CLIENT TALKING POINTS
ASIA
Big stimuli (or rumors of moarrr) and Japanese/Chinese stocks love it! The Nikkei and Shanghai Composite up another +1% and +1.6% overnight to +11.4% and +8.3%, respectively. The KOSPI is trying to breakout now too, +2.1% after being bearish for most of 2014.
USD
Down Day for USD yesterday had everything from Biotech (IBB) to Yield Chasers (Utilities and REITS) roaring to the upside – this is what Wall St. is begging for from Janet Yellen, lower USD and lower rates, for longer – we’ll see if she delivers #patience.
OIL
Oil doesn’t buy into the idea that USD will have more than 1 down-day, falling another -1.2% this morning to $43.34 with our refreshed risk range signaling lower-highs and lower-lows at $43.05-47.36; some of our best E&P MLP short ideas crushed yesterday.
TOP LONG IDEAS
ITB
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) is a great way to play our long housing call, U.S. #HousingAccelerating remains 1 of the Top 3 Global Macro Themes in the Hedgeye Institutional Themes deck right now. Not only did U.S. home prices accelerate (in rate of change terms) in the Core Logic data this week to +5.7%, but the supply/demand data has been improving throughout the last 3 months.
PENN
Penn National Gaming is the best way to play improving domestic regional gaming trends due to its superior operational management and unit growth opportunities. Catalysts include positive estimate revisions, the opening of the first Massachusetts casino in June, and industry leading earnings growth in 2015 and 2016.
TLT
Low-volatility Long Bonds (TLT) have plenty of room to run. Late-Cycle Economic Indicators are still deteriorating on a TRENDING Basis (Manufacturing, CapEX, inflation) while consumption driven numbers have improved. Inflation readings for January are #SLOWING. We saw deceleration in CPI year-over-year at +0.8% vs. +1.3% prior and month-over-month at -0.4% vs. -0.3% prior. Growth is still #SLOWING with Real GDP growth decelerating at -20 basis points to +2.5% year-over-year for Q4 2014.The GDP deflator decelerated -40 basis points to +1.2% year-over-year.
Asset Allocation
| CASH | 42% | US EQUITIES | 14% | |
| INTL EQUITIES | 12% | COMMODITIES | 0% | |
| FIXED INCOME | 19% | INTL CURRENCIES | 13% |
THREE FOR THE ROAD
TWEET OF THE DAY
TODAY AT 8;30AM ET Watch The #MacroShow, Live w/ @KeithMcCullough SPECIAL GUEST: @HedgeyeENERGY (Kevin Kaiser) https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/42973-watch-the-macro-show-live-with-keith-mccullough-at-8-30am-et
@Hedgeye
QUOTE OF THE DAY
The power of imagination makes us infinite.
-John Muir
STAT OF THE DAY
1 in 4 people in Japan are above the age of 65.
