Initial Claims | Aggregate Claims Improve While Energy Layoffs Rise

Takeaway: The overall labor market remains supportive while job losses in the energy sector continue to grow.

Below is the breakdown of this morning's initial claims data from Joshua Steiner and the Hedgeye Financials team. If you would like to setup a call with Josh or Jonathan or trial their research, please contact 

 

JOB SEPARATIONS:  AGGREGATE vs ENERGY

Claims improved once again last week, falling to a seasonally adjusted 264k, continuing an impressive push below the frictional floor of 300k.

 

In the first chart below, we show that the spread between our indexed basket of energy state claims and the U.S. as a whole has tightened for the last few weeks, moving from 31.8 on April 11 to 24.8 on May 2.

 

However, the second chart below shows that the labor market in the energy sector worsened again in April. Job cut announcements in the energy sector had been running at 16-20k/month in January and February, but then appeared to show some glimmer of improvement when they fell to 1k in March. That didn't last long, as the latest data shows 20k more energy workers let go in April. 

 

Initial Claims | Aggregate Claims Improve While Energy Layoffs Rise - Claims18 normal  1

 

Initial Claims | Aggregate Claims Improve While Energy Layoffs Rise - Challenger

 

The Data

Initial jobless claims fell 1k to 264k from 265k WoW, as the prior week's number was unrevised. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims fell by -8k WoW to 272k.

 

The 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, another way of evaluating the data, was -14.2% lower YoY, which is a sequential improvement versus the previous week's YoY change of -12.2%

 

Initial Claims | Aggregate Claims Improve While Energy Layoffs Rise - 5.14.15Claims2

 

Initial Claims | Aggregate Claims Improve While Energy Layoffs Rise - 5.14.15Claims3

 

Initial Claims | Aggregate Claims Improve While Energy Layoffs Rise - 5.14.15Claims4

 

Initial Claims | Aggregate Claims Improve While Energy Layoffs Rise - 5.14.15Claims5

 

Initial Claims | Aggregate Claims Improve While Energy Layoffs Rise - 5.14.15Claims6

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more