EVENT: Best Ideas Update Call (YELP, P, BABA) + TWTR

Takeaway: Join us for our call Thursday, April 16th at 1:00pm EDT as we run through our Best Ideas (YELP, P, BABA) and touch upon TWTR

We will be hosting a call reviewing the major themes and incremental developments to our Best Idea Short theses on YELP, P, & BABA.  The emphasis of this call will be to highlight our view over various durations, as well as the upcoming catalyst calendar; identifying the major risks and catalysts to each position over the near-to-intermediate term.  In addition, we will touch upon our Short thesis on TWTR, addressing the same topics


Join us for our call Thursday, April 16th at 1:00pm EDT.  



  • Review of the major themes and incremental developments to each our Best Ideas Shorts (YELP, P, & BABA)
  • Highlighting our view over various durations as well as the upcoming catalyst calendar: Risks & Catalysts to each position over the NTM
  • We will also discuss our Short thesis on TWTR, covering the same topics above.


Hesham Shaaban, CFA



Instant Insight: We Remain Long Term Bulls On Germany

Editor's Note: This is an excerpt from Hedgeye research written earlier this morning. Click here for more information on how you can become a subscriber.


Instant Insight: We Remain Long Term Bulls On Germany - zen44


Germany is one equity market we want to highlight this morning.


The DAX continues to be in a bullish formation and we remain long term bulls. Exports account for 47% of German GDP, so Mario Draghi’s weak EUR policy is obviously a huge TAILWIND for Germany. In addition, their fundamentals are outperforming peers and are showing positive lift (business & economic confidence; IP, factory orders, etc).


Even as the DAX has had a major run over the past six months, over the past five years, it has dramatically underperformed its U.S. counterparts.  On a related note, tomorrow at 11am, our European Analyst Matt Hedrick will be presenting a 50-page deck that outlines that continued case to be long of German equities.


Ping for access.

Cartoon of the Day: Super Dollar!

Cartoon of the Day: Super Dollar! - currency cartoon 04.13.2015

The U.S. Dollar trades near decade-plus highs versus the Euro.

Early Look

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VIDEO | Macro Minute: Why We're Still Long German Equities


In this Macro Minute, Director of Research Daryl Jones highlights the key points of Hedgeye's bullish thesis on German stocks ahead of our institutional conference call tomorrow at 11:00AM ET (contact for access).

VIDEO | Hedgeye's Dale Reveals Key Points from Chinese Trade Data


In this brief excerpt from this morning's Macro Show, Hedgeye Macro Analyst Darius Dale offers his most important takeaways from the latest Chinese trade data, whether to expect more action from central planners, and why seasonality is a factor for these numbers.

Retail Callouts (4/13): Golf -- Why It's Broken

Takeaway: Yeah, there's hype around the Masters, Spieth and UA. But we need to find another 5mm golfers (25%) to get to pre Tiger-gate levels.


While everyone basks in Jordan Spieth’s lights-out victory this weekend in Atlanta, let’s keep one thing in perspective about the Golf Industry. We’re seeing a massive bifurcation in participation, and it’s not particularly healthy. Simply put, a significantly smaller number of golfers are playing a far greater number of rounds. The number of golfers in the US has declined by 5mm, or 16%, in the past six years. On the flip side, the number of rounds per player is up 12% to 19 rounds per year over that same period.


Two factors explain away 80% of this drop. One is the ’07-’09 recession, which took the marginal golfer out of the game (‘core’ golfers will golf in any economy, weather, zombie apocalypse, or whatever…). Then just as the US emerged from a crippling recession (6/09), Tiger Woods fell from grace (11/09), thereby removing the biggest positive mass-marketing force the game has ever seen.   


Fortunately, what we call ‘core’ golfers (plays at least 8 times a year) accounts for about 56% of golfers, and 85% of spending. For the most part, this is a healthy demographic. But someone who plays 20, 30, or even 50 rounds per year almost certainly does not go to a Golf Galaxy or a Dick’s. They likely belong to a Club, and buy gear at the Club’s pro shop.


It’s the ‘non-core’ golfer (less than 8x per year) who uses mass channels, and that group has been decimated – accounting for almost all the decline in players over the past six years. Before the Recession/Tiger Debacle, there were 13.2mm ‘non-core’ golfers. Now there’s closer to 10mm. That’s roughly a 25% decline in a customer base for the mass golf retailers.   


Could they come back? Of course. But we’re going to need a lot more than Tiger passing the torch to Rory McIlroy, or UA’s Spieth crushing the field at the Masters.


Retail Callouts (4/13): Golf -- Why It's Broken - 4 13 chart2

Retail Callouts (4/13): Golf -- Why It's Broken - 4 13 chart3



UA - Jordan Spieth is Masters Champ, Big Win for UA


Takeaway:  Spieth and Under Armour had a good week last week.  With Spieth leading the masters after every round and ultimately winning by 4 shots, the UA logo, which is seen on every piece of Spieth's clothing, spent many hours front and center on national TV. 

In January, Under Armour presciently signed a new 10 year contract with Spieth and just 3 months later he wins the season's first major championship in record fashion. Spieth's contract likely had built in performance incentives which means UA will have to pay him extra after his victory, but after showcasing the brand at the top level Kevin Plank will be happy to write him the check.

Retail Callouts (4/13): Golf -- Why It's Broken - 4 13 chart1







Retailers Are Under Fire for Work Schedules



TGT - Target Canada closing, ending 2-year foray



AMZN - drops free shipping for remote customers



AMZN - Amazon Acquired Data Migration Startup Amiato



China Restricts Hong Kong Visits



Sprint RadioShack launches in 1,435 stores






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