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Hairy Little Forecasters

This note was originally published at 8am on March 02, 2015 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds.”

-Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

I think we all know what little minds are. If you don’t know what their foolish consistencies look like, come watch 5-7yr olds play Mite Hockey. They’ll go offside again, and again, and again – until they finally learn that the referee’s whistle stops them from scoring.

 

Do you know what a hobgoblin is? Per Wikipedia: “Hobgoblins seem to be small, hairy little men who—like their close relative, brownies - are often found within human dwellings, doing odd jobs around the house while the family is lost in sleep.”

 

That, to me, seems like a reasonable definition of what people do at the Fed. While the rest of the world is dealing with the realities of economic gravity, these little-known people continue to rummage through data, forecasting both inflation and GDP growth inaccurately.

Hairy Little Forecasters - GDP cartoon 01.30.2015

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Did you know what 2014 US GDP growth was? Per Q4 #GrowthSlowing data that was reported on Friday, US GDP growth slowed to +2.4% year-over-year in 2014, well off what seems like a perpetual consensus growth expectation of +3-4%.

 

As you know, long-term bond yields have been tracking the rate of change in year-over-year US growth. When US growth finally surprised to the upside (Q413) at +3.1% year-over-year, the 10yr UST Yield climbed over 3%.

 

With US GDP falling closer to 2%, the 10yr Yield fell that way too. If you know people who still foolishly look at the q/q SAAR GDP number (instead of y/y), send me their contact info and I’ll send them a pair of tickets to  Shakespeare’s A Midsummer Night’s Dream.

 

The best known hobgoblin has a hockey name (Puck, from Shakespeare’s aforementioned classic). I kind of like that inasmuch as I enjoyed last week’s macro moves (I was in dire need of a good week!):

 

  1. #StrongDollar – US Dollar Index ramped +1.1% back to its JAN highs at +5.6% YTD
  2. Burning Euros – EUR/USD down another -1.5% on the wk to YTD lows of -7.1%
  3. Commodity #Deflation – CRB Index -0.4% wk-over-wk to -2.6% YTD
  4. Oil #Deflation – WTI down another -2.1% last wk to -8.3% YTD
  5. Lower Rates – UST 10yr Yield -12bps on the wk to 1.99% (-18 bps YTD)

 

Not to be confused with anything other than a Global #Deflation signal (consumers like it; debtors and their banks do not), the flow-through to the US stock market last week looked a lot like it did in January:

 

  1. Energy stocks (XLE) led losers -1.9% on wk-over-wk at -0.2% YTD
  2. Financials stocks (XLF) were down -0.4% on the wk to -1.5% YTD
  3. Consumer Discretionary stocks (XLY) led gainers, +0.7% on the wk to +5.3% YTD

 

Follow the proverbial performance chasing puck (not to be confused with a furry little forecaster by the name of John Williams) and if you’ve picked your Sector Styles in the US stock market right, you’re beating your competition on both an absolute and relative basis.

 

#Congratulations!

 

Beating beta isn’t easy, but it is achievable. Full loaded with the February v-bottom US stocks put in after a terrible January, neither the Dow nor the SP500 (+1.7% and +2.2% YTD, respectively) are beating the Long Bond (TLT total return +3.3% YTD).

 

But that’s not new either. As you can see in the Chart of The Day, the Long Bond (TLT) has been beating CNBC’s core advertising quote (SP500) handily ever since both growth and inflation started slowing at the beginning of 2014.

 

In addition to picking the right sectors of the SP500 (Housing, Consumer, Healthcare = +5.3-6.8% YTD) and having an overweight position in the Long Bond, the biggest asset allocation we continue to think you should avoid is Commodities:

 

  1. Oil (WTI) is down another -1.4% this morning to $49.09 = down -7.8% YTD
  2. Natural Gas (after a -8% drop last week) is down another -1.3% today at $2.70 = down -6.3% YTD
  3. Coffee Prices #deflated another -8.1% last week and are down over -17% for 2015 YTD

 

Yep, stay with the big cap Consumer Discretionary (XLY) long that is the recipient of that last one, Starbucks (SBUX) – which, incidentally, also has over a 3% weight in the XLY consumption ETF (SBUX +13.9% YTD).

