The Hedgeye Macro team will be hosting a conference call on Tuesday, March 17th at 11:00AM EST to discuss the current state of the domestic labor market and the implications for the path of monetary policy.
We'll present a comprehensive review of the current domestic labor market dynamics, profile the prevailing trends and contextualize the recent data within the context of the labor and economic cycles over the last half-century.
KEY AREAS OF FOCUS WILL INCLUDE:
- The Cycle: We'll detail where we are in the current cycle and what's the likely trajectory for labor fundamentals from here.
- Wage Inflation: While leading labor metrics are approaching levels of peak improvement, wage inflation remains the notable holdout. We'll discuss the dynamics underpinning the ongoing stagnation in wage growth and the outlook for this key input in the Fed's policy calculus.
- Patience or Pre-emption? We'll conclude with a detailed scenario analysis regarding the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.
- Toll-Free Number:
- Toll Number:
- Conference Password: 13604172
***As always, there will be an audio-visual replay distributed after the call.***
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Takeaway: This morning's strong claims print reinforces the conclusion that the labor market remains on solid footing for now.
Below is an excerpt from a detailed breakdown of this morning's initial claims data from Josh Steiner and the Hedgeye Financials team. If you would like to setup a call with Josh or Jonathan or trial their research, please contact firstname.lastname@example.org
The last few weeks saw claims rising steadily, but that changed in the latest week of data. Claims fell by a momentous 36k on a single week SA basis, bringing them back below 300k. Meanwhile, the rolling data improved WoW by 4k to 302k. The YoY RoC in NSA rolling claims slowed to 8.3% this week, but this isn't suprising as YoY RoC should be converging towards zero as we get closer to lapping the frictional floor of 300k. All in all, the data this morning is strong and paints a picture of ongoing stability/improvement in the US labor market.
For the last few months we've been calling out the energy sector as an area of acute weakness amid the broader backdrop of strength for labor. The update there this week is that the energy state complex was relatively flat relative to the rest of the country.
Prior to revision, initial jobless claims fell 31k to 289k from 320k WoW, as the prior week's number was revised up by 5k to 325k.
The headline (unrevised) number shows claims were lower by 36k WoW. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims fell -3.75k WoW to 302.25k.
The 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, another way of evaluating the data, was -8.3% lower YoY, which is a sequential deceleration versus the previous week's YoY change of -8.8%
Takeaway: We reiterate our bearish bias on Emerging Markets, a view we have held since late September. Feel free to email us with follow-up questions.
Watch an audio-visual update of our #EmergingOutflows theme below.
CLICK HERE to download the associated presentation in PDF format (29 slides).
CLICK HERE to access the latest version of our Tactical Asset Class Rotation Model (TACRM). Quantitatively speaking, slowing global growth and falling inflation expectations continue to be priced into global financial markets -- both of which continue to be material headwinds to EM asset prices.
Best of luck out there,
Hedgeye Macro Analyst Darius Dale shares the top three things in Keith's macro notebook this morning.
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