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Keith's Macro Notebook 4/16: Commodities | Australia | Eurozone

 

Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones  shares the top three things in CEO Keith McCullough's macro notebook this morning.


Commodities, Australia and Greece

Client Talking Points

COMMODITIES

A weaker dollar is positive for commodities, as the Fed downwardly revised growth and inflation targets on March 18th the USD has been down about 1.6% against the CRB Index which has been lead by Energy. Our immediate-term risk range for the USD is 98.01-100.24 (the USD remains in a bullish formation).

 

AUSTRALIA

The Australian Dollar is up about 1.3% this morning after a strong employment report. They added more than expected full time jobs in March about 37.3K, Australia's unemployment rate has now fallen to 6.1%. The labour force participation rate jumped to 64.8% in March from a revised 64.7% in February.

GREECE

The major index in Greece is down about 5.5% on the week, the big challenge here is that there has been little to no progress with Greece’s international creditors. Germany’s Finance Minister effectively came out yesterday and said no one expects a deal to be made next week (the Eurogroup is meeting on April 24th).

Asset Allocation

CASH 33% US EQUITIES 13%
INTL EQUITIES 15% COMMODITIES 2%
FIXED INCOME 29% INTL CURRENCIES 8%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
MTW

Manitowoc  (MTW) is splitting the business into two companies. While the crane business receives the most attention in part due to its cyclicality and because they are well, more noticeable, Manitowoc’s other business, Foodservice equipment, is the larger of the two in terms of operating income (60% vs. 40% for Cranes). Several indicators are pointing towards upward momentum for MTW’s Foodservice business. Restaurant same store sales have benefitted since the drop in oil prices. Furthermore, an indicator by the National Restaurant Association, RPI Capital Expenditures Index, has surged recently in part due to lower fuel prices driving restaurant traffic and restaurant owners’ outlook.

ITB

iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) is a great way to play our long housing call. The housing data was again strong in the latest week with Pending Home Sales, HPI and Purchase Demand all accelerating to close out March. Pending Home Sales rose +3.1% sequentially in February with signed contract activity up a remarkable +12% YoY, taking the index to a new 19-month high. Mortgage Purchase Applications – the most real-time, high frequency housing demand indicator - rose +5.7% WoW on the back of last week’s +4.9% advance and accelerated to +7.6% on a year-over-year basis. HPI: The Case-Shiller 20-city series showed home prices grew +4.6% year-over-year in January.  A stabilization/inflection in home price growth is important as housing related equity performance tracks the slope of home price growth strongly.

TLT

It was another week of declining long-term yields getting you paid on the long-side of Low-volatility Long Bonds (TLT). To reiterate our view over the longer-term, we pin a good chance the U.S. Dollar will reach new highs ($120 anyone?) with the probably of long-term Treasury yields reaching all-time lows very much in play.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to be senior adviser to Citadel Investment - NY Times

@HedgeyeEurope

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Never say never, because limits, like fears, are often just an illusion.

Michael Jordan

STAT OF THE DAY

By one estimate U.S. online political advertising could quadruple to nearly $1 billion in the 2016 election (Reuters).


Retail Callouts (4/16): NKE, UA, CROX, KSS, JCP, ETSY, GES, SHLD

Takeaway: Athletic brands spending big on women. More wage pressure – still more to come. Etsy IPO – Good Idea or Bad Idea? CROX looking better to us.

COMPANY HIGHLIGHTS

 

NKE - Launches Largest Women's Campaign Ever

(http://www.adweek.com/adfreak/nike-turns-cant-can-its-largest-womens-campaign-ever-164059)

Takeaway: We always cringe when we hear 'biggest campaign ever'. The way we see it, if a company is growing, shouldn't every year mark the 'biggest campaign ever'? In fact, Nike generates about 20% of its sales from women -- or $5bn+. Put in context, Nike's women's sales are 10-20% greater than the combined total sales of UnderArmour and Lululemon.  That said, Nike sees that LULU will arguably stop ceding share, and they see full well that UnderArmour is putting on a full court press with the recent signing of Misty Copeland and Gisele Bundchen -- on top of Kevin Plank's statement that Womens should be as large, if not larger than its Men's business.  UA might be a threat...but perhaps the scariest number of all is Nike's $10bn SG&A budget. It could double its dollars for its' Womens line and nobody would even notice -- except the competition.

