 10yr = +60bps to 1.86%
- Portuguese 10yr = +84 bps to 2.42%
In other words, even if you don’t look at % moves and rates of change, on an absolute basis being long Treasuries vs. short just about everything else (1 through 5 on that list) was a relative winner!
Not on the performance part (German Bund Yield move was +353% vs. the UST move of +17%). When it comes to getting things right/wrong, I don’t calculate losses in cocoa-puff terms. TLT 1-month losses have been real. I should be held to account for that.
So why didn’t I pull a Jedi mind trick on all of you and book all of our gains in the Long Bond (TLT) at the top (with bond yields re-testing their all-time lows in January, or with the 10yr UTS yield down at 1.85% in April for that matter)?
I.e. there would be no fundamental way for me to explain it within the risk management framework in which our longer-term growth and inflation views evolve.
Which obviously begs the question as to whether or not a 1-month move in bond yields has rendered our #process broken OR it’s simply signaling that stocks and bonds don’t go up forever (with no volatility and no down-days).
To review what we believe (because market #history does):
- Both local and global bond yields falls when the rate of change in growth is SLOWING
- Both local and global bond yields rise when the rate of change in growth is ACCELERATING
With both the trending rate of change in both US and Global Growth #slowing (with our model suggesting y/y US growth slowing to 1.8% in 2H of 2015), there’s no fundamental reason for me to be bearish on Long-duration bonds other than price momentum.
This is where the whole #ChartChasing thing comes into play. In my former hedge fund life I used to see guys chasing 50 and 200 day moving monkeys all of the time. So I taught myself to remain calm and not do that. I shorted Russell 2000 yesterday instead.
If both gas prices and bond yields head higher (from here), someone is going to gain the day. And that’s not going to be the American and/or European consumer. It’ll be a mean macro mob, because their charts will tell you to be short everything.
Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now as follows:
UST 10yr Yield 1.91-2.32%
Oil (WTI) 55.62-61.12
Best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
LONG SIGNALS 80.52%
SHORT SIGNALS 78.67%
CALL TO ACTION
We remain negative on the Macau stocks but tactically we’d like to see a relief rally before re-shorting. The Galaxy Phase 2 opening could actually provide a little bit of a catalyst – it won’t be awful and but investor sentiment is awful ahead of this period of capacity increases. We’re projecting some market growth from the expansion but most of the business generated at Phase 2 should come from the other properties. For 2015/2016 we remain most concerned with the trends in base mass, which we believe are markedly worse than anticipated by the Street.
Please see our detailed note:
Editor's Note: Below is an excerpt and chart from today's Morning Newsletter written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to learn more and subscribe.
...Contextualized this way, the present (being YTD) is less than 6 months old. If you pull back your time-series #history to 1 year, obviously most of these “inflation” barometers have plummeted.
Five year breakevens is a fair way to consider inflation expectations, and while it’s true that those are +11 basis points for the current quarter, they are -32 basis points year-over-year. Newsflash: the Fed is not going to “raise rates” on that...
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