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Fed Day Live on HedgeyeTV @ 2:15pm EST

Watch live analysis of the FOMC Statement at 2:15PM ET below.

 
 

 

Fed Day Live on HedgeyeTV @ 2:15pm EST - Bob Rich Hawkish or Dovish

 

Topics of discussion:

 

  • What is the likely direction of long-term interest rates from here?
  • Can the U.S. dollar continue grinding higher amid consensus long complacency and an easier Fed?
  • Is the “Reflation Rally” in energy, EM and commodity currencies over or does it have legs?
  • Will 2015 be a “sell in May and go away” year?
  • What is an appropriate gross and/or net exposure to have as we traverse the next 3-6 months?

 

There will be a Q&A session at the end of the prepared remarks. Simply enter your question(s) anonymously into the chat to have Keith and the team address them.

 

-The Hedgeye Macro Team


Lower for Longer | 1Q15 GDP

Summary:   1Q GDP was expectedly soft at just +0.2% QoQ while accelerating to +3.0% on a year-over-year basis given the easy comp dynamics.  Consumption growth was a relative positive although the large rise in the savings rate drove the weakest print in household spending growth in a year.  Energy related Investment got cut in half and the confluence of strong dollar, flagging export demand, and relative domestic economic strength drove a widening trade gap and a -1.25% contribution to growth from net exports.  Expect the Fed to acknowledge the softening but maintain policy flexibility by highlighting residual seasonality, externalities and firming inflation expectations.   

 

Lower for Longer | 1Q15 GDP - UNITED STATES

 

The Data:  C + I + G + NX

  • C: +1.9% QoQ and contributing +1.31 = strongest part of report but also weakest in a year with goods consumption flagging alongside the largest sequential increase in the savings rate since (the fiscal cliff impacted) 2012. 
  • I:  +2.0% QoQ and contributing  +0.34 =  Residential fixed investment softened in conjunction with the severe weather in 1Q while Non-Residential investment declined -3.4% QoQ alongside a halving in energy related investment and ongoing reticence by corporate management to accelerate capex into decelerating global growth, past peak margins and percolating labor cost inflation.  Inventory accumulation was a sizeable support to total investment spending, contributing +0.7 to headline
  • G:  -0.8% QoQ and contributing -0.15 on the quarter.  
  • NX: Contributing -1.25 with exports -7.2% QoQ and Imports +1.8% = strong dollar/slumping export demand/relative economic strength driving a widening trade gap = lowest exports contribution in a year

 

Savings Rate:  Income ↑, Savings ↑, Spending ↓:  Savings Rate ticked up to +5.5% in 1Q15 vs. +4.6% in 4Q14.  Aggregate incomes continue to increase but the rising savings rates continues to mute the translation to realized household spending growth. 

 

Inflation:  Price softening modestly sequentially but core prices are stabilizing and Fed will looks towards the firming data/outlook

 

Real Final Sales (GDP less Inventory Change), Gross Domestic Purchases (GDP less exports, including imports), Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers (GDP less exports less inventory change) = all decelerating sequentially 

 

Lower for Longer | 1Q15 GDP - GDP 1Q15 Table

 

 

POLICY:   The net of domestic 1Q Macro data = lower for longer – something the market has been pricing in as we traversed the quarter. 

 

The Fed will moderate its assessment of economic conditions/momentum but will refrain from translating that into an explicit policy conclusion.    A host of factors are rhetorically supportive of the Fed’s “transient” view of 1Q weakness including residual seasonality, firming inflation expectations, resumption of west coast port activity, a retreat in the dollar’s ascent and probable sequential improvement in the April employment report. 

 

Residual seasonality in 1Q has been the new normal (ave GDP by Quarter chart below), breakevens have rallied, Core CPI/PCE/Billion prices project have stabilized, the weather drag has reversed (as evidenced in the March/April housing data) and each instance of marked sequential deceleration in net monthly employment gains over the last five years has been followed by a strong rebound in net hiring. 

 

In short, the sequential deceleration in the 1st quarter was real but its magnitude was likely overstated and the Fed has enough fodder to keep its prospective policy path largely unchanged as its data dependency engine trolls for disconfirming/confirming 2Q data.     