Retail Callouts (4/16): NKE, UA, CROX, KSS, JCP, ETSY, GES, SHLD - 4 16 chart1B

 

Giant Foods to raise minimum pay to $9 an hour

(http://www.pennlive.com/food/index.ssf/2015/04/giant_wages_9_a_hour.html)

Takeaway: Some companies may use the recent wage hike trend to hug their employees with a  press release on wages that has minimal effect on the bottom line.  Here Giant Foods is taking their minimum wage up to $9 an hour, noting that 2/3 of the employees already make more than that.  Still 10,000 employees are getting a pay bump, and the Giant employees who already made $9/hr a week ago are probably now haggling their supervisors for a fair raise as well.

Our analysis shows that for wages in the department store space, KSS is at most risk with the highest potential impact to EPS, and the lowest compensation rate according to glassdoor. 

This is not an issue now, and that's fine. But when retailers inflate temporary workforces in July ahead of back-to-school, and then again (but to a greater degree) around holiday, we think that the spread between those who have proactively managed workforces (WMT, TGT, TJX, MCD, etc…) versus those who have not (KSS, JCP, M) will widen.

Retail Callouts (4/16): NKE, UA, CROX, KSS, JCP, ETSY, GES, SHLD - 4 16 chart2

 

ETSY - Etsy Inc. Prices IPO at $16 Share

(http://www.wsj.com/articles/etsy-inc-prices-ipo-at-16-share-1429132484)

Takeaway:  So...Etsy is going public. This is either a really good idea, or a really bad idea. We're inclined to think it is the latter. Etsy is an online marketplace for handmade or vintage items, as well as manufactured goods that fit Etsy's 'green' guidelines.   Etsy has about 54 million members -- about 39% of which are active. There are 1.4mm active sellers and 19.8mm active buyers globally.  One interesting point is that Etsy is the largest B-Corp to go public. To meet B-Corp certification standards, a company has to meet certain environmental, transparency, and accountability standards. In addition, it made a 'considerable' commitment to consider the interests of its stake holders, not just its shareholders.  That's admirable -- though as investors we need to account for how this approach accrues to shareholders. If it drives more active users -- both buyers and sellers -- then it's a pretty unique idea. But the stakes are high given that this company generates about $195mm in revenue, a 57% gross margin (good), but is losing money.

Retail Callouts (4/16): NKE, UA, CROX, KSS, JCP, ETSY, GES, SHLD - 4 16 chart3B

 

CROX - Crocs, Inc. Appoints Coach's Ian Bickley to Board of Directors

(http://investors.crocs.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=193409&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2035069)

Takeaway: Good move by CROX -- something we like to see as the name is on our Long Bench.

 

 

OTHER NEWS

 

TGT - Target Announces Settlement Agreement with MasterCard; Estimated Costs Already Reflected in Previously Reported Results

(http://pressroom.target.com/news?_ga=1.78299806587)

 

SHLD - Poor Returns Weigh on Sears Pension Plan

(http://www.wsj.com/articles/poor-returns-weigh-on-sears-pension-plan-1429130235)

 

PRTY - Party City IPO values U.S. retailer at nearly $2 billion

(http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/15/us-party-cty-holdco-ipo-idUSKBN0N62NG20150415)

 

ELY - Callaway Golf Company Appoints Robert Julian As CFO

(http://ir.callawaygolf.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=68083&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2035480)

 

CAB - Cabela’s Inc. Announces Appointment of James F. Wright to Board of Directors

(http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=177739&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2035449)

 

ANF - Diane Neal to Leave Abercrombie & Fitch Board

(http://wwd.com/business-news/human-resources/diane-neal-abercrombie-fitch-10112179/)

 

HBC - Saks names new head merchant

(http://www.retailingtoday.com/article/saks-names-new-head-merchant)

 

H&M Plots U.S. Expansion

(http://wwd.com/retail-news/mass-off-price/hm-plots-u-s-expansion-10112171/)

 

GES - Georges Marciano Brings Second Suit Against Guess

(http://wwd.com/business-news/legal/georges-marciano-lawsuit-guess-10112195/)

 

Rebecca Minkoff Opens in Hong Kong

(http://wwd.com/retail-news/specialty-stores/rebecca-minkoff-opens-in-hong-kong-10112011/)

 

Fast Retailing- Carine Roitfeld announces collaboration with Uniqlo

(http://www.theguardian.com/fashion/2015/apr/16/carine-roitfeld-announces-collaboration-with-uniqlo)

 


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The Holy Grail

“We have a lot of rookies in the lineup.  More than anybody, I would say.  It’s going to be something new for them. They have to understand that it’s totally different hockey in the playoffs.  Starting with the fans, the intensity of the game, every mistake counts.”

