The Macau Metro Monitor. October 27th, 2009





The total number of visitor and non-resident arrivals was 2,204,014 in September 2009; visitor arrivals for September 2009 increased by 3.8% year-over-year to 1,689,007.  


Analyzed by place of residence, visitors from Mainland China grew by 16.1% year-over-year to 878,479 (52% of total visitor arrivals), with 354,443 travelling to Macau under the Individual Visit Scheme (unchanged year-over-year). Visitors from Japan (44,763) and Indonesia (30,098) rose by 24.8% and 65.5% respectively; however, those from Hong Kong (492,603); Taiwan (96,382) and Malaysia (22,714) decreased by 9.6%, 6.4% and 29.1%. Same-day visitors (851,758) accounted for 50.4% of the total visitor arrivals, with 446,735 coming from Mainland China.





Grant Bowie, President of MGM Grand Paradise Limited, said that he is not concerned by visa restrictions being imposed by Beijing in Guangdong. He was quoted as saying, “Macau has a very fortunate and experienced industry. So we are in a much stronger position than anywhere else of the world. We should feel quite comfortable with that… [The territory] is very flexible and dynamic, and we’ll be able to respond to this issue (visa restrictions). It is a matter we can manage on a day-to-day basis. We will work positively to operate within the situation we have available to us."


WMS reported in line earnings and reiterated guidance. Given WMS's lofty multiple, in-line probably wasn't quite good enough for the stock. WAP's performance and backlog provide optimism though.



WMS reported Adjusted EPS of $0.36 in line with consensus and revenues of $165.3MM which missed street numbers by $2.5MM. WMS came in a penny light of our EPS number and $1.6MM shy of our revenue number.


3Q09 Detail: 


The entire revenue miss vs our expectations came from lower "other product sales revenues" while the Street was too aggressive on slot shipments.  WMS sold 4,851 new units, well below the Street projection of 5,500 units - one analyst actually projected 6,829 units.  We suspect that at least one analyst was incorrectly telling clients that WMS's shipment to Firekeepers was excluded from 4Q09 results and would be in 1Q2010.

  • New unit sales revenues came in line with our estimate, with higher ASPs compensating for slightly lower shipments
    • NA new unit shipments of 4,851 were 43 units below our estimate and international unit shipments were 77 light of our estimate
    • We estimate that WMS got 15% of new openings and expansions in NA and over 30% of replacement shipments - although we will have to wait for the other suppliers to report their results to confirm those numbers
    • Higher ASP's made up the revenue gap.  This is not unexpected, since any upside to new shipments would likely come from Class II or Helios platform jurisdictions, which have lower ASP
    • WMS expects flattish ASP's to from the current quarter starting in the 2H2010 with higher Blue Bird 2 (BB2) mix being offset by lower priced Helios sales
  • "Other product sales revenues" missed our mark by $1.6MM despite higher conversion kit shipments
    • Most of what was in used games this quarter were trade-in resales, not BlueBirds, so they were very low margin. Some quarters in the past they sold refurbished units which had higher prices and better margins
  • Gross profit was in line with our number, due to margins being 90 bps higher mix of BB2's 


Gaming operations revenues were in line with our expectations and gross margin was $1MM better than our estimate. As we wrote in our preview for the quarter on 10/23/2009, it was "all about WAPs"

  • WAPs had another huge quarter, adding 374 units sequentially after adding 386 units last quarter. Not only did the install base for WAPs growth 15% sequentially, but we estimate that average revenue per day also increased y-o-y
    • While there were many questions focused on growth in revenue per day and it's sustainability, a large portion of the growth was also mix driven, as WAP's generate more then 2x the average daily win of other participation products
  • Gains in WAP placements were offset by sequential declines in the install base for LAPs (116 units), stand alone games (271 units), and casino-owned daily fee games (101 units)
    • From a development standpoint WMS has put more emphasis behind the WAP platform, as can be seen with 3 major WAP game launches in the quarter. WMS has a large backlog for WAPs and should have another strong quarter in Dec. 
    • Some of the standalone's had very good longevity and that caught up with them this quarter.  We should see similiar attrition on standalone and LAPs next quarter.  In the second half of the year standalone units should grow if WMS's new games are successful, while LAPs are expected to stabilize and stay flattish in the back half of FY 2010. 

Below the gross margin line, R&D came in $2.3MM, or 10%, above our estimate, while D&A came in $0.4MM below our estimate due to the lower number of net additions to the participation install base


FY 2010 guidance was left unchanged but revenue guidance for 2Q2010 of $184-190MM is below consensus of $192MM. 