 

Nah, we’re not perma bullish or bearish on anything really. Every sector and asset allocation has a growth and inflation environment that loves them. Our job is to find the nice little furry ones that make me look more like a teddy bear than your thrashing hobgoblin type.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 1.88-2.08%

SPX 2093-2115
USD 94.08-95.67
EUR/USD 1.11-1.13
Oil (WTI) 47.66-53.08
Nat Gas 2.65-2.85

 

Best of luck out there this week,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Hairy Little Forecasters - 03.02.15 chart


China, Europe and Oil

Client Talking Points

CHINA

Thou say they word “stimulus”, and all shall be saved (in stock market terms) – Shanghai Composite rips a +2.3% move to the upside overnight to fresh year-to-date closings high of +6.6% vs. S&P 500 -0.3% (and Nikkei +10.4% year-to-date).

EUROPE

Centrally planned markets continue to go parabolic as the German DAX and Italian MIB Index are up another +0.8-1% this morning to +22.3% and +20.7% year-to-date, respectively – Greece, which was allegedly fixed, down -18% since FEB 24th, but who cares – Lithuania’s stock market is +65% year-to-date, baby! #BurningEuros.

OIL

WTI Oil is down another -0.9% (after dropping -9.6% last week) to $44.45/barrel, taking it right back to the JAN lows where #deflation mattered to the world’s revenue and earnings calculus (it still matters). We have a risk range of $43.26-49.03 now as pervasive USD bullishness keeps our TREND price deck for Oil well below consensus.

 

Asset Allocation

CASH 43% US EQUITIES 13%
INTL EQUITIES 12% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 20% INTL CURRENCIES 12%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
ITB

iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) is a great way to play our long housing call, U.S. #HousingAccelerating remains 1 of the Top 3 Global Macro Themes in the Hedgeye Institutional Themes deck right now. Not only did U.S. home prices accelerate (in rate of change terms) in the Core Logic data this week to +5.7%, but the supply/demand data has been improving throughout the last 3 months.

PENN

Penn National Gaming is the best way to play improving domestic regional gaming trends due to its superior operational management and unit growth opportunities. Catalysts include positive estimate revisions, the opening of the first Massachusetts casino in June, and industry leading earnings growth in 2015 and 2016.

TLT

Low-volatility Long Bonds (TLT) have plenty of room to run. Late-Cycle Economic Indicators are still deteriorating on a TRENDING Basis (Manufacturing, CapEX, inflation) while consumption driven numbers have improved. Inflation readings for January are #SLOWING. We saw deceleration in CPI year-over-year at +0.8% vs. +1.3% prior and month-over-month at -0.4% vs. -0.3% prior. Growth is still #SLOWING with Real GDP growth decelerating at -20 basis points to +2.5% year-over-year for Q4 2014.The GDP deflator decelerated -40 basis points to +1.2% year-over-year.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

Rickards Reveals What He Does Differently (Exclusive Interview With McCullough) https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/42944-jim-rickards-reveals-what-he-does-differently-in-exclusive-interview-w… @JamesGRickards

@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.

-Will Rogers

STAT OF THE DAY

A volcano needs to chill out for 10,000 years before being described as “dormant.”


CHART OF THE DAY: (U.S.) Cash Is King!

CHART OF THE DAY: (U.S.) Cash Is King! - Chart of the Day

 

Editor's note: This is a brief excerpt from Keith McCullough's Morning Newsletter. Click here for more information on how to subscribe.

 

Most people who are in the business of telling me that my being in some cash isn’t cool don’t look as cool as our YTD return in US Cash does. At +11.1% YTD and the US stock market down for 3 straight weeks, US Cash is king!

 

For those same people who didn’t know that a rip-roaring ramp in the US Dollar was going to crash both Foreign Currency and Commodity markets, worldwide – now they know. Here’s what that “stuff” has done in the last 6 months:

 

  1. Euros have crashed, losing -19% of their value for the European people who earned them
  2. Japanese Yens and Canadian Loonies have been devalued by -11.6% and -13.2%, respectively
  3. Brazilian Reals have crashed -28%
  4. Russian Rubles have collapsed by -39%
  5. Commodities (CRB Index, 19 commodities) have also crashed, -25.3% in 6 months
  6. Oil (WTI) has been bludgeoned, losing -50.3% of its “value”, over the same time period

 


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Moving Macro Markets

“Moving things around is hard – really hard.”

-Peter Zeihan

 

In an excellent book that I just cracked open, The Accidental Superpower, Peter Zeihan wasn’t talking about Global Macro markets – he was referring to moving real stuff. And our centrally-muppeteered markets are getting less real, by the day.

 

Moving macro markets around is easy – really easy. And those with un-elected-central-planning-powers know that. So prepare for more, not less, of this. As their economy continues to slow, the Chinese were the latest to issue the almighty “stimulus” word to markets this weekend. The Shanghai Composite closed up +2.3% overnight on that to +6.6% YTD.

