April 7, 2015

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Call Invite | Best Idea: Long ZOES

Takeaway: We're hosting a 30 minute call on Wednesday, April 8 at 1:00pm EST. Dial-in details and associated materials to follow.

Upside to $68 per share versus downside to $25 per share over the next three years.


Standing Out From the Crowd

After coming down hard on NDLS, CHUY, PBPB, DFRG and SHAK over the past year, it’s probably apparent that we have a strong bias against “high growth” restaurant companies that have recently come public.  Rest assured this bias has not detracted from our research process.  In fact, this prior work in the small cap restaurant field has allowed us to identify a company that we believe is distinctly different from the rest – which, if you’re familiar with our work, can only be construed as a good thing. 


We like ZOES on the long side for many reasons, including its:

  • Superior brand positioning
  • Management philosophy and execution
  • Unit opening geographic profile
  • Early-stage average unit volumes and returns


There is little competition in the Mediterranean category which directly appeals to the health conscious millennial crowd and has the potential to become America’s next big cuisine.  Due in large part to a best-in-class management team and operating philosophy, we believe ZOES will be able to grow with minimal roadblocks.


Please join us for 30 minutes on Wednesday as we walk through the intricacies of our call in a detailed Black Book.


Call Invite | Best Idea: Long ZOES - 11111

Real Conversations: Stephen Roach on Global Imbalances, Risks and How It All Ends


Stephen Roach, Yale University professor and former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, sits down with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough to discuss a number of important subjects in this extensive interview.

investing ideas

Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

Cartoon of the Day: Lousy T-Shirt

Cartoon of the Day: Lousy T-Shirt - TLT cartoon 04.06.2015

We added TLT to Real-Time Alerts on 4/1/14. It is up +20% since then versus 10% for the S&P 500. We remain long the Long Bond.

[230 Words]: Why Keith McCullough Doesn’t Mince Words with One-Man-Know-It-All-Bands

The exchange below is from an interview Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough did back in July 2014. It offers a quick glimpse into why McCullough doesn’t pull punches when it comes to calling out unaccountable market pundits, commentators, etc.

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Q: You have been very vocal about your feelings towards holding stock market commentators accountable for their public recommendations or analysis of stocks. What made you begin speaking up about this?

KM: It all gets back to the founding principles of Hedgeye – Transparency, Accountability, and Trust. If we don’t #timestamp every call we make, how on earth can serious investors evaluate whether or not they should pay for our services? There is an “us vs. them” overtone to this culture war we are waging on Twitter with some of Old Wall’s newsier pundits, because the differences between what we do and what they do are significant.


[230 Words]: Why Keith McCullough Doesn’t Mince Words with One-Man-Know-It-All-Bands - 445


We spend most of our day producing proprietary research views so that we can debate the sharpest Institutional Investors in the world on our Best Ideas. We are in their offices and in their inboxes and on their phones.


We aren’t trying to be an inch deep and a mile wide across 5,000 securities in hopes of generating advertising revenues. We aren’t trying to spin everything positive for either our own book or banking revenues either.


I probably come off as a threat to the one-man know-it-all-bands out there because I should. I have a big team that’s proving itself at the highest level, each and every market day. In many ways we are the other team, so I don’t expect those we are competing with to support us. We want to stand on the front lines for both individuals and institutions so that the opacity of Old Wall investment recommendations won’t crush their returns again.


Click here for more information on why we actually are different here at Hedgeye and how you can become a subscriber.


The Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure team will host a conference call this Friday (April 10) at 11AM to discuss the latest Macau data and our overall thoughts on the market and the stocks.  Relevant tickers include:  LVS, WYNN, MGM, MPEL, 0027.HK, 1128.HK, 1928.HK, 2282.HK, 6883.HK, and 0880.HK.


Discussion Points:

  • The company and market details behind March’s 39% GGR decline
  • Summary of our late March Macau trip
  • The true Mass/VIP split is masked by smoking ban related reclassifications of tables – we’ll get you the right numbers
  • In terms of YoY declines, the worst could be behind us – but does that mean sequential trends are improving?
  • Revised 2015 monthly market projections
  • Hedgeye company EBITDA estimates vs the Street (LVS, WYNN, MGM, MPEL, and Galaxy Entertainment) – Still below the Street?
  • Research Topic: Why we’re a little more positive on Direct VIP


Please contact  for dial-in information.

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.52%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.68%