- The continued lower trend in bet minimums for grind mass is troubling. We fear revenues for this very profitable segment could meaningfully disappoint relative to Street expectations.
- Premium mass minimum bets have stopped falling – a partial offset to the very concerting trend in the higher margin grind mass segment
- Minimum bet size is a form of pricing and is indicative of current and expected demand. Since neither the companies or the Macau government data breaks down mass revenue segments, the table bet minimum data depicted below is very useful.
- If the table minimum bet data is indicative of grind mass revenue trends, LVS estimates could be the most at risk and the stock could present the most near-term downside. LVS is the undisputed leader in the grind mass segment.
Takeaway: The good news: premium mass table minimum bets seem to have stabilized. The bad news: grind mass minimum bet size continues to drop
Bond Rally Over? (David Tepper) Owning $TLT Like Picking Up Nickels In Front of Steamroller? (Doug Kass) Wrong
CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE.
Virtually all of our firm's many loyal customers and supporters (as well as detractors) around the world know that Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and our macro team have been arguably the most vocal proponent of being long the long bond via TLT on Wall Street.
It's worked out pretty well for us.
Following the release of the Fed's policy statement today, the 10-year yield fell all the way down to 1.92% (from 2.05% before the announcement.)
As you can see in the chart above, it's been a bumpy, but very profitable ride for us.
It's also timestamped. (See below current Real-Time Alerts signal from 4/1/14)
Click to enlarge.
An over 21% return? Not too shabby. Especially when compared to the S&P 500.
It's also important to mention that this TLT position hasn't been without some degree of controversy. It's received more than its fair share of criticism from basement dwellers trolling on Twitter, as well as some more well-known market pundits.
(See tweet below from said gentleman behind computer screen in Boca Raton ... who, incidentally, was attempting to make fun of our position in this particular tweet, despite the fact the he currently "blocks" us. It hasn't worked out so well for him.)
We would be remiss not to mention the grand poobah pronouncement by David Tepper heralded on Bloomberg by Stephanie Ruhle back in September that:
"It's the beginning of the end of the bond market rally. We are done."
Ehh, not so much.
Heck... we even ran a poll on it.
For the record, we remain long TLT.
***In closing, here's a look back at a handful of our inimitable cartoonist Bob Rich's cartoons. We thank you for continued confidence in us. Enjoy!
August 29, 2014
July 27, 2014
October 7, 2014
December 12, 2014
January 6, 2015
January 26, 2015
Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough (colorfully) responds immediately following the release of the FOMC policy statement with thoughts on how to be positioned.
CLICK HERE for a replay of Keith's real-time reactions to the FOMC statement
real edge in real-time
This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.
In this brief excerpt from today’s Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discusses the growing risks facing investors ahead of the FOMC policy statement at 2PM ET.
Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares the top three things in his macro notebook this morning.
Risk Managed Long Term Investing for Pros
Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.