The Euro is down big. Over -11% YTD. We think it gets even weaker.
Takeaway: We are removing EDV from Investing Ideas.
Please note that we are removing EDV from Investing Ideas today.
"It's just a risk management move to not be as long bonds, for now," according to Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. "We're keeping TLT and MUB."
EDV is up 13% since it was added to Investing Ideas on 9/5/14 versus a 2% return for the S&P 500.
Click image to enlarge.
Takeaway: See update below on timing of SeatMe reclassification.
UPDATE: We originally believed revenues from SeatMe (reservation service) would be reclassified from YELP's Other Services segment into its core Local Advertising segment starting in 1Q15. However, that likely happened in 1Q14. We just didn't realize it because the reclassification wasn't explicitly disclosed in any of YELP's filings until its 2014 10-K filed two weeks ago. Given that its previously-reported 2014 quarterly segment revenues haven't changed within its recently-filed 10-K, we have to assume that the change already occurred in 1Q14. Details below. All Key Points remain the same.
- THE MODEL IS DETERIORATING: YELP’s business model isn't sustainable; we're already seeing signs that its model is breaking down at a progressively worse rate within its reported metrics.
- HIDING THE BODIES: In response, management is now manipulating its reported metrics to mask what's really happening. In addition, YELP made a very questionable acquisition (Eat24), and potentially understated its expected revenue contribution (link) to make its core business look better.
- PENDING IMPLOSION: The overriding theme is that these suspect moves aren't any more sustainable than its current business model. Management may buy themselves a short-term reprieve on its stock, but are only raising the sell-side bar on a fading buy-side growth story.
YELP’s Local Advertising segment is riddled by an absurd level of attrition, which is becoming increasingly more challenging to overcome as the company presses up against a limited TAM that can’t support its model. We can already see YELP’s model breaking down in its reported metrics. So in response, management is now manipulating that very data in order to hide what’s really going on.
HIDING THE BODIES
Below are series of suspect moves that management has taken to mask its rampant attrition issues, and overstate the fading strength in its core Local Advertising segment.
- **SEATME ALREADY RECLASSIFIED IN 2014**: We originally believed that its SeatMe (reservation service) would be reclassified into its Local Advertising segment starting in 2015, which would provide an artifical boost to local ad revenues. However, that boost likley happenned in 2014. What confused us was that the SeatMe reclassification was never explicitly disclosed in any of YELP's filings until its 2014 10-K filed a couple weeks ago. Given that its 2014 quarterly segment revenues previously reported haven't changed within its recently-filed 10-K, we have to assume that the change already occurred in 1Q14. Note that the decision to shift SeatMe into its Local Advertising segment must have happened sometime between 3/14/14 and 4/30/14 (i.e. 2013 10-K filing date and 1Q14 earnings release). In short, SeatMe already boosted Local Ad revenues in 2014.
- HIDING THE BODIES: Starting in 2015, YELP will no longer provide its legacy Active Local Business Account metric in favor of a new metric called “Local Advertising Accounts”, which only includes accounts contributing to its Local Advertising Revenue. The implications here is that YELP will buy itself some deniability on our attrition thesis. YELP’s customer repeat rate is based off the legacy account metric that mgmt will be retiring. This means that we can’t explicitly calculate its customer mix (and attrition) moving forward. This gives management deniability, but doesn’t change anything.
- BUYING GROWTH: YELP has a history of making questionable acquisitions to mask weakness elsewhere in its business. With its most recent Eat24 acquisition, there's a good chance that management grossly underestimated Eat24's expected revenue contribution given that associated $36M revenue guidance raise is roughly inline with what Eat24 may have been generating back in 2013 (link).
- SeatMe: Reservation service acquired into 3Q13. SeatMe accounts were reclassified into Active Local Business Accounts beginning 2014, and its revenues are being reclassified in Local Advertising starting 2015.
- Cityvox SAS/Restaurant-Kritik: International competitors acquired in 4Q14 after YELP couldn’t produce revenue growth off its international Qype acquisition from 4Q12.
- Eat24: Food-ordering service acquired in 1Q15. We have no idea how YELP will account for the service, but if it can reclassify its SeatMe reservation service as an Advertising business, there is nothing stopping them from doing the same with Eat24.
The overriding theme is that these suspect moves aren't any more sustainable than its current business model. Management may buy themselves a short-term reprieve on its stock, but are only raising the sell-side bar on an a fading buy-side growth story.
This is how we see the progression of the YELP's earnings releases as we move through the year.
