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$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory

Bond Rally Over? (David Tepper) Owning $TLT Like Picking Up Nickels In Front of Steamroller? (Doug Kass) Wrong

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE.

 

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - z tlt

 

Virtually all of our firm's many loyal customers and supporters (as well as detractors) around the world know that Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough and our macro team have been arguably the most vocal proponent of being long the long bond via TLT on Wall Street.

 

It's worked out pretty well for us.

 

Following the release of the Fed's policy statement today, the 10-year yield fell all the way down to 1.92% (from 2.05% before the announcement.)

 

As you can see in the chart above, it's been a bumpy, but very profitable ride for us.

 

It's also timestamped. (See below current Real-Time Alerts signal from 4/1/14)

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - z rta ex

Click to enlarge. 

 

An over 21% return? Not too shabby. Especially when compared to the S&P 500.

 

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - Z TLT VS SPY

 

It's also important to mention that this TLT position hasn't been without some degree of controversy. It's received more than its fair share of criticism from basement dwellers trolling on Twitter, as well as some more well-known market pundits.

 

(See tweet below from said gentleman behind computer screen in Boca Raton ... who, incidentally, was attempting to make fun of our position in this particular tweet, despite the fact the he currently "blocks" us. It hasn't worked out so well for him.)

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - z kass

 

We would be remiss not to mention the grand poobah pronouncement by David Tepper heralded on Bloomberg by Stephanie Ruhle back in September that: 

 

"It's the beginning of the end of the bond market rally. We are done."

 

Ehh, not so much.

 

Heck... we even ran a poll on it.

 

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - z1

For the record, we remain long TLT.

 

***In closing, here's a look back at a handful of our inimitable cartoonist Bob Rich's cartoons. We thank you for continued confidence in us. Enjoy!

 

August 29, 2014

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - Fightin  Words 08.29.2014

 

July 27, 2014

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - 3  yield Godot 07.27.2014

 

October 7, 2014

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - TLT cartoon 10.07.2014

 

December 12, 2014

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - 1  cartoon 12.12.2014

 

January 6, 2015

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - 10yr yield cartoon FIX 01.06.2015

 

January 26, 2015

$TLT And The Sweet Taste Of Victory - TLT cartoon 01.26.2015


 

 

 


INSTANT REPLAY (1 Min Fed Video) | McCullough: You Buy Everything!

 

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough (colorfully) responds immediately following the release of the FOMC policy statement with thoughts on how to be positioned.  

 

CLICK HERE for a replay of Keith's real-time reactions to the FOMC statement


CHART OF THE DAY: COO-ish

CHART OF THE DAY: COO-ish - Fed cartoon 03.18.2015NEW

“Just because we removed the word patient from the statement doesn’t mean we are going to be impatient,” Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in a press conference Wednesday in Washington.

 

(sigh)


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Behold Rising Volatility, Entropy and the Waterfall of Risk Ahead of Fed’s Decision

 

In this brief excerpt from today’s Macro Show, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough discusses the growing risks facing investors ahead of the FOMC policy statement at 2PM ET.


Keith's Macro Notebook 3/18: Oil | VIX | Russell 2000

 

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares the top three things in his macro notebook this morning.


PENN: Removing Penn National Gaming from Investing Ideas

Takeaway: We are removing PENN from Investing Ideas.

Please note that we are removing Penn National Gaming (PENN) from Investing Ideas today. PENN was added on 2/24/15 and is up 1.4% versus a 2.2% decline in the S&P 500.

 

According to Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure Sector Head Todd Jordan: 

 

"We continue to like PENN over the intermediate and long term but negative same store revs in March could pressure regional gaming stocks."

 

In addition: 

  • We’re forecasting a return to negative same store revenue in the regional gaming markets following 3 straight months of gains.  A monthly downturn would counter the recent regional gaming narrative and could hurt sentiment and the stocks: BYD, PENN, PNK, and GLPI
  • We are removing PENN even though the company’s return to growth in beginning in 2H 2015 should drive a higher stock price.  Our concern rests with the potential reversal in sentiment as March gaming revenues are released by the states in early April.
  • Early weekly revenue read from a few markets is mixed as a much weaker Pennsylvania was offset by a stronger Missouri. 

PENN: Removing Penn National Gaming from Investing Ideas - zj

 


investing ideas

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Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough handpicks the “best of the best” long and short ideas delivered to him by our team of over 30 research analysts across myriad sectors.

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