  • The December quarter should have higher domestic unit sales as there are materially more new openngs and expansions shipping in the quarter, including:
    • City Center (1,940 slots), River City (2,000), Choctow Casino in Oklahoma (3,000)
  • The December quarter is also seasonally slightly stronger for replacements than September ahead of New Year's and the holidays

LULU: Oh Happy Day

On Friday evening, LULU issued a Form 4 on behalf of CEO Christine Day noting that her spouse’s IRA had acquired 3,000 shares of LULU in an open market transaction on October 15th at $25.41. I guess that was not super noteworthy to me in light of the dozen or so filings I see every day and the fact that at $76k the dollar amount did not bowl me over.


But then after the close today I had a double take when I saw LULU positively preannounce the quarter.


Maybe I’m missing something… but am I the only one who thinks this is a wee bit peculiar?

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VFC: More Cons than Pros

No growth, peaky margins, above average portfolio, $5.25-$5.35 in EPS power next year, and a $78 stock (14.7x earnings). For VFC? I don’t get it.


This is one of those quarters that really makes me step back and scratch my head on VFC.


On one hand, it’s kinda tough to argue with the company’s financial management, portfolio strategy, and how they set expectations with the Street. We’re seeing improved profitability in Jeanswear and Outdoor – its two largest coalitions, and the sales/inventory spread took a meaningful turn up for the first time in 2-years. CFFO outlook went from $750mm to $800mm due to inventory reductions. And Nautica, the perennial doggie in the portfolio, actually rebounded – not bad at a time when there’s about $400-$500mm in LIZ business in department stores that’s up for grabs in the Spring.


But on the flip side, this company simply has no growth. The top line was down 5% -- no good. When we look at the underlying 2-yr run rate by stripping out FX, and acquisitions (from 2 yrs ago), we’re still looking at a 5% hit to revenue. When we look at Outdoor/Action Sports – VFC’s core growth driver – it was down 1%, and down 4% after we account for the fact that incremental growth is coming from company-owned retail. In addition, VFC has not conducted any acquisitions at a time when there are more undervalued assets than I’ve seen in years. If there was ever a time for a ‘deal company’ to do deals, wouldn’t this be it? This is concerning. It reinforces my view that business models that rely on acquisitions simply don’t fly relative to other quality growth businesses out there. I can't make a perma-bear statement there, but rather need to consistently ensure that the appropriate valuation gap exists between companies like VFC, and others that can grow.


What does that leave us with? No growth, peaky margins, above average portfolio, $5.25-$5.35 in EPS power next year, and a $78 stock (14.7x earnings). For VFC? I don’t get it.


VFC: More Cons than Pros - VFC OrgRev 10 09


VFC: More Cons than Pros - 10 26 2009 10 28 57 PM


VFC 3Q FY09 Earnings Call


Quarterly Highlights:

  • Jeanswear sales improving on 1yr & 2yr basis with sequential trends in margins improving
  • Outdoor sales lacking growth, but margins improving notably up 230bps yy;
  • Imagewear continues to struggle most of smaller coalitions
  • Raised lower end of guidance to $4.85-$5.00 up from $4.70-$5.00; and CFFO up to $800mm from $750mm
  • Increased expectation for stores to 80 up from 70 by FY09 year end


P&L Notables:

  • Gross margins down 5bps yy reflecting:
    • Improved margins in Outdoor and Action Sports business as well as Jeanswear
    • Greater % of full price retail sales
    • Expect GMs to exceed 45% in Q4
  • SG&A +68bps yy reflecting:
    • Higher pension expense (~100bps)
    • Retail growth
    • Offset in part by cost mgmt efforts
    • Expect SG&A margins to remain relatively flat to up slightly yy



  • Revs flat, up 3% in constant $$
  • Direct-to-Consumer up 17%
  • Expect even higher rev growth in Q4
  • Retail:
    • Stores: expect to end the year with 80 stores
    • Retail stores doing well



  • Revs down 10.5%, down 7% in constant $$ in 3Q
  • Domestic down 6%
    • Lee continues to gain share; revs down 1%
    • Wrangler strong at WMT with enhanced signage, but hurt in the mass market from loss of Riders brand programs (noted in Q2)
  • Int'l down 10% in constant $$ - partially offset by 17% growth in Asia jeans business
    • European Jeans business continues to be challenging
  • Op. margins expected to be nearly 2x Q4 F08 driven by higher gross margins (incl. 1x OMs were 8.4% in Q4 FY08)



  • Revs up 3%
  • Seven for All Mankind revs negative (mid-teen operating margins)
  • Direct-to-consumer and Asia were bright spots in the business, both had positive growth
    • YTD opened 13 stores and expect 20 by year-end



  • Revs down 15%
  • Uniform business struggling in current environment  - and poor attendance at sporting events hurting sales for licensed product



  • Revs up 4% - helped by a timing shift of shipments
  • Op. Margins up to 16% level and is expected to sustain DD in Q4
  • Kipling - agreed to distribute handbags on an exclusive basis to Macy's in U.S. starting in spring 2010 to 375 stores



