Real Conversations: Stephen Roach on Global Imbalances, Risks and How It All Ends


Stephen Roach, Yale University professor and former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, sits down with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough to discuss a number of important subjects in this extensive interview.

Cartoon of the Day: Lousy T-Shirt

Cartoon of the Day: Lousy T-Shirt - TLT cartoon 04.06.2015

We added TLT to Real-Time Alerts on 4/1/14. It is up +20% since then versus 10% for the S&P 500. We remain long the Long Bond.

[230 Words]: Why Keith McCullough Doesn’t Mince Words with One-Man-Know-It-All-Bands

The exchange below is from an interview Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough did back in July 2014. It offers a quick glimpse into why McCullough doesn’t pull punches when it comes to calling out unaccountable market pundits, commentators, etc.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *

Q: You have been very vocal about your feelings towards holding stock market commentators accountable for their public recommendations or analysis of stocks. What made you begin speaking up about this?

KM: It all gets back to the founding principles of Hedgeye – Transparency, Accountability, and Trust. If we don’t #timestamp every call we make, how on earth can serious investors evaluate whether or not they should pay for our services? There is an “us vs. them” overtone to this culture war we are waging on Twitter with some of Old Wall’s newsier pundits, because the differences between what we do and what they do are significant.


[230 Words]: Why Keith McCullough Doesn’t Mince Words with One-Man-Know-It-All-Bands - 445


We spend most of our day producing proprietary research views so that we can debate the sharpest Institutional Investors in the world on our Best Ideas. We are in their offices and in their inboxes and on their phones.


We aren’t trying to be an inch deep and a mile wide across 5,000 securities in hopes of generating advertising revenues. We aren’t trying to spin everything positive for either our own book or banking revenues either.


I probably come off as a threat to the one-man know-it-all-bands out there because I should. I have a big team that’s proving itself at the highest level, each and every market day. In many ways we are the other team, so I don’t expect those we are competing with to support us. We want to stand on the front lines for both individuals and institutions so that the opacity of Old Wall investment recommendations won’t crush their returns again.


Click here for more information on why we actually are different here at Hedgeye and how you can become a subscriber.

Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.


The Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging, and Leisure team will host a conference call this Friday (April 10) at 11AM to discuss the latest Macau data and our overall thoughts on the market and the stocks.  Relevant tickers include:  LVS, WYNN, MGM, MPEL, 0027.HK, 1128.HK, 1928.HK, 2282.HK, 6883.HK, and 0880.HK.


Discussion Points:

  • The company and market details behind March’s 39% GGR decline
  • Summary of our late March Macau trip
  • The true Mass/VIP split is masked by smoking ban related reclassifications of tables – we’ll get you the right numbers
  • In terms of YoY declines, the worst could be behind us – but does that mean sequential trends are improving?
  • Revised 2015 monthly market projections
  • Hedgeye company EBITDA estimates vs the Street (LVS, WYNN, MGM, MPEL, and Galaxy Entertainment) – Still below the Street?
  • Research Topic: Why we’re a little more positive on Direct VIP


Please contact  for dial-in information.

The Only Big Macro Call We’re Staying With Right Now


In this brief excerpt from today’s morning macro call, Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale reviews the latest key developments in global macro and reveals the only big macro call Hedgeye is staying with right now.

European Banking Monitor: Sharp Pullback in Greek Financials Swaps

Takeaway: Greek Financials Swaps tighten ~15% on bailout negotiations.

Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email 




European Financial CDS - Swaps were mostly unchanged in Europe last week while Greek institutions finally tightened in unison given a positive development in bailout negotiations; Greece delivered a more detailed plan for its bailout to the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday.


European Banking Monitor: Sharp Pullback in Greek Financials Swaps - chart1 financials CDS


Sovereign CDS – Sovereign swaps mostly tightened over last week on news of Greece delivering a more detailed bailout plan to the IMF.  Spanish sovereign swaps tightened the most, by -8 bps to 86, while Irish sovereign swaps widened nominally (+1 bp to 49).


European Banking Monitor: Sharp Pullback in Greek Financials Swaps - chart2 sovereign CDS


European Banking Monitor: Sharp Pullback in Greek Financials Swaps - chart3 sovereign CDS


European Banking Monitor: Sharp Pullback in Greek Financials Swaps - chart4 sovereign CDS


Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread was unchanged at 11 bps.


European Banking Monitor: Sharp Pullback in Greek Financials Swaps - chart5 euribor OIS Spread


Matthew Hedrick



Ben Ryan


Attention Students...

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