Takeaway: The good news: premium mass table minimum bets seem to have stabilized. The bad news: grind mass minimum bet size continues to drop

  • The continued lower trend in bet minimums for grind mass is troubling. We fear revenues for this very profitable segment could meaningfully disappoint relative to Street expectations.
  • Premium mass minimum bets have stopped falling – a partial offset to the very concerting trend in the higher margin grind mass segment
  • Minimum bet size is a form of pricing and is indicative of current and expected demand. Since neither the companies or the Macau government data breaks down mass revenue segments, the table bet minimum data depicted below is very useful.
  • If the table minimum bet data is indicative of grind mass revenue trends, LVS estimates could be the most at risk and the stock could present the most near-term downside.  LVS is the undisputed leader in the grind mass segment.


$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory

Bond Rally Over? (David Tepper) Owning $TLT Like Picking Up Nickels In Front of Steamroller? (Doug Kass) Wrong



$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - z tlt


Virtually all of our firm's many loyal customers and supporters (as well as detractors) around the world know that Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and our macro team have been arguably the most vocal proponent of being long the long bond via TLT on Wall Street.


It's worked out pretty well for us.


Following the release of the Fed's policy statement today, the 10-year yield fell all the way down to 1.92% (from 2.05% before the announcement.)


As you can see in the chart above, it's been a bumpy, but very profitable ride for us.


It's also timestamped. (See below current Real-Time Alerts signal from 4/1/14)

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - z rta ex

Click to enlarge. 


An over 21% return? Not too shabby. Especially when compared to the S&P 500.


$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - Z TLT VS SPY


It's also important to mention that this TLT position hasn't been without some degree of controversy. It's received more than its fair share of criticism from basement dwellers trolling on Twitter, as well as some more well-known market pundits.


(See tweet below from said gentleman behind computer screen in Boca Raton ... who, incidentally, was attempting to make fun of our position in this particular tweet, despite the fact the he currently "blocks" us. It hasn't worked out so well for him.)

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - z kass


We would be remiss not to mention the grand poobah pronouncement by David Tepper heralded on Bloomberg by Stephanie Ruhle back in September that: 


"It's the beginning of the end of the bond market rally. We are done."


Ehh, not so much.


Heck... we even ran a poll on it.


$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - z1

For the record, we remain long TLT.


***In closing, here's a look back at a handful of our inimitable cartoonist Bob Rich's cartoons. We thank you for continued confidence in us. Enjoy!


August 29, 2014

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - Fightin  Words 08.29.2014


July 27, 2014

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - 3  yield Godot 07.27.2014


October 7, 2014

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - TLT cartoon 10.07.2014


December 12, 2014

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - 1  cartoon 12.12.2014


January 6, 2015

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - 10yr yield cartoon FIX 01.06.2015


January 26, 2015

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - TLT cartoon 01.26.2015




INSTANT REPLAY (1 Min Fed Video) | McCullough: You Buy Everything!


Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough (colorfully) responds immediately following the release of the FOMC policy statement with thoughts on how to be positioned.  


CLICK HERE for a replay of Keith's real-time reactions to the FOMC statement

Attention Students...

Get The Macro Show and the Early Look now for only $29.95/month – a savings of 57% – with the Hedgeye Student Discount! In addition to those daily macro insights, you'll receive exclusive content tailor-made to augment what you learn in the classroom. Must be a current college or university student to qualify.


CHART OF THE DAY: COO-ish - Fed cartoon 03.18.2015NEW

“Just because we removed the word patient from the statement doesn’t mean we are going to be impatient,” Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a press conference Wednesday in Washington.



Behold Rising Volatility, Entropy and the Waterfall of Risk Ahead of Fed’s Decision


In this brief excerpt from today’s Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discusses the growing risks facing investors ahead of the FOMC policy statement at 2PM ET.

Keith's Macro Notebook 3/18: Oil | VIX | Russell 2000


Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares the top three things in his macro notebook this morning.