Watch our bi-weekly update on our active Macro Themes and Thematic Investment Conclusions below.


CLICK HERE to download the associated presentation in PDF format (20 slides).


As always, feel free to ping us with questions.


Have a great weekend,




Darius Dale


SPECIAL INVITATION: Margaritas & Macro With Hedgeye's CEO and Analysts

SPECIAL INVITATION: Margaritas & Macro With Hedgeye's CEO and Analysts - cinco de macro

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  • DATE: Tuesday, May 5th  
  • TIME 5:00 - 7:00PM EST
  • LOCATION: Hedgeye's Stamford, CT Office
  • RSVP: Ping Matt Moran at 

We're back at it again! You are cordially invited to our smartly designed HQ in Stamford, CT to explore the current macro environment and discuss the best places to allocate capital.


To celebrate Cinco de Mayo, we'll also break out for beverages (including margaritas), hors d'oeuvers, and give you the opportunity to speak 1-on-1 with Hedgeye's macro team. This will be an amazing opportunity to meet one of the most polarizing names on Wall Street, our CEO Keith McCullough, and learn about the global macro process that has lead us to make myriad prescient macro calls.


Topics for the formal presentation will include:

  • Our non-consensus call on the Fed's timeline for a rate hike and what that means for rate sensitive securities in the intermediate-term
  • Ways to play an emerging U.S. housing recovery amidst the backdrop of deregulation and positive inflection points in the core data
  • How economic signals based on our GIP (growth/inflation/policy) predictive model translate into actionable, alpha generating macro themes


Don't miss this night of drinks and macro insight! RSVP to reserve a spot.


-The Hedgeye Macro Team


Cartoon of the Day: The Real #FlashCrash Perp Identified

Cartoon of the Day: The Real #FlashCrash Perp Identified - Flash crash cartoon 04.22.2015

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Takeaway: A difficult comp, but the March decline in taxi traffic suggests another disappointing GGR month that could depress Q1 EPS for MGM/WYNN

  • As seen in the chart below, monthly Strip non-Baccarat drop and NV taxi traffic closely track each other – correlation coefficient of 0.57 and a t-stat of 9.0
  • March taxi traffic declined 5.2% and while the comp was difficult at +10.9%, so was the non-bacc drop comparison, +6.2%
  • Following a strong January when GGR grew 15%, February was weak at –4% and now March is looking potentially lower as well
  • These are not exactly the figures of a ‘strong Las Vegas recovery’


Buy Germany On A Pullback

With the German equity market (DAX) pulling back just under -1% today, we reiterate that we remain bullish on German equities and recommend buying the market on down days.


We are well aware that the DAX is already up 20.5% YTD (vs SPX ~ 2%), yet we think it will pay to obey the commands of the central planners, in particular Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” ECB policy position.


To reiterate our thesis:

  • QE is only just beginning; the euro should continue to weaken; Germany is likely to disproportionately benefit due to exports; and asset classes like equities are likely to inflate due to money creation
  • The German economy sits in the sweet spot to benefit from a weaker euro as its exports account for a monster 47% of German GDP
  • Since the ECB announced QE on 1/22/15 the correlation between the DAX and EUR/USD is -0.84, a strong negative correlation that we expect to persist as the ECB keeps its foot on the QE pedal for longer than its intended target (late 2016)
  • Recommending long the DAX (HEWG or EWG) and short EUR/USD (FXE)


If you missed our call “Germany: Still Bullish” on 4/14, CLICK HERE for a 30 minute video replay that walks through 40 slides of supporting material.


Already this week there have been a number of “fundamental” data points that we think will grind the EUR/USD lower and the German equity market higher:

  • There appears to be no resolve on Greece’s debt issues, with Friday’s Eurogroup meeting expected to pass without formal loan/concession agreements. The next catalyst is an IMF loan repayment due May 12th.
  • Everyone from Draghi, Junker, and the German leadership was out this week confirming that a “Grexit” is off the table. Ultimately we think debt restructuring is the likely outcome, and we expect a long timetable and political consternation to get the Greeks to better meet Eurozone demands & conditions.
  • German ZEW economic survey for APR showed an improvement for the 6th straight month in Current Expectations (70.2 vs 55.1), however the forward looking Expectations survey dipped slightly to 53.3 vs 54.8, the first tick down after 5 straight months of improvement.
  • The German Economy Ministry revised up its outlook on German growth, with 2015 GDP forecast at 1.8% vs prior 1.5% and 2016 GDP at 1.8% vs prior 1.6%.
  • From a quantitative perspective the DAX remains in a bullish formation, trading above its TRADE, TREND, and TAIL levels of support, whereas the EUR/USD remains in a bearish formation, trading below its TRADE, TREND, and TAIL levels of resistance. (see charts below)

Buy Germany On A Pullback - vv. dax

Buy Germany On A Pullback - vv. eur

Keith's Macro Notebook 4/22: China | USD | Housing

Hedgeye Macro Analyst Darius Dale shares the top three things in CEO Keith McCullough's macro notebook this morning.

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real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.