-Jaromir Jagr

 

Last night the pursuit of Lord Stanley’s Cup began in earnest with the first series of games in the NHL Playoffs.  Certainly, the team at Hedgeye is over indexed to the love of the great game of hockey.  But whatever your athletic passion, it’s hard to deny that playoffs are an exciting time of year.

 

For those of you who don’t follow hockey closely, the quote at the outset is from one of the true iron men of the NHL.   At 43 years of age, Jagr was the oldest player to play in the NHL last season.  His first season was 1990 and with the exception of a few seasons in Russia, Jagr has been playing in the NHL ever since.  In fact, he is the only player in the history of the NHL to play in the playoffs as both a teenager and a 40-year old.

 

Being the wily vet that he is, Jagr’s aforementioned quote is spot on.  Whether in sport or business, you need to let the rookies play, but as their GM or boss you also need to realize that their experience is limited and when the intensity picks up during crunch time they need to know that every mistake does matter.   And if they don’t, the experience will teach them that very quickly.

 

Before we get into the macro grind today, I’ll give you my pick to win the holy grail of hockey.   Since the team Keith and I own with some friends, the Arizona Coyotes, is out of the running, I’m going with the New York Rangers over the Chicago Blackhawks with New York winning at home in game 5.

 

Who is your pick to win the Cup?

 

The Holy Grail - a. Jagr

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

It seems that our friends at the IMF weren’t settled into their chairs watching playoffs last night.  The Financial Times is reporting this morning that the IMF is warning that the Fed’s first rate hike could lead to a so-called “Taper Tantrum”.  In effect, the IMF is concerned that volatility in U.S. rates will spike dramatically in conjunction with the first rate hike.

 

In the Chart of the Day we look at the U.S.  10-year yield versus U.S. unemployment going back as far as the data was available.   In stating the obvious, as the chart shows, we are certainly in an unprecedented period of monetary policy.   Will we get a massive spike in interest rate “vol” when the first hike happens?  It’s tough to say without a crystal ball.  But what IS already happening is a spike in opinions on when and how to raise rates.

 

On that front, the esteemed Bernank (aka former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke) weighed in this morning on when and how to guide rates higher.   Not surprisingly part of the Bernank’s plan is to keep the balance sheet larger for longer and also focus on the repo rate and other short-term money market rates.   Some of his views probably have credibility, but whatever happened to central bankers focusing on the data?!

 

Speaking of extremes, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) yesterday reported that crude inventories rose less than expected by a mere 1.3 million barrels on the week to 483 million barrels in total.  According to EIA records dating back to 1920, this is the most inventory the U.S. has had on hand since the 1930s (that was back when the NHL only had six teams for crying out loud!).

 

In conjunction with that, a Federal Reserve index showed that crude production rose 1.3% in March.  This increase took it to the highest level since 1973, which was before I was born and I’m no spring chicken.   If that isn’t enough, Iraq crude exports hit a record of 3.0 million barrels in March and the Saudi’s did exactly what they said they would do and took production up to 10.3 million barrels per day.

 

Earlier in the week we used a quote from Templeton about waiting to buy when there is blood in the street.  Certainly there is truth to that if we look at investing history.  When it comes to getting long of oil, due to the lack of storage, we may literally get a chance to buy it when it is in the streets!

 

In Europe, Greek’s clock is running down.  Yesterday, it was leaked that the Greeks approached the IMF about a rescheduling of repayments and were told categorically that no rescheduling of debt is possible.    As a result, yields on 2-year Greek notes spiked by more than 180 basis points to 25.7% and 10-year yields were up 100 basis points to 12.65%.  If the IMF wants interest rate volatility, they got it.

 

As for Greek catalysts, there are a couple to focus on:

  • The Eurogroup meeting next week on April 24th; and
  • The next payment to the IMF due on May 12th of 747 million euro.

