April 1, 2015

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Takeaway: No smoking gun but big move in the stock brings valuation closer to peer group.

We are removing RHP from the Hedgeye Best Ideas list.  We still like RHP’s fundamental positioning given the long demand tail endemic in the group segment.  However, the strong run in the stock – up 29% since we put RHP on Best Ideas on 09/18/14 versus +9% for the peer group – has narrowed the valuation disparity to the hotel REIT sector.  RHP’s EV/EBITDA discount has narrowed from 2.5 turns to approximately 1 turn, which we feel is appropriate given its small size and narrow focus.  

Cartoon of the Day: The Human Torch!

Cartoon of the Day: The Human Torch! - Draghi cartoon 03.31.2015


"The euro is down -1% to $1.07 on neither inflation nor employment data doing anything month-over-month (EUR/USD down because markets expect Draghi to deliver more cowbell in attempts to create inflation, which looks impossible right now)," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote this morning

Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

REPLAY: Q&A With Hedgeye Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin | $HCA $ZMH $ATHN $HOLX

Hedgeye's Healthcare Sector Head Tom Tobin and Analyst Andrew Freedman discussed what they will be looking for in this weeks Jobs Report as it relates to their favorite names in Healthcare. Tom and Andrew also hit on recent events within the sector and answered questions from viewers live.

McCullough: My Latest S&P 500 Levels (and a Cautionary Note on Illegally Marking Up Your Book)

In this brief excerpt from today’s edition of The Macro Show (click here for full replay), Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough reviews his latest S&P 500 levels and discusses the illegal practice of managers marking up their books into month’s end.


McCullough: The 5 Best Ways to Be Positioned Right Now

Editor’s Note: Below is an email Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough sent to Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo and her show’s producers last Friday morning before his appearance on “Opening Bell.” Incidentally, one of our biggest recent calls, long Housing (ITB), is up almost 5% versus the S&P 500 since we added it to Investing Ideas on March 4th. Images added.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *

This morning it’s back to business with what I think is the best way to be positioned right now:

Long US Dollars (UUP)

McCullough: The 5 Best Ways to Be Positioned Right Now - Dollar cartoon 03.09.2015

Long long-term Treasuries (TLT)

McCullough: The 5 Best Ways to Be Positioned Right Now - 3  yield Godot 07.27.2014

Long US Housing (ITB)

McCullough: The 5 Best Ways to Be Positioned Right Now - House rocket

Long US Consumption and Healthcare stocks (XLY and XLV)

McCullough: The 5 Best Ways to Be Positioned Right Now - Dollar cartoon 03.11.2015

Short Commodities and their related stocks/bonds (OIL and XOP)

McCullough: The 5 Best Ways to Be Positioned Right Now - Oil cartoon 12.09.2014


Ultimately this is the long and short of being positioned for our top Global Macro Theme in Q1 of 2015, Global #Deflation (yes, there are plenty of ways to be uber LONG of the bearish theme – because it’s only bearish for those who are long inflation expectations).


Lots to talk about including another slow GDP print. Looking forward to being with you,



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

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