  • International business down with revs down 6% in Europe in constant $$ (accounts for ~70% of Int'l sales)
    • Asia was a partial offset up 32% (~12% of sales)
    • Expect an increase in Int'l sales in Q4 on both constant $$ and reported basis
  • Retail: up 6% with 23 new stores opened in qtr (80% in full price format)
  • Buzz related to reorders due to lean retail inventories
    • Trend bodes well for NT margins



  • Inventories down ~$170mm (-13%) yy
  • CapEx $21mm
  • Repurchased 750,000shs in 3Q, expect similar amount in Q4


Outlook (Q4):

  • Revs
  • GMs above 45%
  • Expect SG&A margins to remain relatively flat to up slightly yy
  • Tax Rate of 26% for FY09 - implying 24% rate in 4Q
  • Repurchased 750,000shs in 3Q, expect similar amount in Q4






  • Seeing improvements from major rebranding
  • Chg in 2H of the year is the shift towards lower price points - more value focused product working much better
  • Reduction in off-price channel is ~15% yy


F2010 Fx & Pension Exp Outlook:

  • Fx could benefit the 1H of next year - Int'l stronger in Q1 and Q3 (assuming rates remain flat ~1.49 Euro, Fx would benefit revs by ~$110mm, or 3.5% and ~$0.15 in EPS benefit in 1H of F10 assuming 20% incremental margin)
  • Pension impact of $0.70 in EPS….all else being equal would equate to $15-$20mm favorable impact in FY10


Comp Store Trends:

  • Comps were flat to down slightly - expect to see improvement in Q4
  • Outdoor related stores were up mid-single digit


Retailers Short Inventory - Ability to Chase Demand:

  • Jeanswear has lots of capacity
  • Can go from purchase order to DC in 20 days
  • Most Outdoor related goods (i.e. tents, equipment) made in Asia could not be turned around in time to be realized in Q4
  • Believe they are better positioned than most to be able to chase demand in Q4
  • VFC lean in terms of inventory - rather chase sales


FY09 Outlook:

  • Some uncertainty related to 2H is past so brought up low end
  • Cautious to the upside due to uncertainty surrounding Q4 holiday season


TNF Spring Orders:

  • Spring orders positions stronger - up mid-single digit (in constant $$)
  • International might be even stronger
  • In U.S. ~80%-85% of business done off of pre-book business


SG&A Expense Control:

  • Less of a reduction compared to Q2 yy decline
  • Pension and retail driving SG&A higher offset in part by cost reduction efforts
  • Advertising spend was down 50-60bps, but still at relatively high level


Inventory Levels:

  • Have ~100 days of inventory - can supply 3mo+ with no further production


Shift Towards Lower Price Points - Brands/Segments Positioned to Benefit:

  • No specific call outs, but do believe they are gaining share in certain markets with weaker branded competitors


Retail Doors:

  • Now expect up to 80 stores in F09 up from 70 as of Q2
  • Roughly 80% full-price
  • Outlet openings only driven by capacity to move excess product
  • U.S. makes up greater % of growth ~75%+


Jeanswear - Regional Trends:

  • European business is still challenging
  • Eastern European business built over the last several years is struggling



  • Still busy and active, nothing to report at this time


Licensing Model:

  • Chance of moving any wholesale businesses to license model?
  • Have hired a new leader still in first 90-days on the job
  • Looking for new brands as well as evaluating ones in current portfolio


Gross Margin - View Above 45%:

  • Restructuring impacts of last year had no impact on GMs
  • Retail business will boost margins by ~100bps
  • Rest is primarily driven by operations
    • Both in U.S. and European businesses


Industry/Company Capacity:

  • Own ~25% of manufacturing
  • Roughly 50% of jeans are sourced


Pricing - Targeted Channels of Distribution:

  • In Lee AUR in mid-tier is actually up and its taking share
  • Claim to be taking share at KSS and JCP and Sears with higher AUR
  • Higher end of retail spectrum (Saks & Nieman Marcus) comps have been weaker than mass and mid-tier
  • Expect global revs to be down slightly Fx neutral - pleased with that


Product Costs:

  • Helping in 3Q and especially in 4Q - had been a drag in 1H of F09
  • Don't see any reason for these benefits to change significantly


Smaller Brand Call Outs:

  • Lucy - in a tough stop right now (LULU just preannounced better 3Q results AMC)
  • Kipling and Napapijri have had a great run internationally
  • Reef is stable, but has not grown the way they would have liked


Vans Trends/Outlook:

  • Hasn't lost momentum due to the recession
  • Terrific geographic opportunity - particularly in Asia
  • Still growing strong in US

 Casey Flavin


WMS's 1Q2010 results are better then they look at first glance. Although, given the lofty multiple and high expectations, in-line may not be good enough.


