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Takeaway: We remain negative on Macau as grind mass could be the next pressure point. Lowering our April forecast


Another weak week in Macau – reducing April GGR forecast.  April on track to represent the 11th straight month of deteriorating sequential gaming volumes, seasonally adjusted.

No change to our negative investment thesis. Street GGR forecasts have come down and are not far from ours (HE estimate at -25% for 2015). However, we fear the Street is underestimating the grind Mass revenue deterioration which will adversely impact margins. Moreover, the Mass reinvestment rate may be ticking up, another pressure point on margins. Consensus EBITDA estimates remain well above Hedgeye.

Please click on the link to see our detailed note: