MACAU: WAY BACK IN 2013

Takeaway: Stocks are down a lot but still at July 2013 levels – a time when estimates were higher, the outlook brighter and risks greater.

CALL TO ACTION

It’s been a year since we made the first call of our three pronged short call and we remain bearish on Macau stocks. Yes, the sell side has caught up and most analysts are bearish. While the stocks have fallen a lot, they have only reached July 2013 levels. We’ve made the bear case in many ways over the past year but the purpose of this note is to show that there is downside precedent. In July of 2013, 2015 Street EBITDA estimates were much higher than they are now and the short, intermediate, and long term growth forecast was much greater.

Please see our detailed note: 

http://docs.hedgeye.com/HE_WAY_BACK_IN_2013_3.11.15.pdf