 

Lower for Longer | 1Q15 GDP - Energy Structure Investment

 

Lower for Longer | 1Q15 GDP - Residual Seasonality

 

Lower for Longer | 1Q15 GDP - inflation expectations

 

Lower for Longer | 1Q15 GDP - Net Investment

 

Christian B. Drake

@HedgeyeUSA

 


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Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

Keith's Macro Notebook 4/29: U.S. Dollar | UST 10YR | Asia

 

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares the top three things in his macro notebook this morning.


GS: Removing Goldman Sachs from Investing Ideas

Takeaway: We are removing Goldman Sachs from Investing Ideas today.

Please be advised that we are removing Goldman Sachs from Investing Ideas today. Shares of Goldman have risen 3.6% since being added on 3/25 versus a 0.78% return for the S&P 500.

GS: Removing Goldman Sachs from Investing Ideas - 44

 

Below is a brief note from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on the decision.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *

GS was a catalyst driven way (we thought they’d have a great quarter, and they did) to build up our Investing Ideas list when the US stock market was oversold. Now that a bad headline GDP report and an easier Fed are priced in, I want to reduce the size of the list – and this is one way to express that.

 

Our fundamental research view on Goldman Sachs (GS) has not changed. This is a portfolio/market timing call. Its generated the alpha we wanted.

 

KM

 

 


Risk Ranges Widening

Client Talking Points

USD

The USD is hitting 2 month lows on the combination of what are now consensus expectations for an easier Fed and a big bounce in Greece (stocks v-bottomed off bombed out lows in Athens on the “no exit” headlines); if the Fed isn’t dovish enough today, the USD can easily bounce off this oversold signal.

UST 10YR

It is hard to discern whether bonds are front-running a “not dovish enough” Fed, but the levels really matter here as we’ve seen plenty of bounces to lower-highs in rates for the last 16 months. Our immediate-term risk range for the UST 10YR is 1.85-2.02 and that’s as wide as the range has been in 2 months.

ASIA

Asia experienced one of the weaker sessions in a while with Indonesia down another -2.5% (down -7.1% in 3 days), Australia -1.8%, and India continuing to break down (BSE Sensex is now bearish TREND signal) – Thailand unexpectedly cut rates and stocks dropped -0.8% there too.

Asset Allocation

CASH 40% US EQUITIES 12%
INTL EQUITIES 14% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 30% INTL CURRENCIES 4%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
MTW

The Dodge Construction Starts Index accelerated at its highest rate since 1982. The index was driven largely by non-building projects, which was 74% higher for the first three months compared to last year. The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), a survey of architects, increased ~3% month-over-month and ~5% year-over-year for March. The ABI Index typically leads nonresidential and residential construction spending by 9-12 months. More importantly, the ABI Index leads Manitowoc Crane Orders by 2 quarters. This suggests MTW’s crane sales should see a pickup in the first half of the year. MTW reports April 29th after the close. Earnings Call will be held at 10:00am eastern time the following day.

ITB

iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) is a great way to play our long housing call. Housing went 4 for 4 in a data heavy calendar for the sector this week with demand improving across both the new and existing markets and the fledgling acceleration in price growth finding some positive confirmation. The builder stocks had a choppy week of performance as investors held mixed opinions of earnings reports and management commentary out of DHI and PHM but, from a fundamental data perspective, the Trend remains one of discrete improvement.

TLT

Ten-year rates dipped 12bps on the week (forward-looking growth expectations) and the USD got crushed for a 1.5% loss. Growth and inflation expectations get priced in AHEAD of the more dovish policy tone resulting from any sign of deterioration in the labor market. Wednesday’s Fed meeting will be the next catalyst that will steer the market’s expectation on forward-looking growth and inflation. We expect the dots (forward-looking federal fund rate expectations) to be pushed out….again.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

*THIS MORNING* The Macro Show, Live with @KeithMcCullough + special guest at 8:30AM ET https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/43771-the-macro-show-live-with-keith-mccullough-at-8-30am-et … via @hedgeye

@Hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

If you are not willing to risk the usual you will have to settle for the ordinary.

Jim Rohn

STAT OF THE DAY

U.S. Purchase Applications were 0% week-over-week, up +20.8% year-over-year.


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