Overtime for the Greek debt market is here! Let’s hope they have a good goaltender in PM Alexis Tsipras.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 1.86-1.96%

SPX 2083-2117
VIX 12.34-15.49
USD 98.01-100.24
EUR/USD 1.04-1.08
Oil (WTI) 48.19-56.69


Keep your head up and stick on the ice,

 

Daryl G. Jones

Director of Research

 

The Holy Grail - 04.16.15 chart


Lower For Longer

This note was originally published at 8am on April 02, 2015 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“I find my life is a lot easier the lower I keep everyone’s expectations.”

-Bill Watterson

 

For those of you who aren’t into Hedgeye-style Fed and Global #Deflation cartoons, may I suggest some ole school Calvin & Hobbes? Bill Watterson syndicated that uniquely American comic strip during some of the best of US economic times, then stopped.

 

Lower For Longer - 11

 

“Watterson stopped drawing Calvin and Hobbes at the end of 1995 with a short statement to newspaper editors and his readers that he felt he had achieved all he could in the medium.” (Wikipedia)

 

What if US bond yields break to all-time lows, and I just stop? This is not the 1990s. As you can see in our Chart of The Day, the world is getting older at its fastest rate. As Global #GrowthSlowing gets priced into bond yields, your market life gets easier accepting that.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

As we roll into our Q2 Global Macro Themes call (April 7th) and I look back on the most thought provoking slides of our Q1 deck, this chart we are showing you again today is a critical one to consider from a long-term global demographic perspective.

 

What we are showing you here is the world’s 65+ year-olds as a percentage of 25-54 year-olds, in rate of change terms. And the investment implications associated with this demographic reality are quite simple:

 

The number of aging baby boomers who are inclined to allocate retirement assets to Fixed Income instead of Alibaba (BABA) or Go Daddy (GDDY) stock is accelerating! So I’ll reiterate our uber bullish call on the Long Bond (TLT) again this morning.

 

Lower-rates-for-longer? Yep. Here’s what drove the outperformance of bonds vs. US stocks (again) yesterday:

 

  1. In rate of change terms, the ADP employment report slowed (again), sequentially in March
  2. USA’s ISM slowed to 51.5 in March vs. 52.9 in February
  3. The “employment” component of the ISM slowed to 50.0 MAR vs. 51.4 FEB

 

In other words, anything that walks or quacks like a slowing US jobs picture is not a duck. To the bond market, it’s a dove. And, my newest bff Janet, is the Mother of All Doves!

 

In terms of risk management levels for the US 10yr Bond Yield:

 

  1. The immediate-term TRADE range is now 1.82-1.93%
  2. Long-term TAIL risk resistance remains up at 2.39%
  3. And there’s no intermediate-term TREND support to the all-time closing lows

 

Since all-time remains a very long time, we’re thinking that Americans who are predisposed to get themselves levered up with cheap credit are going to absolutely love the idea of a 3% 30yr mortgage rate.

 

Put another way, the more right we are on Global #Deflation and slower-for-longer Global GDP growth rates, the more bullish we’ll probably get on Housing (ITB) as all of the “folks” who are paying peak US rents, will see the affordability equation on buying improve.

Lower For Longer - Deflation cartoon 02.24.2015

Getting back to why the Tizzle (TLT) shot up to +5.1% YTD yesterday (+1.3% on the day vs. SP500 -0.4% to 0.0% for 2015), what could Mr. Macro Market possibly be front-running now? How about the 1st slowing NFP (non-farm payroll) number in the last 7 months?

 

My man Hatzius @Goldman wrote a nice piece of rate of change research on this NFP matter last week that our most recent Employment Cycle conference call pointed to in the week prior to that – the probability of payroll gains slowing, is rising.

 

And, at the end of the day, with:

 

A)     #StrongDollar +

B)      Global #Deflation

 

Already messing with Janet’s former June rate hike expectations… what do you think she is going to do next if C) is a deteriorating series of US employment data?

 

Ah, lower-for-longer, eh! I find my life easier still thinking this way.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now (with intermediate-term TREND views in brackets):

 

UST 10yr Yield 1.82-1.93% (bearish)
SPX 2037-2076 (neutral)

RUT 1239-1276 (bullish)
Nikkei 19002-19484 (bullish)

VIX 13.13-16.67 (bullish)

USD 96.93-99.11 (bullish)
EUR/USD 1.06-1.10 (bearish)
YEN 118.71-120.95 (bearish)
Oil (WTI) 45.81-50.99 (bearish)
Gold 1166-1208 (bearish)

 

Best of luck out there today and enjoy your long weekend,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Lower For Longer - 04.02.15 chart


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.30%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%
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