 

With the US stock market down -0.3% YTD, all Janet has to do at the Fed’s gravity-smoothing meeting this week is say that she is going to keep the word “patient” and she can fix those lousy relative and absolute US stock market returns. I mean, seriously, Yellen – Lithuania’s stock market is +65% YTD with Draghi burning the Euro – get with the market moving program!

Moving Macro Markets - Central banker cartoon 03.03.2015

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Do we have $100 on the US Dollar Index? Indeed, we do, fellow green-card holding Americans! With the US Dollar Index up another +2.8% last week, those of us paid in US Dollars have seen the purchasing power of our hard-earned currency rise +19.1% in the last 6 months.

 

Oh, dearest Janet, you must stop those of us who have large cash positions in America from getting paid…

 

Most people who are in the business of telling me that my being in some cash isn’t cool don’t look as cool as our YTD return in US Cash does. At +11.1% YTD and the US stock market down for 3 straight weeks, US Cash is king!

 

For those same people who didn’t know that a rip-roaring ramp in the US Dollar was going to crash both Foreign Currency and Commodity markets, worldwide – now they know. Here’s what that “stuff” has done in the last 6 months:

 

  1. Euros have crashed, losing -19% of their value for the European people who earned them
  2. Japanese Yens and Canadian Loonies have been devalued by -11.6% and -13.2%, respectively
  3. Brazilian Reals have crashed -28%
  4. Russian Rubles have collapsed by -39%
  5. Commodities (CRB Index, 19 commodities) have also crashed, -25.3% in 6 months
  6. Oil (WTI) has been bludgeoned, losing -50.3% of its “value”, over the same time period

 

In other non-stock-market news (i.e. economic data), Switzerland reported accelerated #Deflation of -3.6% year-over-year in producer prices this morning. No, that’s not good for the dude who is selling in whatever that is which is hard to move and produce…

 

And that currency-adjusted risk management thought has to be what is on the mind of many investors who have foreign currency risk to both revenues and earnings these days. That’s probably why the 15-day inverse correlations to USD currently look like this:

 

  1. SP500 -0.94
  2. CRB Index -0.75
  3. Gold -0.94

 

That, “folks”, is called #deflation - when the US Dollar goes parabolic as both US and global bond yields fall. Last week, the US 10yr Yield dropped -13 basis points to 2.11% taking it to down -6 basis points for the YTD.

 

Sovereign Bond Yields down was good for what really works during what we call #Quad4 Deflation:

 

  1. US Healthcare Stocks (XLV) up another +0.6% last week to +5.0% YTD
  2. REITS (MSCI Index) +2.4% last week to +1.1% YTD

 

And not so good for what doesn’t work during #Quad4 Deflation:

 

  1. Energy Stocks (XLE) down another -2.8% last week to -5.7% YTD
  2. Emerging Market Stocks (MSCI Index) -3.3% last week to -1.8% YTD

 

The sneaky thing is that as the world’s economy remains in #Quad4 (both growth and inflation, slowing, at the same time), the USA is in #Quad1 for another month (real consumption growth accelerating on real FX adjusted purchasing power, as inflation slows).

 

That’s the main reason why I’ve liked the Russell 2000 over the SP500 so far in 2015. It’s a purer play on the domestic economy, so it didn’t surprise me whatsoever that the Russell (IWM) was +1.2% last week to +2.3% YTD in a down tape for the Dow and SP500.

 

Moving asset allocations around isn’t easy. But if you get both the US Dollar and rates right, it gets less hard.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro risk ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.01-2.22%
SPX 2025-2075

RUT 1
DAX 114
VIX 13.28-17.45

USD 97.99-100.87
EUR/USD 1.03-1.07

Oil (WTI) 43.26-49.03

 

Best of luck out there this week,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Moving Macro Markets - Chart of the Day


March 16, 2015

March 16, 2015 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

March 16, 2015 - Slide2

March 16, 2015 - Slide3

March 16, 2015 - Slide4

March 16, 2015 - Slide5

March 16, 2015 - Slide6

 

BEARISH TRENDS

March 16, 2015 - Slide7

March 16, 2015 - Slide8

March 16, 2015 - Slide9

March 16, 2015 - Slide10

March 16, 2015 - Slide11
March 16, 2015 - Slide12

March 16, 2015 - Slide13


REPLAY: The Macro Show, Live With Keith McCullough 3/16/15

Hedgeye presents The Macro Show for Monday March 16, 2015. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough breaks down what's happening in global macro this morning and takes your questions.  

 


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.61%
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