- 1Q15: Let's say YELP knocks the cover off the ball on the 1Q15 release and raises guidance. Consensus then raises estimates even higher as they always have (likely 2H15 weighted, with 2016 even higher).
- 2Q15: the bar is now higher. YELP could produce 2Q15 upside, but its 3Q15 guidance release is likely less impressive, if not light.
- 3Q15: YELP can't guide 4Q15 estimates above consensus estimates since the sell-side has raised the bar too high throughout the year.
- 4Q15: Consensus expectations for 2016 have steadily risen throughout 2015 with the sell-side trying to justify their price targets. Now, YELP needs a much bigger acquisition and/or a more egregious accounting maneuver to distract the street...while hoping no one catches on.
In short, the setup for YELP will become progressively more challenging as we move through 2015 into 2016. Even if the stock pops on the 1Q15 release, it likely ends the year lower than it started once YELP doesn't raise guidance above expectations (likely 2H15).
Let us know if you have any questions, or would like to discuss in more detail.
Hesham Shaaban, CFA
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Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares the top three things in his macro notebook this morning.
The US Dollar Index continues to go parabolic… making another fresh new high at $98.40. That puts it up over +9.0% YTD versus Euros and Yens (which remain flaming balls for devaluation.)
It’s an ugly morning for everything commodities, including Russian stocks which failed @Hedgeye TREND resistance and are down -3% today
As far as #Deflation is concerned, it’s mathematically impossible for the Europeans, Japanese, and Chinese to create reported inflation well into the summer time. Including the commodities bounce to lower-highs in February, Chinese producer prices dropped -4.8% y/y (Norwegian PPI -9.9% y/y).
Newsflash: many producers report lower revenues and earnings during #deflation.
***This is a distillation of some of Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough's notes earlier this morning. For a deeper dive into our thinking on deflation and the market opportunities and economic implications, subscribe to our Morning Newsletter.
Client Talking Points
The U.S. Dollar Index continues to go parabolic, making another new high at $98.40, which puts it +9.1% year-to-date vs. Euros and Yens which remain flaming balls for devaluation – ugly morning for everything commodities, including Russian stocks which failed @Hedgeye TREND resistance and are -3% today.
It’s mathematically impossible for the Europeans, Japanese, and Chinese to create reported inflation well into the summer time – including the commodities bounce to lower-highs in FEB, Chinese producer prices dropped -4.8% year-over-year (Norwegian PPI -9.9% year-over-year) – many producers report lower revenues/earnings during #deflation.
10YR German Yield retesting the lows at 0.31% (Swiss 10YR is negative -0.13) and that puts the spread between the German 10YR and the UST at +188 basis points (widest of the cycle). We think this mean reverts with the UST yield falling again – Janet Yellen just needs to breathe dovish on –t-bonds for that to happen.
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Top Long Ideas
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) is a great way to play our long housing call, U.S. #HousingAccelerating remains 1 of the Top 3 Global Macro Themes in the Hedgeye Institutional Themes deck right now. Not only did U.S. home prices accelerate (in rate of change terms) in the Core Logic data this week to +5.7%, but the supply/demand data has been improving throughout the last 3 months.
Penn National Gaming is the best way to play improving domestic regional gaming trends due to its superior operational management and unit growth opportunities. Catalysts include positive estimate revisions, the opening of the first Massachusetts casino in June, and industry leading earnings growth in 2015 and 2016.
Low-volatility Long Bonds (TLT) have plenty of room to run. Late-Cycle Economic Indicators are still deteriorating on a TRENDING Basis (Manufacturing, CapEX, inflation) while consumption driven numbers have improved. Inflation readings for January are #SLOWING. We saw deceleration in CPI year-over-year at +0.8% vs. +1.3% prior and month-over-month at -0.4% vs. -0.3% prior. Growth is still #SLOWING with Real GDP growth decelerating at -20 basis points to +2.5% year-over-year for Q4 2014.The GDP deflator decelerated -40 basis points to +1.2% year-over-year.
Three for the Road
TWEET OF THE DAY
LIVE @ 1230pm today Healthcare Sector Head @HedgeyeHC Talks SHORT $ZMH & Answers Your Questions Click here to watch: https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/42844-hedgeye-healthcare-sector-head-tom-tobin-talks-short-zmh-and-answers-y
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Tomorrow hopes we have learned something from yesterday.
STAT OF THE DAY
9% of American adults have never sent an email.
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
LONG SIGNALS 80.43%
SHORT SIGNALS 78.34%