At first glance, it looks like WMS came in below expectations and guidance looked equally uninspiring. However, looking under the hood, results are not bad at all - at least not relative to our expectations. We think some investors were hoping for a raise in FY guidance.



  • Dynamics of the market are consistent with their expectations. However, meetings with casino operators since August have been positive
  • WMS has a 13% share of current slots on the markets, and with current ship share rates in the 24% range, they believe that they have a large opportunity
  • Think that replacements will increase moderately in CY2010, but that with entry into new Class II markets, Helios platform, and international growth, WMS's growth can outpace the market


Quarterly overview

  • WAP units are becoming a larger percentage of their participation base and contributes to better ROI and average daily fee earned per day
  • Realizing significant success on REEL 'EM IN, COMPETE TO WIN game, performance on par with WIZARD OF OZ
  • While new unit sales declined, ASPs increased, due to higher BB2 mix.
  • 550 units were due to new units, balance were replacements 2,400
  • Shipped to two Indian gaming casinos in 1Q2010
  • Shipped to Mexico this quarter
  • Are starting second field trial in Australia this quarter
  • Believe that they have plenty of room to grow margins
  • WC was a cash drain this quarter;  higher royalty expenses, higher stock comp, longer term financing options, and A/P timing all negatively impacted cash flow this quarter.


Financial highlights

  • Realized higher average daily fees and margins as a result of WAPs becoming an increasingly large part of their participation base
  • D&A was flat as they benefit from efficiencies, keeping participation games in the field longer and having more fully depreciated units in their install base
  • The tax rate was a little higher than they anticipated but they expect it to increase slightly in 2Q2010, and increase again in 2H201 as the tax credit expires and the rate goes to to 37%
  • Net cash balance of $120MM, subsequently, by quarter end another $25.7MM of the converts were converted to stock. Have 58.7MM shares outstanding and market cap of $2.8BN. Net net they will save 500k in CY2010



  • Guidance assumes lower play levels in line with usual seasonality
  • Continue to expect sequential growth in March & June quarters
  • Reiterated FY 2010 revenue guidance
  • Potential growth markets for beyond 2010:
    • CA, IL, Maryland, Ohio, Kentucky, MA
    • Singapore, Phillipines, Spain, Japan, Italy
  • WMS is uniquely positioned to benefit from networked gaming through software and systems
  • Working on several master purchase agreements and multi-year purchase arrangements



  • Some of the new competitor's products look similar to WMS's
    • Imitation is the highest form of flatterly - will continue to try and stay ahead of the market
  • Feel good about their guidance - things are progressing along with their expectations
    • Upside is possible, but will come from better replacement cycle/ market share gain
  • Change in competitive environment; re: financing/discounts?
    • Not really
  • Opportunity to improve margins ... goal of getting to 25% operating margin
    • They were up 300 bps in their seasonally slowest quarter, and as volumes ramp that should help them achieve that
  • How sustainable is the growth in their daily revenue per day?
    • As long as they keep delivering good content and increasing mix to more WAP it will help them
  • Have they starting thinking about the next version of Blue Bird cabinets?
    • Yes - can see BB3 at G2E
    • Think Helios will be important for markets where win per day is lower and cant afford a 16k machine
  • I really don't understand why people keep asking the same question about win per days and their success... their games perform well, hence they grow the footprint. WAP games earn over $125 perday (our guess is over $130 this Q) hence the more games they place here the higher the overall daily fee... what's confusing here???
  • Focus on the yield vs just growing the footprint should see over install base growth though throughout the balance of the year
  • Customers are very excited about the networked gaming applications and BB2
    • They are referring to a lot of the "networked features" like customer recognition and community gaming already in their games.  Wagenet will allow customers to put those features on banks of games
  • Australia?
    • Second phase of a 2 phase field trial - trial should finish by CY2009
  • Italy and Brazil are also exciting markets for them
  • ASPs internationally are similar to NA
  • Less than 10% of participation games are outside the US because many markets don't allow for that pricing model
  • Placements in Class II markets domestically
    • Pursing for sale model in these markets - literally just went live in the last few weeks - small shipments
    • Shipments to Mexico were all Class III (included in international)
  • Helios platform launch
    • Markets where that platform works well? Lots of international markets don't do more than $30-$40 per day so a 10k ASP makes a lot more sense
  • Are they underpricing their WAP product?
    • Kind of a redundant question since WAP gets % of coin in and the better the games do the more WMS earns... what am I missing?
  • How much of the ASP growth is due to mix vs price increases?
    • Last year 17% were BB2, so there is a big mix impact, think that by 2/3Q2010 mix will be over 70% of shipments
  • REEL EM IN, COMPETE TO WIN is performing at WIZARD OF OZ level or better




The Economic Data calendar for the remainder of the week is full of critical releases and events.  Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.  


WEEK AHEAD - wk 10 27


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The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.52%
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