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INSTANT INSIGHT: Jobless Claims Data = Labor Market Remains (Very) Healthy For Now

Takeaway: April claims data suggests the labor market remains very healthy for now. Looking back 20 years, only one year (Y2K) saw a stronger April.

This is an excerpt of a research note originally published earlier this morning. Click here for more information on how you can subscribe to our services.

INITIAL CLAIMS | ROCK STEADY

Claims rose only slightly week over week to 295k from 294k and the 4-week rolling average, now at 284.5k, has held strong within a tight range of 282.8k to 284.5k for four weeks.

 

Looking at the current data in the context of history (as we show in the first chart below) the sum of seasonally adjusted claims in the first three weeks of April are below those seen in every year since 1996 with the sole exception of 2000. 

 

The energy states basket decoupled further from the broader US in the week ending April 11th, even with the price of oil bouncing a bit. The spread between the energy and non-energy baskets widened to 31.9 from 27.0 in the most recent week. We show this in the second chart below.

 

INSTANT INSIGHT: Jobless Claims Data = Labor Market Remains (Very) Healthy For Now - claims april vs prior years

 

INSTANT INSIGHT: Jobless Claims Data = Labor Market Remains (Very) Healthy For Now - Claims18

 

 


Short Bill Gross and the Bond Bears (Again)

Editor's Note: This is an excerpt from Hedgeye research this morning. If you're curious and considering becoming a subscriber (a very good idea), please feel free to take a look around and see how we can help you by clicking here.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *

So, a very loud and vocal chorus of Bond Bears was out in force yesterday (see Bill Gross on German Bunds… and in the U.S., those saying the Housing data was “too good”, so that meant the Fed would hike, etc, etc).

 

All that chirping accomplished was tap the top-end of our 1.84-1.99% immediate-term risk range for 10YR UST (which we are still long via TLT).

 

Our advice? Buy red, sell green. In other words, buy more bonds at the top-end of the yield range.

 

Rinse and repeat.

 

Short Bill Gross and the Bond Bears (Again) - zowsa


investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

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JAPAN ECONOMIC UPDATE: WIN-WIN-WIN?

Takeaway: We reiterate our bullish bias on Japanese equities amid a powerful trifecta of supportive factors.

Below watch a video update of our intermediate-to-long term thesis on the Japanese economy and its financial markets.

 

CLICK HERE to download the associated presentation in PDF format (11 slides).

 

As always, feel free to ping us with questions.

 

Best of luck out there,

 

DD

 

Darius Dale

Associate


Keith's Macro Notebook 4/23: VIX | UST 10YR | Gold

Hedgeye's Macro Analyst Darius Dale shares the the top three things in CEO Keith McCullough's macro notebook this morning.


Retail Callouts (4/23): SKX, TJX, ZQK, SPLS, EBAY

Takeaway: Removing SKX from our short bench.

EVENTS TO WATCH

Retail Callouts (4/23): SKX, TJX, ZQK, SPLS, EBAY - 4 20 chart2

 

 

COMPANY HIGHLIGHTS

 

SKX - Removing From Short Bench

 

Takeaway: We’re removing SKX from our Short Bench. We added the name to the Bench on Monday after we flagged it as a negative on our SIGMA screen this past week. As a reminder, this analysis triangulates the P&L and balance sheet to hone in on which companies are likely to beat on the Gross Margin line, and of course...which companies are going to miss. We were looking for 1) the SIGMA trajectory coming out of 1Q15 and 2) the quality of the print. Both of which looked good enough for us to pull this name off our radar screen on the short side for now.

Retail Callouts (4/23): SKX, TJX, ZQK, SPLS, EBAY - 4 23 chart1

 

 

OTHER NEWS

 

EBAY - Ebay lays out post-split vision for marketplace and PayPal

(http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/be5f96a4-e92c-11e4-b7e8-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Y85swnQj)

 

TJX - TJX chairman Cammarata to retire, CEO Meyrowitz will succeed him

(http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/tjx-chairman-cammarata-retire-ceo-meyrowitz-will-succeed-him)

 

ZQK - Quiksilver Investor Renews Calls for Retailer to Pursue Sale

(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-22/quiksilver-investor-urges-retail-chain-to-put-itself-up-for-sale)

 

SPLS - Staples Acquires Makr to Make More Design Services Happen

(http://investor.staples.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=96244&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2039135)

 

ABG Acquires Jones New York And Taps Mark Weber, Former CEO LVMH, Inc., As Strategic Advisor

(http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/abg-acquires-jones-new-york-and-taps-mark-weber-former-ceo-lvmh-inc-as-strategic-advisor-300070947.html)

 

Bill Langsdorf Named to Lead Former Wet Seal

(http://wwd.com/business-news/human-resources/bill-langsdorf-lead-former-wet-seal-10115497/)

 

Kering - Puma Appoints General Manager for EMEA

(http://wwd.com/business-news/human-resources/puma-appoints-general-manager-for-emea-10115485/)

 

M - Macy's gets intimate with Heidi Klum

(http://www.retailingtoday.com/article/macys-gets-intimate-heidi-klum)

 

Ikea changes the rules on high-tech furnishings

(http://www.retailingtoday.com/article/ikea-changes-rules-high-tech-furnishings)

 

Metro interested in some Target Canada stores

(http://www.chainstoreage.com/article/metro-interested-some-target-canada-stores)

 

Sears Hometown and Outlet CEO to leave Aug. 1

(http://www.retailingtoday.com/article/sears-hometown-and-outlet-ceo-leave-aug-1)


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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